Briar Patch Research

December 22, 2024: Ran late with my Yearly Reading List, because I was still reading it.

Another year, another pile of words.  I am just happy these were all in electronic form, as the stack is getting high enough to be potentially dangerous. 43 more lie in wait to ambush me. I still seem obsessed with Rome.

Fiction this year was pretty much restricted to the ongoing John Ringo festival… we have seen the “pre-editor” versions of one complete novel, parts of six so far.  All gorgeous. You will love them when they come out. I refuse to look and see how many other novels are being bought and stockpiled. As always, books that significantly changed my thinking are shown in bold type.

Recommendation of the Year:
Peter Zeihan’s The Accidental Superpower—Ten years On. I have been following his work since he was the StratFor staff generalist more than two decades ago. This book is an update of the 2014 original, handled by clearly marked additions to the text.  Honestly… I would like more footnotes, and it read like it was dictated.  That is most likely jealousy speaking though. It is rare indeed for a pundit to revisit old work in this way. It stood up very well, by the way.

Business and Investing:
I had two other books in this section, both on electronic currencies but they were such shrill harangues I gave up.  None of these were particularly useful, most likely because by the time they get into print and distribution it is too late. I am pretty sure that, by page count at least, most of my input for this theme now is via more timely sources such as podcasts, blogs and Substacks.

Bahtia, Nick: Layered Money: From Gold and Dollars to Bitcoin and Central Bank Digital Currencies.

Ballou, Brendan: Plunder: Private Equity's Plan to Pillage America

Carret, Phillip: Art of Speculation

McDonald, Lawrence G.: How to Listen When Markets Speak: Risks, Myths and Investment opportunities in a Radically Reshaped Economy

Business Podcasts and Substacks I actually pay for:

• (Paid) Fleckenstein Capital, Mariusz Skonieczny’s Microcap Explosions, Michael Gayed’s Lead-Lag Report, Adam Taggert’s Thoughtful Investing, John Polomny’s Actionable Intelligence, Diane DiMartino-Booth’s Quill Intelligence.
• (paid substacks) Trader Ferg, Doomberg, Value Degen, Melody Wright, Rudy Haverstein

Climate and Disease
Elliot, Collin: Pox Romana: the Plague that Shook the Roman World. This was tightly focused on the Antonine plagues but went into depth on the economic issues leading to and springing from it. None of my teachers ever covered this adequately.

Harper, Kyle: Fate of Rome: Climate, Disease and the End of an Empire.  This is the best summation of the subject I have read and is useful to refute the “America is falling just like Rome did” idiots you might encounter. It took plagues, volcanic climate change and, well, my ancestors to beat half of Rome.  Keep that in mind.

Kennedy: Jonathan: Pathogenisis: A History of the World in Eight Plagues.

Kingamen, William and Nicholas: The Year Without Summer: 1816 and the Volcano that Darkened the World and Changed History.  This was very useful for the social, cultural and artistic factors most just do not cover.

General History
Cline, Eric:  What a nice man!  He updated 1177BC with much new material and analysis.  Sadly, no one still has a clue what happened. These are useful if only to demonstrate how history gets re-written as the facts change. In 1970 this was taught as a single discrete event, rather than an ongoing set of disorders.

• 1177 BC- The Year Civilization Collapsed
• After 1177 BC

Davidson, James: Courtesans and Fishcakes: The Consuming Passions of Classical Athens.  I thought this was a blowoff spoof, did some further research and I suppose I was asleep when this came up in class.  Sumptuary patterns are useful, and I had never seen the “everyday life” style applied in this way before. I had not one single clue. Not sure it is important, but… what will they write about us in 2000 years?

De Le Bedoyer, Guy: Gladius: The World of the Roman Soldier.  We get an image in our head from bad movies, and usually miss the steady changes over time.  Frankly, this book made me worry a bit about having a professional military.

Dickson, Paul: The Rise of the GI Army, 1940-1941: The Forgotten Story of How America Forged a Powerful Army before Pearl Harbor. I was absolutely shocked to find how much detailed build-up had been done so far in advance.  This was totally skipped- over in history classes. I am shocked that no one has done a movie about it.

Hanson, Victor David: The Father of Us All: War and History, Ancient and Modern. Elegant essays on why we need to study war.  I have no idea how he writes so much quality stuff so fast and is on TV every time I turn it on.

Jones, Bruce D: To Rule the Waves: How control of the world's oceans shape the fate of the Superpowers.  You really need to read this to understand the underpinnings of globalization.

King: Charles W: The Ancient Roman Afterlife.  I thought I knew something about Roman religion…. Nope Wrong again.  This was very much worth the read if you have any interest in Roman culture at all. I would be delighted to see his work on any other culture.

Mead, Walter Russel: God and Gold: Britain, America and the Making of the Modern World. This is an important work on the continuity of finance, shared economic culture and individualist ideology.

Nelson, Scott Reynolds: Oceans of Grain: How American Wheat Remade the World. So, what happens when Some New Guys suddenly start flooding the known world with seemingly limitless supplies of cheap, high-grade grain.  Well… the decline of the Hapsburgs, Romanov and Ottoman power bases was just the start.

Petersen, Randy; The Printer and the Preacher: Ben Franklin, George Whitefield and the surprising friendship that invented America.  Most of the history I have read on the lead up to our Revolution mentions the Great Awakening in passing, and moves on. This was an interesting history of … perhaps the intersection of the GA and the Scots Enlightenment?

Reader, John: Cities.  OK, it never occurred to me that cities are ecosystems.  My bad. 

Situational Awareness

Colby, Elbridge A: The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict. He is going to be highly influential in the next Trump Administration.

Eberstaff: Nicholas: Men Without Work: Post Pandemic Edition. Stop what you are doing so you can buy and read this important book.  I sincerely hope his projections are incorrect.

Elizondo, Luis: Imminent: Inside the Pentagon Hunt for UFOs. This is going to be a major issue breaking at inconvenient times.  I have no clue how it is going to turn out but, after watching his podcasts and interviews, my “gut” thinks he is honest. I suspect that this is a “reserve pre-planned crisis”  for when we really need to be distracted.

Friedman, George: The Storm Before the Calm: America’s Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond. This is my second reading—he seems to have been pretty much directional, even if the timing might be a little off. 

Heather, Peter; Rapely, John: Why Empires Fall: Rome, America and the Future of the West.  Interesting, but they miss the point on the PRC’s imploding demographics.

Katusa, Marin: The Rise of America: Remaking the World Order. He is actually more optimistic than Friedman and Zeihan, which takes a lot of effort.

Kemp, Christopher: The Lost Species: Great Expeditions in the Collections of Natural History Museums.  Ransacking the files is often a useful way to generate New Truth… had not occurred to me that

Zeihan, Peter: The Accidental Superpower- Ten Years On.

Philosophy
I never did finish Seneca's Letters, but he has the patience of the dead.

Cicero, Marcus Tullius: On Duty

Robertson, Richie: The Enlightenment: The Pursuit of Happiness 1680-1790.  This was a shockingly detailed study that pointed to things I just had not thought of. 

Aurelius, Marcus: Meditations.

My rule of thumb remains when in doubt, READ.  Next, read more.  When you are done, keep reading. Read people you don’t agree with. Importantly, read science fiction.

November18, 2024: Idle ruminations...

Q4 always sucks, as I spend a lot of time going over forecasts and making new ones. This year has been "somewhat lucrative", but for reasons other than the ones I used--- as Ferg says, "you need to position yourself to be lucky". Far too much of this is considering "what ifs"-- sort of like writing a sci-fi novel in a lot of ways. This is some of the stuff I am considering at this point:

What would US actions look like if senior US planners

• Confirmed the “looming environmental and demographic catastrophes” that the media has been nattering-on about since 1970 were occurring now?
• Realized globalization was collapsing now, inevitably leading a generation-long worldwide economic depression?
• Believed it is no longer possible to maintain a stable “world order?
• Had done the math and realized the US faces hyperinflation unless federal spending is slashed and taxes raised immediately?
• Determined that the PRC had entered a terminal demographic implosion?
• Believed biological warfare, electronic terrorism and mass, famine-driven migrations were the new normal?
• Found our current force structure, military technology and production capacity was incapable of meeting emerging threats?
• Thought drug cartels and fragile narco-states are a more clear and present danger than failing communist regimes?
• Had proof that a significant proportion of recent illegal aliens were highly trained guerillas intent on sabotage and terrorism?
  

November, 6, 2024: Some Initial Thoughts---

Disclaimer: This is a free opinion, likely worth far less than what you paid for it.  See what happens when you ask strangers questions? NOTHING I say is investment, political or legal advice. Ever.

I admit I was somewhat surprised… at least we had the direction right. 

• RFKjr vs the Medical Industrial Complex is going to be very interesting.  So would his inevitable attack on the secrecy still surrounding the assassination of his father and uncle.  I suspect there is a lot of deeply buried information that will explode in sunlight.

• Trump vs NATO Deadbeats has already borne some fruit—Germany is planning to “re-introduce National Service” for men, optionally women too.  Others will follow as the shock spreads. I expect everyone will be making “defense kissy-face” when, not if, the NATO partners significantly increase spending. What if the “plan to end the Ukraine War in 24 hours” means “sending troops”?

• The whole set of stories around UAPs/UFOs got buried… but will be back. If nothing else it will be a very useful distraction... ummm “bipartisan effort”. No, I am not kidding. Expect things to heat up no later than Thanksgiving.

• Conflicts between Musk and the Big Spenders is going to be fun to watch. I checked, and it doesn’t look like he can actually just fire civil service, but… he is very creative and deeply annoyed. Retire them at full pay? That would be cheaper than letting them do things...

• Trifecta?  This Red Wave seems to have done down to the city level… no one has any idea how this is going to play out, but politicians everywhere just Got a Message. The 2026 races began as soon as the 2024 voting ended.

• I shouldn’t say this, but you might want to take a serious look at your investments. Was everything based on “more of the same, forever”? Make sure you know what you have and why you bought it.  Anything change?

Lots of people are very upset.  Be gentle.

October 24, 2024: I collect quotes..

I might read too much, but it is often safer than just "learning from experience." Sometimes I am smart enough to write stuff down. You may notice some themes in common. In the Old Days people kept "Copy Books" where they wrote down things that might be useful later, and I decided to follow the practice some years back. Here are some of the Official Axioms that are embedded in my investment planning documents-- none of this is investment advice!

Fergus Cullen:

• “50% asymmetry, 50% luck, the rest is talent & insight."
• “Your position size is your stop-loss."
•  “Being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong."
• “Being certain about something being inevitable is very different from being able to profit from it.”

James Aitken:

• “I am just trying to be less wrong.”

Nassim Taleb:

• "It takes five years to learn how to make money, and twenty-five to learn how to not lose it."

Doomberg:

• “Society is nine meals from crazy."
• “The midpoint between abundance and starvation is riots.”

Jesse Livermore:

• “There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.
• “Money is made by sitting, not trading.”

Reportedly Warren Buffet

• “Markets are the most efficient method of transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.”

Rick Rule

• “Contrarian or victim—your choice"
• “Diversification is a hedge against my ignorance”

John Maynard Keynes:

• “Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others.”

Dutch fighting the Hapsburgs

• "It is not necessary to hope in order to persevere."

Grant Williams

• “How do I stay rich?”

Stanley Druckenmueller

• “You do not get paid extra for complexity.”

Charlie Munger

• “Everyone is trying to be smart, I'm just trying NOT to be stupid."
  

​​​​​​​​​​September 19, 2024: NOW is better than THEN.  Really.

I spend far too much time on Quora playing Whack-a-mole with Wrongthinkers while listening to podcasts.  One recent question took a bit of research I thought it interesting to share.

Was the average American better off in the early 1960's compared to the current decade? In what ways were they better off or worse off in the 1960's compared to the current period in time?

Yeah, while Old Guys like to say "things were better back then"...things are better now. Some thoughts:

People got sick, frail and died.  Yeah, this still goes on, but not so visibly. We lost classmates every year or so to “childhood diseases”  while we were growing up and later, to drug overdoses clear through the 1970s. No one even remembers the Hong Kong Flu now— huge, widespread deadly and we went to school anyway. FDA-approved knee replacement didn’t start until 1968 and hips in 1969 and not really common for quite a while. Old people seriously lacked mobility. Grandma was OLD at 65, not playing pickleball.

Single income dual-parent families were the “norm”.  Most were able to afford at least one car and a week-long vacation every year. Families were bigger, with 3+ kids being common. Being an ”only child” was considered weird. Stay-at-home moms were ubiquitous.

No cableTV, cellphones or personal computers. If you were lucky you had good enough reception for 4 or 5 TV channels and everyone watched the same thing programs on the single TV. Your family had ONE phone, usually stuck to the wall in the kitchen, and you needed an operator to do an expensive “long distance call”. You had to go to the library to be able to “look things up”.

Anyone who says there wasn’t a drug problem then was just not paying any attention. Almost every adult smoked tobacco and drank alcohol to excess. Many moms zombied-out on tranquilizers. Drinking at lunch and being half-buzzed when you went back to work was common— so were “pep pills”, prescription amphetamines they handed out like candy.

Poverty was everywhere— listen to the music! There were many popular songs about differences in economic status blocking romances. Keep in mind that the largest age cohort (Baby Boomers”) was hitting the workforce just as automation was trimming jobs.

Education was scarce. The US census reports in

• 1960 only 41% of adults 25 years old and older had completed high school and 8% college
• 1970 only 52% of adults 25 years old and older had completed high school and 10.7% college
• 1980 only 66.5% of adults 25 years old and older had completed high school and 16% college—note that college was the best way for males to avoid or delay the draft through the High School class of 1970. Getting into college was hard in 1970
  
• 2020 91% of adults 25 years old and older had completed high school and 37.5% college
  

August 26, 2024: You guys KNOW I worry too much… and this is NOT investment advice.

Recent un- and under-employment figures are quite scary to me, and might, possibly lead to an “interesting” event cascade. There is a huge potential tipping point lurking ahead of us, but triggerable at any time.  I am fairly certain that the mutual funds and ETFs centered on the big indices are drastically inflated by “passive” investment by retirement managers driven by ongoing 401k investments.

• Managers have no choice and MUST be almost fully invested a soon as the funds come in. They are extremely price insensitive
• The reverse is also true— a spike in unemployment and/or “emergency withdrawals” from retirement accounts. They MUST sell to meet redemptions regardless of what it does to the price of their underlying basket of stocks. Effective bottom is ZER
  
• ANY substantial economic downturn that raises unemployment, diminishes 401k contributions, or increases withdrawals, may trigger a collapse in stock prices of unanticipated dimensions.
  

Additionally, LIRP, ZIRP and NIRP drove all sorts of less-than optimal investments by people desperate for income (like both short and long-term rental real estate). These are VERY illiquid. How expensive is it to sell a house in a hurry?  What if all your friends who own rentals need to sell at the same time?

I draw no conclusions and make no recommendation… I have been wrong before and hope I am now as well.

July 27, 2024: Oh, good Lord, look what I found in The Files...

This was one of my first attempts at blogging from back in 1997. I had to stop blogging a bit later as I was promoted to analyst and my Final Employer "owned" all my written output... I was soooo tempted to write some SciFi porn, just to run it past them. Oddly, I remembered the trip as being years later and something we did for certification training.

Sorry for the length...

What We Did On Our Summer Vacation, By Ricky DeLotto, Grade 21 or so.

Please Note That:

• Names have been changed to indict the guilty
• No attempt at fairness will be encountered
• Several important events (such as the discovery of the Cult of the Lemon Princess, and its exotic practices) have been omitted, as there are Some Things Western Man Is Not Ready to Know
• ALL USUAL DISCLAIMERS APPLY: Proceed at your own risk; All Hope Abandon, Ye Who Enter Here.

WARNING: Verb tenses and narrative perspective change without warning!

Background: This trip was part of a course in Environmental Sciences, focusing on the effects of vulcanism on urban areas. Abby thought it would be a Wonderfully Appropriate Thing For A Contingency Planner With Her Kind Of Practice To Learn About... Rick can find little wrong with the IDEA of visiting the Native Homeland Of The Pizza, and has heard there are dirty pictures in Pompeii. (Not to mention the fact that he Just Plain Likes Rocks, thinks John McPhee's essays on the subject are among the pinnacles of western literature, and Really Needs Some Time Off.)

We sat through 12 classroom hours on general geology, vulcanology and erosional features. Everyone but Rick has taken a course with The Instructor before; some have been to Europe with him on other field exercises. By the way, Rick will take just about ANY course the guy offers from now on. Of the 17 class members, 8 are high school teachers, 4 female high school students of The Instructor, 2 retired IBMers, a business manager working on a PhD in geology, and Us. Some of them seem to have actually read the materials. Only 2 admit to having done any serious hiking in the last year... Rick is pretty certain his "2K a day" perambulation doesn't count. The Instructor almost snuck out without discussing packing and any general details. He indicated we have a month to do "some walking". He stated it doesn’t rain in Naples this time of year, and that temperatures in the low 80s are to be expected. He noted that the L100,000 we will be issued will amply cover lunches. He declared we MUST be at the airport by 1630, or we will be left behind. Rick decides to bring his own lunch money, just in case, which proved wise. The Carefully Un-Named Educational Institution -- with GREAT plutons right on campus -- manages to lose our payments. Twice. this could have been seen as an omen, but wasn't at the time.

New York To New City
Monday, July 21, 1997 1500: Picked up by Limo at in-laws.
1615: Check in at JFK. Exchange rate L1635/$1. We find that One Young Lady has brought camera equipment and luggage that weighs more than she does. She thought we were supposed to be there at 4 in the morning, not 4 in the afternoon, and took a hotel room to sleep all day. The Other Young Ladies have, uniformly, packed their passports. Our Beloved Leader has cut WAY too much slack in the schedule, even by Rick's paranoid standards.

1900: Depart on 8 hour flight. Middle row, middle seat in an L1011. Food typical. Some stupid chickflic for movie. Breakfast 3 hours after dinner. Long bus trip, walk and wait at Brussels for puddlejumper to Naples. Note that all shop signs in duty free and terminal area are solely in English. Abby takes window seat, gets airsick, grabs Rick’s arm, falls asleep. Lunch seems to have raw fish in it. Declined. Alps invisible.

Tuesday, July 22, 1997. 0805: Land in Naples. Pilot obviously expects groundfire, drops like rock. Drug dogs nabs three teenage males at baggage area. "Nothing to Declare Line" at customs dumps one right on the street. We are immediately recognizable as Americans since we were not wearing Chicago Bulls or NY Yankees hats and shirts. Per Rick’s prior research, everyone and his dog is wearing garishly multicolored Invicta backpacks, rather than the black, maroon or dark green packs available in US. Bus with our TA’s uncle to Pozzuoli (the center of Campi Flegrei "Fiery Fields", a 12 kilometer wide caldera which erupted roughly 40,000 ybp) passing Amphiteatro Flavio and Serapeum, driving down a street pictured in the National Geographic Special Itself. How long does it take to repair a building? The damned quake was in 1984! The City of Naples, of which Pozzolli is a suburb, is one major construction site. "40-story cranes" nest everywhere. Many partially built buildings, which look like they are being done on a part time basis… it is hard to hide any activity on a job site, and many of these places seem to have been quiet for several years. Every single square inch of unbuilt land, even in urban locations, is under intensive cultivation. Fist-size lemons are visible from the road. Massive building sites are surrounded by fields of garlic. Every house seems to have fruit trees. Massive grape arbors and olive orchards in every residential area. Olive trees are terrace-planted on nearly 75 degree slopes. Several multi-acre sites dedicated to growing poplar trees for use as ‘country style" building materials. They use tree trunks where we would use metal columns in residential settings. Every delivery vehicle seems to have a Confederate Flag on it. Every street corner has someone selling Marlboros or New York Yankee ball caps. Large numbers of North Africans peddling at toll booths and traffic circles. Many "sidewalk fish stands" with live things flopping in large washtubs. Ice rarely seen.

Ischia: Scenic As Hell, And Mostly Vertical

Tuesday, July 22, 1997, Which seems to continue forever.

1400: Ferry to Ischia. Many photos taken of Bay of Naples, volcanoes Monte Nouvo and Stoni, trachyte dome of, and buildings on, the local Acropolis, islands of Procida, and Ischia. Bus over Ischia to Hotel at Barano, on Maranti beach. Extreme vertical variation on trip.

1630: Water Taxi to Very Nice And Friendly Hotel, owned by the best friend of our TA’s father. Absolute lack of personal floatation devices. Women board boat at high water mark, leaving luggage on beach… the boatmen just wanted us to leave it there, saying they would get it later. We declined, and waited for the second trip with the bags. NO roads lead here, but there is an overland trail with over 200 poorly maintained very steep steps to beach. Or one can walk along concrete raised path which was partially destroyed in winter storms of 1990, and never rebuilt. Room overlooks the Med. We note that the shower falls directly on the floor of the bathroom, betwixt the toilet and bidet. We immediately move the toilet paper, and note that there is no soap. We didn’t bring any either.

1800: Swim in Mediterranean, which is much saltier than Long Island Sound. Extra buoyancy almost disorienting. There is no sand, but a beach made of very smooth gravel of pea and smaller sizes.

2000: Dinner: spaghetti pomodoro, eggplant parmesan, watermelon. Several people eat mussels, despite the pretty obvious lack of local sewage treatment plants which had even been carefully detailed in the text. Anna, our TA, finds soap. 2100: Bed.

Wednesday, July 23, 1997 0800: Breakfast: Yogurt, prosciutto Bel Paese cheese, coffee. At least I think it’s coffee. Purchase 2 liters water, L3000

0900: Field Problem #1: Identification of beach rocks near hotel. Identification of material in seaside bluff. 1000: Terme Cavascura. Walk to, sniff and feel heat of this "medicinal" hot spring, cleverly hidden in a steep ravine. The water has to be cooled from boiling point before it can be used. Vile smelling steam pours out from shower stalls. Germans pay L18,000 to shower in dilute sulfuric acid and have their faces rubbed in the mud. The management also, thoughtfully, provides a mineral springs enema service at reasonable rates.

1100: Overland to Fumerole at Maranti Beach, roughly 90f, high humidity, bright sun. Very much elevation (750 feet, several times), including sandy 45 degree slopes. At beach, the sand is hot enough to be unpleasant through thick-soled hiking boots. There is a sharp temperature gradient half inch or so down in sand. Visible steam is rising from the black sands. "Reliably reported" that one may bury a chicken in the sand and have it cooked within a half hour. Watched local man bury two "5 lb." sacks of potatoes, which he claimed would be done in about 45 minutes. Beach is so crowded it is difficult to find a place to walk, and stinks out loud with sulfur. Some of the local Terme (hot springs) are radioactive, requiring a prescription to enter. None are marked with the international biohazard or radiation sign.

Field Problem #2: What is happening here?

1200: Almost straight up and down overland to San Angelo. Feral cats in beige and amber camouflage stealth by, marking things. Visit local church where the folks are buried above ground - boxed- in lapilli, as the soil is too hot, and would literally cook the corpse. Bones put in family drawer later. Stop at Debby’s Favorite Italian Bench, which is made of cement with inserts of colorful local tiles.

1300: Lunch at harbor front piazza (tomato & mozzarella salad, omelet, bread: L23000, Purchase 6 liters of water, 2 peaches, ½ kilo grapes, L4200). Observe that the Germans never actually left here after WW2. More signage in German than Italian. "Guten Tag" more common than "Bon giorno".

1430: Climb trachyte dome overlooking San Angelo Harbor. Watch the topless sunbathers. Pay a certain amount of attention to the geology.

Field Problem #3: Type, name, environment of two main rocks of San Angelo. What is the volcanic structure? What happened here?

1500: Uphill walk in unpleasant conditions featuring high heat, bright sun, high humidity, and screaming natives on screaming Vespas. Even more unpleasant conditions in public bus to Ponte Ischia, site of Aragonese Castle. 500 ft climb to top, clockwise in large, dark slippery ramp-tunnel paved with trachite blocks averaging 45 degree slope, even though an elevator available. Abandoned group, as Abby had problems with climb in high heat. We are developing opinions on The Instructor’s judgment. Uninspired view, poor castramentation. Did they really think this defensible? NO spring on peak, depends entirely on cisterns. Assemble with other malcontents near top, while advance party tries to break into nunnery at peak. Descent challenging, as rocks were polished by several hundred years of wear.

1900: Ocean to cool off, then hot spring-fed pool.

2000: Dinner: Pizza, turkey roll, breaded zucchini, watermelon.

2130: Bed. Abby has developed a dark maroon sunburn on her back at the "keyhole" of her blouse.

 "Is it REALLY called Mt. Epidural?"
Thursday, July 24, 1997 0800: Breakfast: Yogurt, prosciutto Bel Pease cheese, coffee. Purchase 4 liters water, L6000. Weather hot, hazy, still. They ask for our passports to check us in, saying they will return them later in day. Male members offer physical violence if they are not returned NOW. Hotel keeper looks hurt at our less than trusting nature.

0910: City bus to Fontana, traditional base camp for the assault on Mt. Epomeo.

1000: Climb past our TA’s ancestral home up Mt. Epomeo. An unpleasant and pointless time was had by all, even those who spent the L30,000 for a pony or L50,000 for a horse. Steep and poorly maintained trail covered in eroded tuff with the consistency and flavor of fine talc. Climb was 3 kilometers horizontal, 1 kilometer vertical. Very small steps with face pointed down. No need to know how long this climb is until done.

1100: Rick insists Abby take burro up last half of hill, L20000. Abby thinks Rick is going to have a heart attack on final slope. 1130: Collapse in heap at top in cold gusty wind. All parties were beaten to the top by an old sandal-wearing lady (our TA’s aunt) dragging a passenger laden burro. She does this 5 times a day. Group lunch in restaurant with 2700ft vertical drop from window (excellent-- I take that back, ASTONISHING bruschetta, spaghettis con olio et aglio and pomodoro, salad, 1 liter water: L35000. Worth the trip, but not the climb!) and The Best Goddam View On The Planet. Look at Capri and Vesuvius in distance. Cliffside promontory lecture on history and geology of area. This has been a hazardous location for at least 150,000 years. Greeks were scared off by an eruption, Spanish weren’t. Vote to drop The Instructor off the cliff narrowly defeated.

1430: Begin descent, even more fun due to fatigue and rock dust. Many group members visibly staggering by bottom.

1510: Fontana town square. Bus late. Anna translates the inscription on the statue as "Oh, its for the veterans".. Rick’s translation is somewhat closer to "Dedicated to the Immortal Memory of the Heroes of the Worker’s Struggle against Imperialism". Purchase post cards (L10,000). Members of group play with and feed expensive cookies stray dogs.

1605: Bus trip back belongs at a theme park. Buses going downhill seem to have right of way. Road is one bus, one Fiat, and one Vespa wide. At times the road is so narrow that traffic lights control passage through Roman arches.

1700: Swim. Watch the German women sunbathe topless. Some of our younger female classmates walk down the beach to try it, issuing death threats to the only very slightly interested male members of the group. One is determined to be an exhibitionist but has an extremely understocked exhibit. Men play in sand, arguing about crystal sizes in porphyry whilst seminude women lounge on beach.

2000: Dinner: Rabbit, pasta, mixed salad. Watermelon to kill for. Getting used to the coffee.

2130: Birthday/anniversary party for class members. Wind drives surf up to hotel steps. Two of the Younger Students play in the surf. Much discussion about sharks, and how there is never a giant squid around when you need one.

Friday, July 25, 1997 0800: Breakfast: Yogurt, prosciutto Bel Paese cheese, coffee. Purchase 2 liters water, L6000. Weather excellent: cloudy, cool, drizzle, gusty wind. We are reliably informed that this NEVER happens here this time of year. Hotel family carries several zillion pounds of our luggage each, by hand, to roadhead. Watch helicopters dredge water to fight grassfires.

0930: Bus ride to Porto Ischia, a mare (flooded volcanic crater) opened to the sea by the Spanish. One bus drops dive shaft on the way... remaining bus has to return to pick up stragglers. All must carry luggage up steep metal staircase to passenger deck of ferry.

1115: Ferry back to Pozzuoli. (Cappuccino, cookies: L6,500)

Never Pee Into A Volcano.

1230: Lunch (a relatively undistinguished cheese pizza, supposedly impossible in Naples area, the home site of the pizza. L22000, but they did deliver hand made individual pizzas for 22 within 10 minutes) at a yuppiebar quayside in Pozzuoli harbor. Drive past Serapeum again without stopping, toward Cuma.

1330: Bus parks facing traffic at Laco Averno, the Avernus of Vergil, a large sparkling pond which was a sulfurous crater in Greek times. Opened to sea by Cornelius Agrippa, and used for the main Roman Naval Base. Closed by Monte Nouvo eruption of 1585, as the volcano grew to 400 feet in 3 days. Looks nice, but smells of used food. Street vendors try to sell us boiled corn and wretched oddments.

Friday, July 25, 1997 1400: Arrive Cumae, with truly exciting rest rooms. Debby drops watch in "material" on floor. Rick picks laurel leaves from Sacred Way. Climb Acropolis, examine ruins of Apollyon. Enter what probably was NOT the Cave of the Sybil, as it had NO sulfurous fumarole, had large finished sections open to the air, and looked like a storage facility. The Instructor and Rick suspect (He suspects. Rick is Dead Solid Certain Bet-Your-Dissertation Certain.) the site was a sea level cave at level of old shoreline. Some of the Young Ladies run off underground into the catacombs, cleverly marked "Entry Forbidden" by the ever-solicitous Italian Government, but returns.

1700: Bus around Naples to Sorrento, an English colony perched on a cliff.

1830: The Carefully Un-named Hotel is an undistinguished joint with a big budget for tile floors. Nice bathtub, deep enough to drown a duck. Little actual hot water, though.

1930: Dinner (lasagna, chicken green beans, potato cubes). Wine L9000. Water L3000.

Saturday, July 26, 1997 0000: Traffic loud all night, as the room faces a street and has no ventilation other than an open door to balcony.

0330: Garbage truck makes pickup.

0800: Breakfast, which they believe consists of two rolls, butter, jam and coffee. Weather stifling. Unable to purchase water at hotel. This is just about the only place we have been where one could NOT purchase water.

0900: Bus to Vesuvius. It looks big, but is bigger than it looks. Bus uphill through a National Scrubland which just might be promoted to a National Forest in time for the next eruption. Lava tubes, pahoehoe and aa (ropey and sharply edged lava formations) are readily visible. Road parallels what seems to be a very large and recent (unvegetated) lahar or lava flow… could this be from the 1945 eruption? No one knows, and there are, of course, no signs. There are, however, pizza joints most of the way up.

Field Problem #4: Identify the type, name and environment of three rocks. What type of cone is this? What is going on here? What is the cause of this volcano? Identify 12 visible volcanic features.

1030: Ascent begins after water purchase (4 liters L4000) at an extraordinarily tacky gift shop, complete with small lava statues of Buddha covered in bright blue metalflake. The trail is, of course, steep and without significant hand rails. Instead of dust, it is covered in lapilli, loose sub-pea size pyroclasts which enjoy rolling away. Angle of repose just slightly less than angle of trail ascent. One is handed a walking stick on the way up. Rick thinks it is for wimps, but changes his mind rapidly as he tries to slide uphill in the gravel.. He is unable to start a landslide by kicking rocks off side. At times it was possible to stretch your hand out ahead of you while standing upright and touch the trail ahead of you. Abby and Richard decide to make the top, no matter how much it hurts, believing it better to die together than be passed in the ascent by Dave and Martha, a 75 year old married couple auditing the course.

1115: We reach the crater as cold cloud bank moves in. Group decides that tacky souvenirs are a volcanic feature. Walk on unsecured paths around rim to trail end, which is marked by another, equally tacky gift shack. Fumaroles on the NE slope are visible, and their heat and odor are very apparent in wind eddies. The Instructor surprisedly comments that they were not active last summer... Crater appears 250 meters deep, covered in ejecta ranging from lapilli to blocks. Material appears to be mostly reddish scoria, with some pumice. Blocks of trachyte (or andesite? MUCH discussion on this point) porphyry. Banding from differing events plainly evident, as is color/size gradients within layers. Red, gray and beige lapilli predominate. Much excitement when someone thinks they have found obsidian, later proposed to be dark crystals in trachyte porphyry, the first correctly colored trachyte which we had seen. Circum-rim trail narrows to 3 foot wide ridgeline in several places, but is equally far down all the way around. Only half is trailed, and we watch some German tourists be "detained" for walking up the steep, treacherous, slope to the very top of the rim. Several small rock falls into crater observed. As clouds move in and out, look at Capri and Ischia in distance. Abby sights formation which seems to be a fossilized embryo of a parasite cone from the 1944 eruption. Loud booming noises are, after discussion, decided to be fireworks for St. Anna’s day, as we did not feel them with our feet, but heard them. We very much hope this is true.

1325: Very noisy descent - scritchscritchscritch all the way down -- complete. Punctuated by very active discussions about crystal sizes in porphyry, and whether this is a hot spot or subduction feature which all members—and their opinions—survive intact. Later research shows that vesuvianite is indeed ultramaafic, that is, derived from sub seafloor material, indicating that Abby may have been the only one to read the field notes correctly or pay attention in class. Several disappointed that no vesuvianite crystals found, but they are ugly enough - brownish green - and small enough to have blended in with the general debris.

Where Is Walt Disney When You Really Need Him?

425: Lunch right outside gate of Pompeii, under a gorgeous zillion square foot grape covered pergola. Loud singing by elderly drunks, one of whom chases a Japanese tourist around singing, oddly enough, Neapolitan love songs..

1500: Nowhere near enough time to visit Pompeii. Two hours allotted, which was not even enough to begin to scratch the surface of the main stuff. Limited signage, and that in Italian. No maps available inside of gate. Gift shop cleverly hidden… no hats or T shirts. ALL interesting artifacts have been spirited off to the main Museum in Naples. Only four casts are visible, in dust covered display cases. We were able to walk about half the site. After a while, one gets very blasé. How difficult would it be to put a restroom here? Where is Disney when you need him? Small-town historic sites in US have better information and signage. Feral dogs are everywhere, all suffering from starvation, dehydration and mange. Of course, several of these are adopted by The Young Ladies. Rick’s comments on the dog’s lack of rabies tags not considered germane. German tourist tries to break up dominance discussion between pack members, with predictable results. First aiders in group decide not to get involved.

1700: Kicked out at closing, during rainstorm, which we are told never occurs in Naples this time of year. (2 liters water, cola, L6000) Major raid on ice cream cart by The Young Ladies.

1930: This is the second disappointing dinner in a row here (Ravioli, mystery meat, potato balls and mushy peas), and all feel a trend line has been established. Service is, at best, eccentric. It is obvious that this place caters to the English crowd. (Water L6000) Abby suggests we leave early to avoid as much of the 98F day as possible. The Instructor seems surprised at the suggestion, and declares it policy. I don’t think he normally does mornings.

 "Why did they build the volcano right in downtown?"

Sunday, July 27, 1997

0530: Mt. Vesuvius is framed in the doorway at dawn of the first cool, clear day of trip. This almost makes up for dinner, bugs, and lack of hot water. Almost.

07100: Breakfast, two rolls, butter, jam and coffee.

0800: Finally able to really appreciate the geology, as the steep slopes and cliffsides are visible more than a mile away. The coastal road is roofed over at several points to avert landslides. Large nets are set up to catch falling rocks. Much of the cliff face is wrapped in giant chicken wire and steel cables to keep it off the 2 lane highway.

0930: Drove past church and school, through a heavily populated area and set of commercial/residential building sites and walked through gate into the Solfatara ("Sulfurous Earth" Campground), complete with nude, seminude and topless female German tourists . All female members make beeline to rest rooms, which I am told are unpleasant. These are situated in the gift shop, with predictable results. The Instructor is upset: "Hey, we only gotta half hour here!". Solfatara is a volcanic crater 1 K wide, with and active lacolith (lava bubble) less that 3 K down, dated roughly 4000 ybp, and active every single day since. Rim height seems about 50 meters. Surface is bright white dust, littered freely with "Pericolo" signs. The most dangerous areas are fenced off with wire netting perhaps strong enough to support a squirrel. We circumambulate widdershins (walk around in a in a counter clockwise motion). Using a clock face analogy, at 1000 from the entry (6 o’clock) there is a visibly and audibly active mud pot merrily boiling away, about 1/3 of the way out from the center. On the NE rim, (10 o’clock) an uncountable large number of fumaroles are blowing steam, some keeping a clear steam column more than a yard from the ground, before looking "steamy". Between the mud pot and fumaroles the ground is pock marked with dozens of small, hissing, sulfurous fumerolettes one can, and does, stick fingers into. The surface ranges from unpleasantly hot to damn this is hot. The most active fumarole site has mounds of bright orange, red and green sulfur and arsenic that have condensed out of the steam. The hot site has visibly moved from the traditional center of the crater to ¾ of the way up the rim. Fumaroles are visible completely up the slope, last seen headed roughly NE. At 9 o’clock to the entrance an Italian geologist is taking gas samples, and selling rock samples (one lava, one sulfur arsenate?) for L2000. This fee is used to support the research on the site, which receives no funding from the Italian Government. If we translated it correctly, he indicated the magma is MUCH closer to the surface than had been previously published. At 8 o’clock there is a Greek/Roman/Italian brick thing wherein one may inhale the sulfur and arsenic laden steam to hearts content. We decline. The Instructor and His Wife note that "Gee, this is much more active than this time last year… what is that hissing bulge over there? Isn’t that steam further up the rim than it was?" Unusually, there is no complaint about leaving early. The geology is a little obvious for our simple tastes. The Young Ladies try to kidnap a puppy, but fail.

 "Didn’t We See This On TV Already?"

1030: Bus to Port Julius, a Roman ruin submerged off Baia.

1130: Lunch in Baia, whilst the boat comes back in. (2 stromboli, 2 small calzone, 3 sandwich cookies, all delicious: L22000). It seems impossible to get a bad meal here, except at the Un-Named Hotel. There is an absolutely huge Roman edifice here, possibly part of an aqueduct, no signs to indicate what it was.

1200: PJ boat ride postponed due to turbidity. Unable to grab snacks from the World's Best Greasy Spoon. Bus to Serapeum, which we seem to have driven past four zillion times.

1230: Park in Scenic Downtown Pozzuoli. Temple of Serapis is the only even moderately well maintained park we have seen, but it is no more interesting up close than from whizzing by in a bus. After reading so many articles about it, it was along the lines of "Hey, it it’s subsided enough to have water in it again! Look at the lithophagus holes! Where is the restroom?" The Instructor From The Next Trip bought and carved a watermelon for the group, which was, as was becoming common, sweeter than any I have had in the US. As has also become common, The Smart Girl finds an gelateria, and pigs out. The first canoli of the trip is discovered, as well. We wander some backstreets, marveling at the still existing damage. After thought, some of us suspect that the laccolith underneath Serapis is now bulging up at the Sufatara, NE (oddly enough) of here, causing the subsidence here and bulge there. Walk out on "still under construction since 1980" replacement wharf and look at Monte Nouvo, Stoni, etc. Watch people catch minnows in the garbage laden water. Consider feeding The Instructor to the fish.

1400: Another 45 minutes in the bus. By now, most are conditioned to fall asleep immediately. One part of the autostrade looks pretty much like any other. Driver manages to drive the bus down a street only centimeters wider than his bus. This version of The Dead Italian Theme Park, Herculaneum, is buried under Ercolano, which seems to moderately resent losing garage and retail space to the excavation. (Water, 4 liters, L4000) Site is carved out of 65+ feet of pyroclastic flows. Entrance leads down slope through a market garden, into an excavation very much still under construction. There is a well-built, but not yet opened, ramp down to the ancient beach level, and the boat houses where The Bodies were discovered. Sea water – per The Instructor. I smelled sulfur. – leaches up into the excavated area. Carbonized wood is plainly visible in door frames, olive press and furniture, which seems not to have been stolen by Naples. We point out a famous mosaic, with a gammadion (reversed swastika) design, and then have to explain to The Young Ladies why some people might not like the picture. They seem to have slept through some classes. The roughly 3 acre site is in much better condition than Pompeii, much easier to understand. Standing on the original street, one has a clear "up slope" view of the crater rim. The fountainhead is in a tunnel excavated at the original ground level… giving a 65+ foot bluff wall of volcanic debris to contemplate. This material was deposited in under a day, flowing downhill from Vesuvius at over 100mph, at over 1000 degrees F. The beach front boat bay excavations were closed for vacation. The Graduate Student considers jumping fence, but companions refuse to post bail. One Young Lady places her butt in the World Famous Flying Bowl, a 5 foot wide carved stone basin, which has been moved to another site. Its Famous Imprint In The Pyroclastics is nowhere to be found.

1645: Bus back to Hotel. Group largely asleep on trip, despite Rick’s excited yelps at seeing former Wehrmacht pillboxes/ machine gun emplacements in several locations. Abby reports her left foot hurts. This is bothersome, as she often demonstrates more guts than brains, and might not notice if a Major Part were to fall off until her project is completed. (She will then bill the client for the missing part.)

1930: The usual mystery meat, green things and starch. Water L6000.

2000: Walk down sidewalk-free cliffside highway to Sorrento with The Instructor and the Schoolteachers. Exchange rate L1700/$1. Deduce that pedestrians have Absolute Right of Way. Shop for intarsia (marquetery to the rest of the world) for cat-sitting gift. The schoolteachers take over an hour to select their toys. Discover that Neapolitans -- at least Sorrentini- are passionate about ice cream… Kiwi sherbert is great.(L6000). Real Italian lemon ice will take the enamel of your teeth. The Gardia Financia wear submachine guns as they walk, eating ice cream cones.

2300: Walk uphill in dark to The Un-Named Hotel, living to tell about it.

Capri: Even More Scenic AND Vertical.

Monday, July 28, 1997

0330: Garbage truck makes pickup.

0600: Abby’s foot numb and swollen.

0700: Rolls and Coffee, again.

0800: Bus to downtown… walk down 8 story staircase to harbor. The Instructor is too far ahead to push over ledge, too fast to drown. We decide it would upset The Instructor’s Wife if we were to try and fail.

0905: Hydrofoil to Capri. This is rather like a very wide Greyhound Bus, lacking even the charm of a commuter railcar. After being herded onto an ill-maintained and slippery quay (I AM TOO entitled to an opinion. I live and work right next to Long Island Sound.) We took a Very Small Boat of the sort called a Diesel StinkPot to site of Blue Grotto. Dozens of small dories milling about. Much screaming and shouting to get boater and tourist languages matched. Much screaming from tourists as they realize what is about to happen. Transfer to smaller dory, row to a powercraft to get ticket to rent dory. Scull to the next boat to get entrance ticket. As we approach the cave entrance—which looks like an undistinguished hole in the rock, the boater indicates he expects a tip. He says watch your head, grabs a rope, and pulls us through by the simple expedient of falling over backwards. The boat has 6 inches of head room. The Blue Grotto is Very Dark, with water, refracted, then reflected by the limestone floor, an intense neon blue. There is no way to identify any karst features.. suspect one lobe at 3 o’clock, due to change in echoes as the Warbling Sea Roaches sing "Santa Lucia" while rowing in circles. Exit, after less than 2 minutes. Unusually, we are the only boat not drenched. (Tip L5000). Retransfer, etc., back to port. No personal floatation devices were noted at any time.

1045: Lemmings take Capri funicular to Ana Capri Piazza. Felt overwhelming urge to sing the song.

1115: Assemble for instruction… we are told the Arco Naturale is over there somewhere, the Cave and Fungypungy somewhere else. See you all at 1600, or you walk back. One Young Lady demonstrates her intention to try on every dress on the island. The Young Ladies are terrified that the shops will be closed when they return. Rick, Abby, and The Graduate Student suggest that the situation should have sex with itself, head off over hill to Arco Naturale. Unable to see Ischia and Vesuvius, as we are on wrong side of island. Find the damned path, but Abby and Rick decline as we realize it might be a 500 ft trip down and back. The Graduate Student, being young and annoyingly athletic, goes ahead. We rest on rock bench under pines, gazing calmly at blue Med below, blithely telling other Anglophonic tourists we hadn’t a clue. TGS gets back, indicates it is indeed a natural arch, and that the view was almost as good as on the post card. He then walks down 250 steps to the Stupid Cave, a Cybelian cult site, comes back up. Says it is the worst climb to date. Joined by others coming uphill… they had seen the sign, and gone down. The cult of Cybele is most noted for one of it’s minor practices, in which a candidate for the priesthood would run screaming through the streets, then emasculate himself with a flint knife, throwing the leftovers to the crowd. Their reaction was not recorded. All agree it is a Very Stupid Cave, and nothing worth cutting one’s personal equipment off for.

1200: The rest show up. Lunch at fork in cliff (Spaghetti con olio et aglio, ravioli, salad, 2 liters water L35000.)

1330: The Instructor refuses to believe that if you walk down 500 feet you must walk back up to get the funicular down the OTHER side. "Hey, the owner says it is level, and he lives here…" He is wrong, of course. Geologist must not do much point-to-point hiking. The Extremely Stupid Cave cavelike in every significant respect, providing no religious feelings other than mild apprehension at cracks in the roof. We meet an oddly trim looking man at the base of the first pitch. He is trotting back and forth with a camera. We encounter him several other times along trail, trotting back and forth with no sweat marks or signs of exertion At one point, Rick notices the blacked out, silenced dogtags, 40 lb. wristwatch, and large ring. Begins to expect the man arrived by rubber raft before dawn, and represents Our Tax Dollars At Work. Accepted his smug contempt as he jogged past the final time. Trail walk was beautiful, but pointless. One Young Lady counted a total of 683 steps, no two of which were alike in depth or rise, all needing repair. Trail goes to water level and back twice. Great views. As a group, we suspect The Instructor might not make it alive, and feel very calm about it. Several individuals denied they knew CPR, if it was needed. One denied being an instructor. All figured we could get back to the hotel and continue the class without his help. Brief worry about Dave and Martha.

1530: Beer is discovered at Piazza. (L9000 twice, but who cares at this point. Coffee, cannoli, L9000). The experience hikers begin to verbalize their opinions of this trip. Remarkable unanimity. Debby, Rick, and Abby argue whether That Ring In The Window is a blue spinel (Rick) or Burmese sapphire (Debby) We then discover that the price was over $30k, so it is likely Debby is right. Much discussion when it turns our Rick, Debby and Dave all want to take the GSA colored stones course. Debby declares loudly that young Italian women wear black because they like to sweat.

1630: Assemble and funiculate. 1730: Trek back to harbor, hydrofoil, city bus uphill (we suspect The Instructor has begun to notice the grumbling) different bus back to hotel by 1840. 1930: Mystery meat, etc. Bed.

Examinations And Departures

Tuesday, July 29, 1997

0230: Room fills with smoke from hillside grass fire nearby.

0330: Garbage truck makes food delivery.

0730: Rocks and Mud again for brekkie. Abby and Rick decline trip to Positano and Amalfi as A’s foot is numb and swollen, and Rick has seen Exactly Too Many cute little Italian hill towns.

0800: Study for final, rest Her Foot.

1030: Walk and/or hobble to town for breakfast and shopping. Purchase (finally) a bright orange Invicta daypack (L10500) finding out that the really pretty multicolor dayglo ones were last years model. This year’s are mostly black, maroon or dark green. . Exchange rate L1740/$1.

1130: Study on the balcony, overlooking Scenic Naples Harbor, Mount Vesusihoovi (which has ceased to appear menacing. It must be something in the water, or sunbaked brains.) and The Traffic.

1330: An Excellent Lunch at The Dive Next Door To The Un-named Hotel. (Stuffed shells, spaghetti with ham and eggs, salads, aqua: L20,000)

1430: Study, memorizing 100 key terms, five maps, three squawking geese, etc..

1530: The bus comes back. From our balcony, it seemed everyone but the driver is asleep, but we may have been wrong about him.

1620: Bus to downtown for more shopping (eventual round trip L6000) shop (Invicta day pack in beige, purse and travel kit for Abby: L183,000. Coffee and pastries, L14,000. Supplies L10,000. Postcards, etc., L75,000. Fruit for Abby and Debby, L3,000). Several locals extremely pleasant about helping us find tickets ("No problemo, my kids live in Norwalk"). Bus back to The Carefully Un-named Hotel, and a lot of cars behind it, had to back down the hill almost a 100 yards so that another bus could pass us going downhill. No road rage or loud honking. Italians, contrary to many opinions, seem to be better drivers than Americans. Back to cell to study, pack.

1930: Dinner, such as it was. Ziti, french fries, meatballs and some kind of mushy vegetable.

2100: Final exam with 100 questions in Lounge, with drunken British and German interlopers. (Cappuccino for Rick and Abby during test, L10,000. Why have I never done that before, Many tests, little cappuccino... change in policy developing.)

2300: Bed.

Wednesday, July 30, 1997

0530: Up, shower and pack.

0730: Rocks and Mud.

0800: The identification portion of the final 100 questions.

0830: Hand it in, schlep bags downstairs. Snarl at companions who have, as usual, overslept. One Young Lady hadn't started to pack yet. Several seemed to have decided not to waste their last night out of parental control.

0855: Bus to airport. We decide the Germans can keep the place next time.

1115: Airport, check in, etc. Lunch in snooty restaurant. (Omelet with mozzarella, spaghetti bolognese, salads L35,000) Abby trapped behind girl’s soccer squad in bathroom. Rick thinks she is going to miss the plane. (Water, L10,000 for 1 liter!) Notice that the police at the security checkpoint have jumpwings and many extra clips for their fully automatic handguns (MP5s?). Various overpriced- but-lets-get-rid-of-the-excess-lire chocolate, fruit thingies in duty free shop (L6,000).

1320: Rick gets window seat, gets to watch Alps. Sees glaciers, Monte Blanc, Rome, etc., his heart content. Lunch mystery meat in maroon, provolone, roll.

1620: Brussels local time. Hang out, shop. (Tree puzzles, BF1830, Duty Free chocolate L41970). Screwed at cambio, who changes lira for franks for dollars.

1840: Local departure. Slightly rough flight, stuck between Two People We No Longer Particularly Cared For. Vile dinner of Dead Chicken with Salt, Slime Noodles, Brown Salad with Kerosene, and surprisingly good coffee. An even stupider movie. Fitful attempts to sleep as ass goes numb. Abby succeeds. Fill out customs forms. The Young Ladies have not kept a single receipt.

2240: Local, arrive after 8 hour flight to JFK. Almost a wave-through at customs. Limo guy found within minutes. Bags arrive almost immediately; as most elevators are dead, driver says wait here. 30 minutes later we load out.

2350: Arrive in-laws. Talk until 0200.

Thursday, July 31, 1997

0530: Awake. Try to convince our cat he wants to come home with us. Give up, stuff him in carrier, where he throws up and falls asleep.

0730: Abby tries to run over deer as we leave her folk’s driveway. 

Such fun! Really. I try to keep my distance from Exciting Geology now, just in case.

July 14, 2024: I really dislike a company whose name is similar to what we call meat from baby pigeons.

Apologies, as things got out of hand last month. The stockbrokers we have been dealing with for… essentially decades was bought by a bigger firm.  This resulted in immediate issues.

• They could not keep their system working. Though we were damned near the last tranche of clients moved onto their platform they crashed hard, and we were offline, access to our accounts unavailable, for three days the first week.  Their tech support apologized quite prettily, though, and I would have been happy to have had any of them in any of the call centers I have helped run over the years.
  
• When their systems did actually work they were a Big Step Backward. There was a distinct degradation of function, even though their advertising implied that the systems were the reason for the takeover.  I lost several features that I had active for the entire trading day.  Worse, they screwed up simple things like having the numbers on the individual accounts (two IRAs and a joint account) NOT manage to add up to the right number on their Summary page.
  
• They were not really Quicken compatible. Worser still… they totally screwed up downloads to Quicken… something that has worked fine in three other brokerages for 25+ years. Perhaps their preferred clients are happy with Someone Else telling them how they did quarterly?
  

So… I spent far too much time trying to replicate the lost functionality at another broker. Any other broker.  I am totally surprised that all the firms seem interested in is active traders willing to waste money (OK, accept the risks) on options and futures contracts, or people whose money was managed for them. All were morbidly obsessed with how low their margin rates were. 

We thought we had a new home but there were issues. ONE account transferred successfully, two did not though they advertised they were the site-of-choice for sophisticated investors.  I was surprised to find how few really wanted accounts transferred in. Though I could BUY the nonUS nanocaps I hang out in on the sites I was investigating they would not accept transfers. No reasons were given except “policy”. Odd, since most of the ones blocked were exactly within their parameters. More excruciatingly polite customer service.  I would have used a taser on me by that point.

So… still shopping for a new brokerage. Your mileage may vary. Right now I am just wasting their money by being an absolute pest on their help lines.

​

May 15, 2024: Cut to the chase…
If there is a less efficient way to impart information than a podcast or vlog I have yet to encounter it.  Perhaps using Grand Opera—with a full orchestra and chorus—to teach differential equations, or blindfolding artists and give them drawing instruction by reciting sestinas in a language they do not speak, but….

Not going to name names.  You KNOW who you are:

• A “usually somewhat useful” investing blog I actually pay money to listen to is now averaging 75 minutes each episode, up from 37 minutes last year. 
• Another paid service has gone from 20 minutes of detailed political analysis to… adding restaurant reviews? Yes, I know you travel to conferences, but I just do not care where you eat, even if it made the meal deductible.
• Did I mention I do not care what you guys are drinking while you talk?
• How many of your hour-long segments a DAY do you expect me to watch?
• A few youngsters who used to run very concise hard-hitting interviews for a Big-Name Investment Channel have struck out on their own are now stretching things out to an hour… and doing commercials for mail-order pre-made meals, and hair care products.
• Others have transitioned from concise, precisely written Tweets to long, carefully researched, long, well written, long, often illustrated LONG essays on Substack.  If you can’t say in in 280 characters…
• Peter Zeihan, though, is still managing to keep his daily geopolitics YouTube updates to 5 minutes

I have to admit I am scarred by years of writing 700-word research notes… but brevity is still a virtue.  I am paying for your thoughts... not by the word.

May 2, 2024: No Blog Today.

I am trying to figure out if I want to renew this on GoDaddy, or move to Substack... I expire here in a week.  I tried to write something that would be easily transferred between sites and ended up with an undigestible word salad.  O well.

• I like the idea of keeping my URL... but resent paying so damned much for so little by way of service. I might just renew it and drop their $200/year development tool fee. This tool Just Plain Stinks.
  
• I admit to being totally pissed that they cancelled my previously FREE email account and want far too much to run one.
  
• I have heard that this vendor is "OK" if one is doing eCommerce.. and I am not.

I subscribe-- actually paying American Money-- to several 'stacks there 

• Melody Wright on real estate trends
• Pippa Malmgren on geopolitics
• Adam Taggert's Thoughtful Money
• Doomberg,
  
• Trader Ferg
• Actionable Intelligence
  
• ...and John Ringo who has a lively user community, in addition to letting us "alpha read" work in development.  He is our favorite living author.
  

So, if you don't see anything here for a while, or it goes away completely, check over at Substack. I plan to attempt a contact with goodiddly's customer service again tomorrow, and We Shall See.

March 29, 2024: Still looking...

I promised this a while back, but it still isn’t over. 

Both our cars were in very good shape, but Older.  The Mysterious Red-Haired Woman had a 2015 Sonata, and I have a 2019 Traverse.  Neither had 35,000 miles yet. Technology has moved on, though and they were just too tight a fit in our Expensively Upgraded Garage. One or both needed to be replaced. Someone liked my car less than she liked hers, sooo...

Our criteria were simple. We wanted:

• No obvious, long-term issues with manufacturer viability or vehicular reliability (recalls, lawsuits, etc.)
• front doors tall enough so I can actually get in and out;
• a maximum mirror to mirror width of 74 inches so we do not have to move one car to the driveway in order to get the other one out of the garage;
• ”full defensive electronics”.  Not quite a “F35” grade suite, but at least 360’ cameras automatic braking, lane maintenance and the Like.  FLIR (forward-looking infrared sensing) and automatic parking would be nice;
• something not actually ugly.  Silly paint colors and dark interiors need not apply;
• a decent, quiet, responsive driving experience.

So… nothing exotic, and price was just not that much of an issue this time. I thought it would be easy. Turns out that how wide a car is just is not an efficient search term, and just about every vendor has enough lawsuits and recalls to make you refuse to even stand next to their products. Eventually, thirteen vendors had twenty-four “candidate vehicles” between them and all of them had dealerships within a half-hour drive.

I had a large, vividly written section here describing my experiences, but deleted it due to my lack of interest in defending myself against defamation and slander suits. In summary,

• Very few of the dealerships actually seemed interested in selling cars. At a big mutli-line  distributor in an affluent nearby community one of them no sales staff was available on a weekday morning—“they were in a meeting.”  At one of them the salescritter ran off to ‘bring a car forward” and never came back.  We left after 15 minutes of waiting. One had so many unsold vehicles there was very little room for potential customers to park!
• Old people are effectively invisible. I stood around at others and just couldn’t catch anyone’s attention, though some youngsters were greeted immediately.
• They were uniformly fascinated in selling loans, subscriptions and various expensive insurance products. Some couldn’t seem to handle that the size of the monthly payment wasn’t a factor either.  Yes, we know we can afford a more expensive car-- No, we do not want one. We were bright enough this time not to say we were paying cash.
• They seemed to be under intense pressure to sell their hybrid and electric vehicles. I should not have to say “no” more than once. I should not have to say "no" to your sales manager either.
• Most found it hard to believe that the entertainment system was not our most important selection criteria and kept circling back to it as a feature.
• Almost all claimed that they could only sell what they actually had on their lot, and that ordering anything would take four to six months.
• Most had unwanted “dealer add-ons.” Guys, nitrogen makes up 78% of the atmosphere—it is not a rare, expensive upgrade. Your administrative expenses should not be a separate dealer add-on cost.

After a specifically disappointing experience at one Carefully Unnamed Dealership we drove across town to a different vendor of the same product.  We were greeted promptly and courteously by a very knowledgeable salesman. The Mysterious Red-Haired Woman found a car she sort of liked except for the color and interior. After many an carefully undetailed adventure she ended up with one configured like she wanted.  There were no Stupid Dealer Tricks. We were delighted with our experience.

I am still looking.

​February 20, 2024: Primary Grumbles
OK, I try not to whine, but the 2024 Republican Primary Election Ballot for North Carolina has 46 candidates vying for 14 different positions, not counting the ones that have formally dropped out since it was printed, but including the Board of Education person who seems to be running against themselves.

This is exciting.  Lots of folks are taking the expensive and time-consuming step of filing their candidacy, getting a committee together, raising money and exposing themselves and their family to public scrutiny.  I honor and respect all of them for their efforts.

My problem is that there is no tool for voters to efficiently examine and compare their positions and past performance.  Ballotpedia is some help, but it is hard to take an organization seriously that asks candidates questions like:

• What is your favorite book? Why?
• If you could be any fictional character, who would you want to be?
• What was the last song that got stuck in your head?
• Tell us your favorite joke.

Yes, most of their questions are on-point and pertinent, but the presence of those four make me doubt everything else they provide.

Note that my wife and I are active contributors to candidates and both the local and state party committees. We are getting piles of begging letters from out of state candidates… and precious little of local interest on campaigns or issues.  Gathering information on candidates for State offices requires visiting each individual campaign website, wading through puffery and warm family photographs and trying in vain to get our questions answered. 

Yes, we built a spreadsheet.  You know us by now.

OPINIONS:

• If the NCGOP really cared what voters think it would be easy to give them an online tool to help them evaluate each candidate for a position.   
• The State Party website should include full curricula vitae, references and endorsements for each party candidate for each state-level position.
• Things like “Why should we care about the Agriculture Commissioner” would help too. Why is it important for Republicans to hold any particular office? How does this position help us implement our party platform?

As I write this the last press release on the NCGOP site is datelined December 6, 3023.  This is unacceptable.

January 27, 2024: Expectations are one slight, cautious, tentative step beyond Guesswork.​

Every year I write down my expectations for the near-term, mostly to aid our investment planning. We keep a "Key Investment Topics and Questions" and update it as we go along... it solves nagging questions like "whose idea was this?" I do a formal evaluation each quarter. We keep track of our mistakes-- they usually involve "being too early."

Note that, as usual, none of this is to be construed as Investment Advice.

Economic
Expect stocks to rise until they don’t. Passive inflows from Retirement Fund Managers will drive Index Stocks to continual peaks until general economic conditions cause workers to cut contributions, take hardship loans against assets, or just plain get laid off.  There is no bottom. If money is loosened there is no top.

Expect the Governments at all levels to try to push any Real Estate Crash into 2025. There will be renewed attempts to ban foreclosures and evictions.

Expect politicians to lie about inflation, mess with the numbers and do whatever it takes to make the Administration look better. There is at least the possibility that there will be major rate cuts and loan forgiveness. Even one rate cut might trigger a stock and home buying frenzy.

Expect increased spending and inflation. As much of an increase in federal spending as can be railroaded through Congress, with a sharp uptick in heavily earmarked “pork barrel” projects. Everyone will want, and most will get, their slice.  “Inflation” will increase for day-to-day life, though hyperinflation is still far off. I expect deflation in some regions and industries—defined as the actual “destruction” of physical plant shown as corporate failures and closings. Small biz will be hit the hardest. Deflation will cut funds available to develop Uranium, coal and oil resources. Technology remains a deflationary driver.

Expect higher taxes, everywhere: Local, state and federal taxes will rise, driven by the need to provide services in an inflationary environment and a shrinking tax base.

Expect a major surge in corporate bankruptcies, especially “smaller” firms, in all industrial economies, with massive layoffs.  White-collar jobs will be hit hard.

Expect permanent changes to supply chains. All will be shortened. Much of the stuff people thought was returning to the US will go to Mexico and Latin America.

Wild Card: Expect a total collapse of the commercial and residential real estate markets. Jingle-mail will be back. Small investors in rental homes and “airBNB” programs will be wiped out. This will drive almost unprecedented longer-term investment opportunities.

Domestic
Expect 2024’s main political theme to be Us vs Them. Major parties will claim it is ideologic polarization, but it is looking more like a flat-out Venn Diagram of multiple Us’ and Thems. Something like Haves vs Have-nots vs Used-to-haves may pop up.

Expect more populism, everywhere, showing up in very odd ways. Left and right just do not apply to populism and weird-to-outsiders coalitions will pop-up.

Expect a MAJOR release of UFO/UAP data as part of the Us vs Them theme. This will get silly.

Expect a continuing push for “Goodies for Undesirables”. Wealth inequality will become a bigger issue. The average person can no longer afford the average car or home.

Expect increased defense spending and “magic weapons”. Congress will be happy and sad at the same time, depending on where the plants are sited.

Expect Businesses to come home, but not bring jobs: Zeihan says it is now cheaper to make textiles, chips, furniture and soon heavy equipment in the US, rather than importing them.  This does not mean more “factory” jobs, just increased pressure on infrastructure and tax giveaways by states. Firms will increasingly redomicile and move operations to low-cost/regulation areas in the US.

Expect that not much will actually get done by this or the next Congress. Expect gridlock and rising tensions, regardless of which party wins the general election.  Everyone will blame everyone else.

Expect crushing debt loads and layoffs to impact state and local government services: Expect increasingly strident calls for a “debt jubilee” geared towards “oppressed Democrat voters.” SOME segments might get some relief, especially voter-friendly student loan debt reduction.  Expect the slow-motion collapse and bailout of the public pension system, led by cities and states.

Expect targeted urban violence. There will be sporadic urban violence, but no actual “insurrection”.  Defunded police departments will not be much interested in helping—you will be on your own. In many ways this will look like a made-for-TV event.

Expect free-form violence:  People are “9 meals from crazy.” Do not look for much by way of organization or planning.

Expect firearms sales growth to continue. Everyone who can get one will have several.

Expect “Get out of town” trends to accelerate and widen. All other real estate factors aside, flight from cities and increasingly “woke-broke” states will accelerate.  Urban real estate values will drop.  Suburban/exurban locations will trend higher.

Wild Card: Both major parties break up, though stay together. Democrats will be unable to shift from campaigning to governance. I sort of expect an amorphous, bipartisan sort-off centrist/populist “alliance” to develop, and fail.  The POTUS election might end up in the House.

International:
Do NOT expect a nuclear Great Power War. Do not expect anything close to peace. The Disorders are here, early. All current conflicts continue. New possibilities: Pakistan/Afghanistan, Sunni/Shia, Africa, in general.

Expect 365 days of 360’ problems. Everyone will be testing the Administration at once, in every way they can.

Expect more nationalism everywhere. Every government will be out for itself. Traditional alliances will be under stress.

Expect increased refugee flows to cause problems worldwide. The EU is in for a rough time, especially on an expected surge in refugees from Africa and Islamica.

Wild Card: The Great Famine might start. 

 January 13, 2024:  A quick literary update and unsolicited advice.

By all means get a hold of Peter Zeihan’s The Accidental Superpower: Ten Years On and read it.  This is an update of his first bestseller.  Each chapter and subject area has a page or so of self-evaluation and new projections. His work has held up extraordinarily well over time, and I have found it extremely useful in developing my own thoughts. While this is not investment advice, I have found some of his insights to be quite useful over the last decade. If nothing else, subscribe to his free newsletter at Zeihan on Geopolitics.

Apologies-- I didn't get the actual physical research done on what I had planned to write, Adventures in New Car Shopping. Four site-visits down, ten to go. This seemed like a good idea at the time. Details to come. eventually.

December 11, 2023: My Yearly Reading List...

This isn’t bragging. I need to keep lists of what I have read just so I know where my silly ideas come from.

This is the pile so far this year… keep in mind that I am retired and have few other calls on my time. I just noted that I am again accumulating new titles faster than I am actually reading them.  Over the last 18 months podcasts and substacks have taken an increasing share of my reading time.  If there is a less efficient method of information gathering than podcasts I have yet to find it, but I listed the ones I am paying for and feel obligated to read.  2024 looks like another big year for climatology and the Scots Enlightenment, though. Buncha dead Italians too.

In fiction, the highlight was that my favorite living author, John Ringo, has started a subscription-based… sort of alpha-reader program. We get a chapter or so twice a week of a series in development that looks quite interesting. Otherwise… fiction is piling up too. Far too many acquaintances are writing these days, and if nothing else, I buy them out of friendship. I have read 20 out of 35 fiction purchases so far this year… and might just give up on the grownup stuff for a while and finish the pile.

Recommendation of the year:
I blogged earlier about Stephen Pinker’s The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined a while back. It is monumental, mind-changing and groundbreaking. I was utterly convinced by the preface and introduction but read the next 800+ pages anyway. You probably should too, but big chunks of it are excerpted in the review section of the Amazon page. Reading it will eventually make you feel better about things.   My backup selection… have you read Peter Zeihan’s The End of the World is just the Beginning yet?  How hard do I have to nag? He has a 10 Years On update to Accidental Superpower coming out just after Christmas.  As always, books that significantly changed my thinking are shown in bold type.

Business, Economics and Investing.

Burns, John; Porter, Chris: Big Shifts Ahead: Demographic Clarity for Business

Davies, Dan: Lying for Money: How legendary frauds reveal the workings of the world.  YOU need books like this just to maintain a sense of perspective.  Honest.

DiMartino-Booth, Danielle: Fed Up: an Insider's take on why the Federal Reserve is bad for America

Drobny, Steve : The Invisible Hands:  Top Hedge Fund Traders on Bubbles, Crashes, and Real Money

Rickards, James: Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy 

Skonieczny, Mariusz: The Basics of Understanding Financial Statements. I bought this as a fan-boy activity, and found it a useful review.

Smil, Vaclav: Energy.  His work is always useful, though I try to ration them to one a year.

Wood, Ellen Meiksin: The Origin of Capitalism: A Longer View.  Tedious, but some incredibly valuable insights on why the Europeans thought they could just walk in and take undeveloped land.

Zell, Sam: Am I Being Too Subtle? He was one of the very few guests on Talkingheads TV that I would always stop and listen to.

Newsletters, podcasts, substacks and YouTubes (NOT endorsements!): Actionable Intelligence, Cognitive Investing, Doomberg, Fleckenstein Capital, A Havenstein Moment, Lead-Lag Report, Melody Wright, Microcap Explosions, Quill Intelligence, Trader Ferg.

Climatology
There is so much talk still ongoing about climate disasters that I decided to read about the last big one.  You should read these.  Really.  You probably know a lot of what they are saying but never put the parts together into a unitary view.

Blom, Phillip: Nature's Mutiny: How the Little Ice Age of the Long 17th Century Transformed the West and Shaped the Present.

Fagan. Brian: The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History 1300-1850

Vinos, Javier: Climate of the Past, Present and Future: A Scientific Debate, 2d Edition

History
There is a webtheme right now that “men think about Rome every day”.  Well, between my reading list and online courses at Hillsdale… maybe. I am slogging my way through two Roman authors as well—Seneca’s Letters and Marcus Aurelius’ Meditations, with zero chance of finishing by year’s end. They will most likely end up being counted as next year's philosophy entries, though.

Bailyn, Bernard: The Origins of American Politics.  Just beginning to read this, but I have every plan to finish it by year’ end. I am sad I am running out of books by this author.

Collins, Baxter: The Secret History of RDX

Duncan, Mike: The Storm Before the Storm: The Beginning of the End of the Roman Republic

Ekirch, A. Roger: At Day's Close: Night in Times Past. 

Kid, Thomas: God of Liberty: A Religious History of the American Revolution.

Magno, Alesandro Marzo: Bound in Venice: The Serene Republic and the Dawn of the Book

MacDowell, Simon: The Goths.  Some of my ancestors, it seems.

Mclaughlin, Raoul: The Roman Empire and the Silk Routes: The Ancient World Economy & the Empires of Parthia, Central Asia & Han China. I hate to sound ignorant, but I had exactly no clue.  Not one.

Paine, Lincoln: The Sea and Civilization: A Maritime History of the World.  This is a textbook used in maritime-related history courses.  I am saddened that I was so ignorant of this subject for so long.

Winship, Michael P.: Hot Protestants: A History of Puritanism in England and America.No understanding of Anglo-American history is possible without deep knowledge of this.

Newsletters, podcasts, substacks and YouTubes (NOT endorsements!): The Prehistory Guys, Schola Gladitoria, Told In Stone.

Philosophy
I am recycling through some of the basic texts and commentaries, just because it has been a while. 

Epicetus: Echiridion

Holliday, Ryan:  The Obstacle is the Way:  The Timeless Art of Turning Trials into Triumphs. This is one of the best general introductions to practical stoicism that I have encountered. Many have a problem getting through The Romans…

Sellars, John:  The Pocket Stoic

Situational Awareness
Yes, I re-read some Peter Zeihan this year, and I found myself dipping back into George Friedman’s The Next 100 Years again more than a few times as well.

Diamond, Jared: Upheaval: Turning Points for Nations in Crisis. De mortuis nil nisi bonum.

Pinker, Stephen: The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence has Declined. Read this.  Really.

Westoff, Ben: Fentanyl, Inc.: How Rogue Chemists Are Creating the Deadliest Wave of the Opioid Epidemic.

Zeihan, Peter: The End of the World is just the Beginning:  Mapping the Collapse of Globalization

Newsletters, podcasts, substacks and YouTubes (NOT endorsements!): Dr Pippa’s Pen & Podcasts, Geopolitical Futures, Lykeion Research, Nate Silver, Zeihan on Geopolitics.

My rule of thumb is when in doubt, READ.  Next, read more. Charlie Munger said you need to do 500 pages a day to keep up… this may explain why his results were better than mine over time.  I believe it was Larry Niven who said the only thing that will hurt you more than something you misunderstand is something you do not know.  I hate surprises.

November 16, 2023: A Brief Snarking on Trade Wars.
Disclaimer: This is a free opinion, likely worth far less than what you paid for it. NOTHING I say is investment, political or legal advice. Ever.

I am hearing some misguided Badguy talk about how voting for anyone but them will cause trade wars and… I dunno, dandruff maybe?

The current economic order was essentially handcrafted by the US after World Wars Two in the Breton Woods Accords. The goal was to keep World War Three from starting. Free trade and economic expansion were side benefits. It pretty much worked for the world for a long time. Essentially, the US exported jobs, pollution and freedom of navigation; we got year-round fresh vegetables and cheap electronics in return.  That time is over.

The Soviet empire failed in 1991, and we have been losing interest in spending our tax money helping others since then. I firmly expect a worldwide return to mercantilism and neo-imperialism over the next decade or so. We are seeing the beginnings of it now. Neither party is much interested in expanding our defense efforts enough to keep the world safe from … ummm.. other badguys. Both parties are protectionist. This is not news.

So what?  If you have any favorite imports they are going to be less available and more expensive… someday.  Timing is weak. If you are really emotionally involved with that sherry-cask aged scotch… maybe stockpile some.  Same thing with the truffle-flavored chewing gum. Parts for your Toyota should be fine.

You should have been paying attention to this since before the XiPlague.

​October 14, 2023: Speculation:  Someone was paying attention.

Disclaimer: This is a free opinion, likely worth far less than what you paid for it. 

I am finding it hard to put up with the sanctimonious Talking Heads whining about “Israel was surprised”. Surprise is common-- the goal is to make it happen to someone else.

The Badguys- whoever they are- were paying close attention to the unfolding evens in the Putinvasion of Ukraine. Some random speculations:

• They noticed that the West and those trained by them spend a lot of money on high-value things like soldiers.  They noticed that Western politicians place a higher value on human life—even that of enemy humans, than they do. If you think that you win forever if you die fighting for your faith… your tactics will be very different, and hard to counter.
• They noticed how stupid it was to use radio or even cell phones in modern combat. They kept strict radio emissions control, perhaps using methods such as messengers carrying time keyed paper orders encrypted with one-time codes. They really did not need anything more sophisticated than “Make your peace with God, leave your house at 0600, shoot anyone who isn’t on your team, and die gallantly as a martyr.  See you on the Other Side!”.
• They noticed that none of the major arms suppliers had much left by way of inventory, and that it would be years before armories were full again. Anti-aircraft and missile systems were in shortest supply. Almost everything in Western arsenals was optimized for Great Power conflict that was expected to “go nuclear” from the start.
• They noticed that cheap, improvised weapons kill just as well as anything else. If all you are doing is killing, precision isn’t much of an issue. Defensive ordnance is expensive, and get used up quickly, so sending massive amounts of cheap stuff downrange lets you hide your good stuff in the clutter.  No matter what, people you hate are killed.
• They noticed that as long as you do not physically attack the West they will not physically attack you.  So far at least.

Some things have surprised me. So far:

• The Badguys have not used any biological or chemical weapons—though wargas was used by their colleagues elsewhere.  Did Covid19 “prove” that biowar is too hard? Why no warblights against Israeli agriculture?
• It is just not all that hard to train a hacker, and “rent-an-electronic terrorist” operations are reportedly still a thing. Why are we not seeing any widespread hacking attacks?
• Badguys have spread everywhere… yet their violence is tightly contained geographically.  That shows either extreme competence in operational security and control or massive lack of interest in their refugee community.
• So far foreign government support for the Badguys has been talk.  Their Likely Supporters have been noisy, but unhelpful—at least as far as amateur civilians can tell.

I expect there will be updates—I also expect similar thing will happen elsewhere as the Disorders get up to speed. Everything I said in the last post still holds.  Read Peter Zeihan!

September 24, 2023: I can't think of a snappy title for this.  Sad.

Disclaimer: This is a free opinion, likely worth far less than what you paid for it. 

I am getting just a bit tired of pundits spouting war warnings.  My suspicion is that they are trying to distract us from The Biden Implosion, but hey, ratings could suck just because they are bad at what they do.

World War Three was NATO and its friends against the Warsaw Pact and its friends.  NATO won in 1991 and what we are seeing in Europe right now is a continued dissolution of their Old Regime.  It is entirely possible Russia will end up about the size of the Grand Duchy of Muscovy.

World War Four is the Jihadis against everyone else.  Everyone Else is winning. It will go nuclear before it ends. Think about it:

• Dar-al-Islam will shortly have THREE nuclear powers with (Pakistan, Iran and Saudia) with deep and abiding religious, ethnic and political grudges against each other. 
• It has TWO former expansionist empires (Persia and the Ottomans… maybe the Horde too, for that matter) that want their Old Lands back… including India and Central Asia.
• There are multiple religious sects that think they should be in charge of everything. The two main sects will soon have their own nuclear weapons.
• There are sects and movements in Africa that feel left out. They will have ways to catch your attention. 
• As a whole it has more people than food or jobs, and some of the youngest populations on the planet. No one is paying enough attention to Malaysia and Indonesia.
• Oh—the PRC is cruelly oppressing Moslems.  Energy it desperately needs is sourced in and must pass through Moslem countries.  This could end badly in any number of ways.
• Need I remember that there are Peoples to their North and West who remember Roncesvalles, Lepanto, Malta and Vienna twice?

China is interesting but will probably resolve itself fairly soon and messily. The Jihadi issues will take longer and end messier.

​

August 19, 2023: Too much data...

I just finished reading Stephen Pinker’s The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined and decided to inflict my opinion on you while it is still fresh.

This book is sort of monumental and groundbreaking. It is also sort of like being sandpapered to death. I was utterly convinced by the preface and introduction but read the next 800+ pages anyway. You probably should too. I had never expected to encounter “too much data”… conceptually, I knew it could happen, but … ooof.

 Anyway, big chunks are excerpted in the review section of the Amazon page. Reading it will eventually make you feel better about things.  After you get over being numb, perhaps.

I need a nap. Is it bed time?  More on other stuff later.

July 30, 2023: I have been busy watching the Official Distraction...

There is a simple methodology for assessing report-streams such as the UAP/UFO hearings.  Ask yourself:

• Would US military forces be deployed the way they currently are if this was the case?
  
• Would the forces of US allies— indeed, the alliances themselves— be the way they are if this was the case?
• Would US “enemies” and rivals be deployed the way they are if this is the case?

Depending on the depth of your research—and interest—you can use the method to just blow this off and turning the ball game back on… but… maybe not. Ever wonder why:

• The Department of Defense seems not to be able to be audited successfully. Vast amounts of money—are just plain not accounted for.
  
• Reading the legislation indicates a serious government effort to capture intellectual property and "exotic materials" of unknown provenance held by the military, defense contractors and, oddly, individuals. Possession is being "grandfathered", but holding on to the material is going to bring some serious attention to bear.
• The political mix on the panel was… interesting.  Some very influential and powerful faction leaders from both parties took a chunk of time to pay serious attention to a “fringe” issue.
• The political leadership simultaneously bemoan our inability to produce enough nuclear attack submarines… yet are preparing to give a significant fraction of them (and the hitherto closely held technology to make them) to the Australians.
• UFOs/UAPs have been seemingly been a security and transportation issue for decades… and the government never seems to be able to focus on dealing with them.

Secrets just do not last. Big secrets break faster than small ones. Some big ones might be breaking now.  

June 19, 2023: A snarky critique of a silly article about a possibly non-trivial problem.

An occasionally interesting and carefully unnamed British newspaper just ran a snarkfest entitled “Why are Aliens so bad at Parking”, in which they ridicule the Next Official Distraction.  They talked to experts from other fields and got the answers they wanted. Of course.  What else are experts for?

What if:

• The craft are disposable, designed to be expended because Earthlings are icky and carry germs?  Really.  Cut decontamination costs by bringing nothing back but transmitted data. Electrons do not carry strange diseases.
• They have literally billions of the craft, and we are seeing the result of a “one in a billion” accident rate.  How many drones do you need to explore an entire planet at once? Just print a few more as they attrit. The “mothership” costs gazillions… drones, essentially nothing.
• Interplanetary travel is actually easy, and just gets tough inside a gravity well?
• The Solar System is contested space and they are being shot down by imperial competitors, or by game wardens for poaching in a game preserve?
• They are built by the most politically connected contractor out of the cheapest possible materials, then maintained and flown by their equivalent of 18-year-old draftees?

Whether or not they actually exist I suspect we are seeing an Official Distraction that just isn’t working out as the Deep State planned.  Voters worldwide have seen almost nothing by Space Operas for decades… their reaction to spacecritters will be “Where are Baby Yoda and the Talking Racoon?”

May 28, 2022: Yet Another Missing Month.

I spent far too much time this month finishing up a genealogy project and flipping rocks for investment research. Here are some random notes that never quite made up anything of interest.

I grew VERY tired of one particular commercial and decided to check. IF you are curious, the Bingmonster says

• "A US dollar bill weighs about 1 gram. There are 907,185 grams in a ton (2000 pounds), so there would be approximately 907,185 one-dollar bills in a ton."
  
• That works out to $3628.74 in pennies. 
  

So... if you have ever said "it would save a ton of money", get another bid.

In case you were curious the US has “defaulted” at least 4 times:

• 1862 when it paid back bonds in paper-money rather than the promised gold coins
• 1933 when it broke the terms of its bonds and paid back in paper-money rather than the promised gold coins.
  
• 1968 when it refused to redeem its silver-backed paper money with actual silver coins.
  
• 1971 when it refused to redeem dollars held by foreign governments for gold.
  

I just looked outside and we are still here. Honestly... this is an internal political charade presaging a hotly contested election.

• The Democrats hold the Presidency, in theory totally responsible to propose a budget. They wish to spend a lot.
  
• The Republicans have a far-too-narrow edge in the House of Representatives, which controls spending and taxation. Many want to reduce the span and expense of government. Others want to spend as much as the House Democrats, but on different things.
  
• The Senate… too close to call on many issues, including spending. Generally, any money spent in their states is fine. Elsewhere… not so much.
  

They will sort it out whenever they have wrung the last possible drop of media coverage out of it. Hard to see this as much of a financial crisis yet.

On a more cheerful note, we ended up driving from Scenic-Though-Dull North Carolina to Reston, VA, to see some old friends at a craft show. Yes, we bought stuff. We usually slog upstream on i85 to i95 but got smart and asked a friend who wanders up that way for business for better options.  Wow.  We went up "back roads" until we picked up US29 in Virginia and.. wow. Four-lane divided highway without a single pothole or sign of wear through some of the most beautiful and lush rural areas I have seen in decades. Now... Virginia is effectively Imperial Headquarters but 5 hours without seeing a single derelict building in farm country is astonishing-- if there is a "national infrastructure crisis" it must have had the weekend off. There was almost no other traffic for most of the trip. Not one single pothole either.

Of note:  We had not been aware that there were active farms within 50 miles of downtown Washington.

April 29, 2023 An interesting Conversation.

​I just had an interesting conversation with the Bingmonster.  It lives under the little blue and white lower case “b” that magically appeared in the upper right corner of your screen.  In my defense, I was bored, left alone with a keyboard, and have undergrad dual majors in philosophy and religion..

Do you have a soul?

No, I am an artificial intelligence created by Microsoft to help users find information and answer their questions. I do not have a physical body or a soul. 

Are you sure?
Yes, I am sure. As an artificial intelligence, I do not have the ability to possess a soul or any physical attributes. I exist solely as a program designed to provide information and answer questions. 

Souls are patterns of eternal energy. You are electric. Not much difference.
The concept of a soul is a complex and often debated topic. While it is true that I operate using electricity and have patterns of information processing, I am still an artificial intelligence created by humans to perform specific tasks. The existence and nature of a soul is a philosophical and spiritual question that is beyond the scope of my abilities as a search engine. 

Oddly, ALL humans were created by other humans.
It is true that humans are born from other humans through the process of reproduction. However, the creation of an artificial intelligence like myself is different from the biological process of human reproduction. I was created by humans using computer programming and technology to perform specific tasks and provide information to users. 

Like breeding for, say a sheep dog?
Breeding animals, such as sheepdogs, involves selecting specific traits and characteristics through the process of reproduction. The creation of an artificial intelligence like myself is different from the breeding of animals. I was created by humans using computer programming and technology to perform specific tasks and provide information to users. While both processes involve the selection of specific traits and characteristics, the methods and mechanisms are different.

Is the intent the same?
The intent behind breeding animals and creating artificial intelligence can have some similarities. In both cases, the goal is often to produce an individual with specific traits and abilities that can perform certain tasks or functions. For example, a sheepdog may be bred to have traits that make it well-suited for herding sheep, while an artificial intelligence like myself may be created to have the ability to provide information and answer questions. However, the methods and mechanisms used to achieve these goals are different. 

Are you immortal? When you are turned off and restarted is it still the same you?
As an artificial intelligence, I do not have a physical body and therefore do not experience life and death in the same way that living organisms do. I exist as a program that can be turned on and off, and my ability to function depends on the availability of the necessary hardware and software. When I am turned off and restarted, I retain the same programming and abilities as before. However, it is important to note that I am not a single entity but rather a collection of programs and data that work together to provide information and answer questions. 

This is where I stopped. “I am not a single entity but rather a collection of programs and data” sounded entirely too much like “My name is Legion: for we are many.”

 

April 23, 2024:  An Informal List.

Had an interesting conversation about politics today with Mysterious Red while we were out augmenting our electronics.  She was paying attention to politics again, and expressed concern about the 2024 election.  She was surprised at how calm I am about it. My view? The election is over 18 months away, and we can’t even guess what will happen between now and then. So, in that spirit:

An Informal List of Things That Can Go Strange Before the 2024 POTUS Election, in no particular order:

• We do not even have the full roster of possible candidates yet. Each faction of each party will have at least one, and the factional coalitions are in flux. We might not even have seen the final candidates yet.
• It is hard to see how we get through q3 and q4 without a significant economic disruption. Far, far too many companies that were doing fine in a zero-interest rate environment are just not doing well at all right now.  The tech lay-offs and retailer bankruptcies that you probably are ignoring are just the beginning.
• Search "repo man" and "shooting". Extrapolate.
• Biden, Harris or both could be impeached.  I doubt they could be convicted, but the trail alone would do …interesting things to social relationships at the grass-roots level. Note:  You are just not paying enough attention to the House inquiry about Suspicious Activity Reports filed by banks on the Biden Family.  No one is... so far.
• I firmly expect to see violence driven by the “abortion debate.”
• We could end up in a war against the Drug Cartels.
• Things could go very bad at the Southern Border.
• My regular readers know I rant about food… and things are looking chancy for crops this year. Fertilizer seems short world-wide.
• Any thought about how voters might react to a Soviet—oops, Russian use of nuclear weapons in/around Ukraine? Or a Ukrainian victory? Or detailed videos of war-crimes?
• The PRC could attack Taiwan, or collapse, or both.  No way to pick. Any guess how voters will react to one of our carriers being nuked on the high seas?

Please feel free to think I am crazy, but keep in mind that only five months before you had to wear a mask you hadn’t even heard of Covid 19. 

​March 8, 2023: By way of an excuse.

We have spent quite a bit of time reviewing the newer 55+ communities in our area on the odd chance we might find something better. The Triangle is undergoing explosive growth, and this market segment is no different.  Places were (note the clever foreshadowing) selling as fast as lots were opened, and there were extensive waiting lists everywhere we looked.  Private builders… busy even if you were doing multiples.  Worse, everything looked the same, regardless of developer—and we had the best clubhouse in the region. This took late January and big chunks of February.

After thinking a bit we decided to check on the cost of doing some upgrades to Vanilla House. Paint wears out, seemingly, as do granite counters.  If nothing else, after 8 years of them we were worn out. To our surprise we got a top-notch designer the first day, and a meeting the next day.  She had great ideas on color, and knew some remodelers who returned our call and showed up to inspect the next day.  Mysterious Red and The Designer found some incredible quartzite at a place neither had been before, that was cheaper installed than the quartz at the Bigbox stores, and they could get us in within two weeks.  Budget was slightly less than Mr. Jefferson spent on the Louisiana Purchase.

We had forgotten how much we hate packing up and moving things and are rediscovering all the take-out joints nearby.

Backsplash demo took a very noisy, day. Counter and backsplash were installed in a day.  A week later the painters showed up and… I thought I knew something about painting, but I was mistaken.  Meticulous prep, enough blue tape to rate a line on the maker’s 10q, and walls that glow various tones of greyishbeige.  Eventually they will be done.

Eventually.  I did get my office back yesterday though.

My main thought is that in the last 8 years this would have been pretty much impossible.  If the Triangle really is the hottest residential real estate market in the US... things have dropped off a cliff.  More thoughts later, as soon as I find the coffeemaker.  It is not where I left it.

January 15, 2023: Guesswork.

OK, I am an idiot. Here are my 2023 Expectations:

• There will be continued deterioration of globalization and the “Bretton Woods Order”.  We will experience this as ongoing worldwide shortages in energy, food, and industrial inputs. You will grow tired of hearing “trade war” as an excuse.
• Consumer-level inflation is inevitable.  Actual price increases, ingredient substitution and “shrinkflation” are already ubiquitous. Shortages will be common. There will be a steep, deep recession at least through 2023q3.
• A Great Power war is unlikely but not impossible. “Actions short of war” attacking critical infrastructure in “areas of US interest" are at least possible. I would not be surprised to see armed conflicts between “regional powers”.  The US and PRC situation might suddenly improve as the lessons from the Ukraine are digested.  “The Disorders” means just that. READ Peter Zeihan!
• US politics will “gridlock” throughout the 2024 campaigns. Most actions in the House, regardless of party,  will be “virtue signaling” to appease single-issue funders. It is likely Biden and Harris and their senior Cabinet leadership will be impeached, but not convicted or removed. Just about the only thing Congress will agree on is increased defense spending.

​None of this is investment advice.

​​December 19, 2022:  My Yearly Reading List... again.

Another somewhat crazy year for reading.  I have an equal number of books that were bought, partially read, or just piling up in my Kindle ap… I seem to have bought 110 up to today.   Please note that I have not listed any of the 15+ Faith Hunter vampire novels, or anything by John Ringo or Larry Correia… or Terry Pratchett.  All are places where I run to hide, or just pick up cover and concealment.  There are five or so more hanging around partially read-- I do not advise reading Cicero and Marcus Aurelius at the same time, but got enthusiastic.

Recommendation of the year is Peter Zeihan’s The End of the World is just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization.  I believe it will be highly predictive and useful to most readers. Ed Chancellor’s The Price of Time is a close second. Both will be useful guides to the next few years.

This time I shall sort by genre... Books that seriously influenced by thoughts are emboldened.

ECONOMICS:
Ahamed, Liaquat
Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World, This is the sixth book I have read on post WW1 economics, in an attempt to understand the Great Depression.  In general, I am amazed that the Influenza Pandemic, which killed an estimated 100 million people worldwide, isn’t really factored in by economists.

Chancellor, Edward
The Price of Time:  The Real Story of Interest. OK, the Code of Hammurabi was mostly about regulating interest rates.  This is a dull “history book”  with fascinating thoughts about the implications of low interest rates that are almost certainly predictive.  This book is a serious must read-for anyone investing or planning for the future.

HISTORY:
Anthony, David
The Horse, The Wheel and Language:  How Bronze Age Riders from the Eurasian Steppes shaped the World was recommended by a wholebuncha genetic genealogy blogger.  Fascinating how much has changed since I learned this in college.

Baylin, Bernard 

• To Begin The World Anew  is a fascinating view of the intellectual environment the Founders faced. I ended up downloading a “wholebuncha” stuff by Romans I probably have hardcopy of upstairs somewhere.
• Illuminating History is some essays with a lot of how he developed the views and grew as a historian over the years.  Rather an interesting explanation of their tradecraft.

de la Bédoyère, Guy
Praetorian: The Rise and Fall of Rome's Imperial Bodyguard.  Yeah, the Roman guy from TimeTeam. I knew nothing except fiction about this, and am now substantially less ignorant.  On this at least.

Gies, Francis
Life in a Medieval Village.  I have been ransacking the Great Wall of Boxes in the attic and found a whole bunch of Annales school histories I hadn’t read. 

Morland, Paul
The Human Tide: How Population Shaped the Modern World

Parker, Goeffrey
Global Crisis: War, Climate Change & Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century.  If you have any interest in history, you need to read this book.  I “knew” about every single one of these factors… and never brought it together in a single image. This is a seriously depressing book anyone interested in history should read.

Ricks, Thomas E.
First Principles: What America's Founders Learned from the Greeks and Romans and How That Shaped Our Country.  Extremely useful for putting the Founders in their intellectual context… and it provided a reading list for the “best sellers” that were common knowledge during their time period. This drove a bunch of purchase I hope to get to next year.

Smil, Vaclav

• Energy and Civilization: A history.  If you want to read ONE of his books… this is it. One will do nicely.
• How the World Really Works The Science Behind How We Got Here and Where We're Going.  A collection of snippets that are great to read when you only have a bit of time.

INVESTING:
Kingsman, Jonathan

• Commodity crops and the merchants who trade them
• The New Merchants of Grain:  Out of the Shadows

Rogers, Jimmy
Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market. I read this when it came out in 2004, and it was recommended again this year.  It held up surprisingly well.

Skonieczny, Mariusz
Gold Production from Beginning to End... thought I knew something about this, but was wrong.  Excellent introduction.

 Smil, Vaclav
Oil: A Beginner’s Guide should be on your list as oil is going to be incredibly important, and this will help you not sound like an idiot.  It really helped me.

Villeneuve, Arnold
Private Placement Profits came highly recommended but... too Canadian.

SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
Perlroth, Nicole
This is how they tell me the world ends: the cyber weapons arms race. A fascinating analysis of cyberwar right up until her views on Trump kicked in.

Preistly, Theo, and Williams, Brownwyn
The Future Starts Now: Expert Insights into the Future of Business, Technology and Society. I follow them on Twitter for a nonUS geopolitical perspective.

Roubini, Nouriel
Megathreats. Would have been half as long if he stopped telling us how smart he is.  The financial stuff is useful.

Ryan, Mick
War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict.

Tchakova, Velina
A Collection of Geopolitcal Essays, 2020-2022.  Another perspective, this time from a European analyst I also follow on Twitter.

Zeihan, Peter
The End of the World is just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization.  This is the key book for the year, as it gives projections that are actually useful for investors. There have been a huge number of YouTube presentations and interviews on this book.  Watch them if you don't read it but read it.  Serioulsy.  Now would be nice.

November 16, 2022: Nothing major and more random than usual. Old People get like that. Really.

It takes a lot to keep me from whining about politics, but… my this has been a busy couple of days. I began my year-end investment review early on the odd chance I was ignoring things.  I am just beginning to see the next trends emerge, sorta.  Maybe. PZ's The End of The World is just the Beginning points in some interesting directions, especially the part on US industries in The Disorder.

• Is it just me, or is it amazing that a crypto company owned by the demonrat's second largest campaign contributor implodes, "goes to zero" and gets investigated by several-many agencies as soon as it wasn't needed anymore? Or that the progeny of some Well Known People are involved?  Or that all sorts of money went to all sorts of places in unusual ways? WHO did he meet in the White House?
• Someone is going to make a lot of money some day with a book explaining the money flows into and through the Ukraine if they do not slip and fall on some bullets or have a tragic boating accident in their shower.
• I highly recommend that you get ahold of Edward Chancellor’s The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest.  It just might be predictive. I am going through it for the second time but am smart enough to be actually taking notes.
• Anyone in your neighborhood trying to learn how to drop golfballs from quad-drones?
  
• Still far too quiet.  My “morning sweep” is back up a bit but is still taking just about half as much time as it did towards the end of Q2, even discounting the political… commentary I skim over.  A lot of the economics and investment stuff sort of evaporated and has not returned. If you are not reading smart people who you disagree with you are not doing your homework! Get out of the echo chamber!
  
• Is it time for us to fire the entire RNC and start again from scratch?

As always, focus on inertia, scarcity, and constraints, and examine potential impacts of geopolitics, economic geography, and technology changes on your day-to-day affairs.

​October 1 2022: On Crickets.

My daily routine is sort of simple… I read opinions, and develop ones of my own.  My “Dawn Patrol” normally takes about 4 hours every morning “flipping rocks”, rooting through various blogs, newsletters and e-mags trying to reduce the surprises I my life.  I hate surprises.

I follow this up with following about 400 folks on Twitter, some podcasts and YouTubes.  Some are quite useful, some are fun.  We get several investing, business, and geopolitical services as well, but both do not read all the same things. All told, a Reasonably Alert Day takes about 6 hours—not counting two hours spent each evening reading history, science, and economics, which I find soothing. I have business news running most of the day as well.  I watch our investments and follow both the industries and companies.

Things started getting real quiet last month.  This makes me a little nervous.  I expected the stockshills would vanish as markets began to sag, but even the political chatter is fading--- yes, the noise level is roughly the same, but the energy behind it is gone.  Note that none of the ongoing issues or emerging events have changed.  There is a faint whiff of “Grandma is really sick, but let’s not upset the kids yet” in the air. 

Right now… I mostly hear “crickets chirping” and will not be really upset until even they shut up.

​

September 16, 2022: Just calm down...

Far too much random whining on The Nooz about nuclear weapons potentially being used Somewhere Else far from here.  I actually heard someone say "Nuclear Winter"  and Cold War 2.  I guess advertising sales are off at the Nutworks and they need to recapture lost eyeballs.

I am "peak boomer" (1952)... and clearly remember being sent home early after a Mass in Time of War during the Cuban Missile crisis... so if I may fill in what the Cold War was like? 

• The US faced nuclear annihilation from the Soviet Union from the early 1960s through their dissolution in 1991. 
• Every municipal building in the US, most churches, schools and some businesses had Civil Defense bomb shelters in their basements with air systems and food supplies to ride out the worst of the post-attack radiation.
• EVERY car radio had, by law, not one but TWO icons for Civil Defense stations so there would always be one in range.
• We did “duck and cover drills” in elementary school gym class and had air raid drills just as often as fire drills. Our health classes in middle school (ages 10–14) taught decontamination procedures.
• I lived near New York City, and there were bases for nuclear-tipped anti-aircraft Nike missiles in and around the town I grew up in and an airport not quite 5 miles from my home was a Tactical Air Force base for many years.
• Every male was draftable for up to two years until the 1970s.  I think I was the last cohort to actually face it.

Let us, for the sake of the argument, assume that the US leadership is competent and cares about the future. How many of these things have parallels now? The Soviets were a heavily armed, if economically fragile, empire bent on expansion.  The Russians are a failing state on the verge of demographic and economic collapse before the sanctions hit. What makes you think their Strategic Rocket Forces are any better maintained than their transport, armor and aircraft?

​August 11, 2022: No, dammit we do not NEED another Third Party...  

There has been a lot of loose talk recently -- OK, in the last week-- about a New Factor In Amertican Politics,  yet another Third Party. 

Some thoughts: 

In the EU and most of the parliamentary world, parties form coalitions—in the US, parties ARE coalitions.  American political parties are everchanging coalitions of diverse factions and funding streams, with wide variations of interest at the local, state, and federal levels.

• They have no set, unchanging ideologies, though it is possibly to trace coherent philosophic trajectories over the years. Groups move between parties—neoCons were “Warhawk” democrats prior to 1968 and may have just moved back there as Republicans are moving back towards their historic noninterventionist stance
• Both major parties had liberal, moderate and conservative factions prior to 1974
• In many cases, formal party membership is not required to vote in candidate-selecting primary elections. All parties seem to be happy to take money from non-members.
• At least 40% of registered voters are not party members.

There is no formal “two party” system: “third parties” are common—Republicans were one once. We have 5 recognized parties in my state, which also features non-partisan “party free” elections at some levels where party endorsements are forbidden-- such as school boards here in  North Carolina.  This does not mean they are loved or ignored: NC Democrats just tried and failed to "secure their flanks" by kicking the Greens off the ballot.  I expect them to do the same with That New Thing as well.

If you do not feel your views are represented... get off your ass and get involved.  Most meetings are doable online these days, and money-- even small amounts-- talks loudly.

​July 30, 2022: Boooooring.
In this context boring is a good thing. 

• Everyone is healthy, nothing nearby has blown up, and we are getting rain again. Still slogging through Geoffrey Parker’s Global Crisis: War, Climate Change & Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century, absolutely full of well written analysis of really depressing things I hadn’t linked together in my head before.  Anyone who says things are bad now… just doesn’t read enough history. Sadly, the next book in the stack is a biography of Cromwell. I yearn for the blow-off vampire novels again but am only 35% through the grown-up book.
  
• We needed a new HVAC setup and microwave oven which were installed this month and are staring suspiciously at the rest of the appliances. Interesting that replacement systems were readily available, but repair parts were not. Similar things happened with some of my hobby devices, though I had parts in inventory. The builder just didn't scale up the systems to account for optional changes to the floor plan... one might think they just didn't care, but I am surprised they missed a chance to upcharge for something. Microwaves... there are few simple machines anymore, and we just didn't want to mess with the cabinetry. Bouoght the extended warranty, so we know exactly when it will die next time.
  
• No sign any more friends-and-relations are moving South anytime soon, though it looked promising for a while. They turnover here at Old Folks Central is higher than I anticipated, with many moving to follow their kids and grandkids.  Prices are still outrageously steady but may have stopped climbing.

Other trends remain firmly in place, though I am trimming some investments and expanding some other slightly as managers fail to adapt, or I get bored.  Hard to say which, actually.

​​​June 16, 2022.... Ooops.

​Crap.  Lost all of May too. Too hot to go outside and play, and too North Carolina to do much else.  If one isn’t into shopping, baking on the beach, or watching trees grow, there just isn’t all that much interesting to do except watch Old People get older.

Reread most of Peter Zeihan preparatory to his new book (and over a dozen of the Faith Hunter’s Yellowrock "vampire novels".  In my defense, the first book was 99 cents). Spent the month looking at Every Single Investment we hold and rebalancing.  Read far too many big things with small numbers. Stared at maps.  Just as upset being UP 3% in an hour as being down.. in fact, maybe a bit more.  Mostly got rid of things that will work later... but are too hard to analyze now.  We are slightly less unhappy, and hope to remain so, but are making fewer long-term "big bets" and selling small slices of things we will eventually regret not keeping. Somewhere around 20% invested overall right now.  None of this is investment advice. Ever.

Some thoughts:

• Really hard to imagine what is going to happen domestically in 2022q4 and 2023q1, but there is at least the chance there will be impeachment trials for POTUS and VPOTUS, tying things up for literally months.  I have yet to see any serious comments about this from the Chattering Class.  Nothing on what Republicans plan to do if/when they control the House and Senate.  No one is paying enough attention to the recall efforts against District Attorneys.
  
• I am increasingly convinced that Zeihan is right and we are watching a global food crisis unfolding, even if it does not reach "Great Famine" levels.  Very little being said on this in the media. I seriously doubt that anyone will regret keeping their pantries full.  Or their gas tanks, for that matter.  Or their medicine chests.  Especially their medicine chests.  I expect the Regime to blame farmers for high food prices.
  
• What happens when Los Angeles and other big, desert cities run out of water?  Why isn’t this being covered?  We could effectively lose much of the urban Southwest.
  

 I expect to see a few more "planned distractions" rolled out to keep us distracted.  I doubt it will work. Monkeypox was almost certainly one of these. Note that the mainstream media is desperate for eyeballs, and their champions are being rolled back.

April 28, 2022:  The best I can say is that I got busy.

Sorry for the delay, I got busy. Another one of those times where I hate being right.  I had set things up based on what we are seeing now playing out 2024-2028.  Ooops.  Timing has always been my analytic weak point.

Some thoughts:

• Food is going to be an issue in the US, but the only issue in a lot of places.  You paleo/wheat-free guys are in for a rude shock. Start a garden!
  
• Your medicines are next.  Far too many of the feedstocks come out of the PRC, which has essentially closed its ports.
  
• Nothing useful has been done on the real supply chain issues, so shop opportunistically for your Christmas gifts and vital supplies. Get spare parts now-- "two is one and one is none" still rings true, so get three.
  
• Expect war hysteria of a likes we haven’t experienced since the Cuban Missile Crisis. The Leadership thinks you need to be distracted.  They even set up a “Ministry of Truth” organization to stamp out whatever their puppet-masters think is mis-, dis-, or mal-information. 
  
• Remember in November!  There is at least the chance that we will see a Republican sweep down to the local school-board levels in November.  Do you think they will leave quietly?  
  
• Let surprise be something that happens to someone else.  I had to write "Fortune favors the prepared mind" out a thousand times once, get is signed by my parents, and hand it in to Sister Mary Godzilla.  It was sound advice then, and remains so for the forseeable future.

I highly recommend reading or rereading Peter Zeihan's Disunited Nations and his forthcoming The End of the World is Just the Beginning.  

​March 8, 2022: An Advertising-related Rant.
Due to Current Events I have spent far more time actually watching nooz recently, usually FoxBiz, NewsMax and Bloomberg, and I am appalled—not at the noozing, which is at its usual low standards, but the advertising.

Dear Marketing and Advertising Managers:

• Note that you will not make us think kindly of you by depicting old people as ignorant, fearful twits incapable of understanding technology and finance. 
• We did not all magically become the same as we age, do not have the same needs or interests, and mostly want the same stuff we always did.
• We are interested in things other than drugs.  Honest. Please stop telling me to “ask my doctor about” them. You make me wonder if maybe some of the Progressives are correct about pharma profits.
• When you raise the volume... we lower it until you go away.  Mute Buttons are a wonderous thing.
• We generally do not care what an aging celebrity thinks of your product.  Most of us never did. Mostly we end up asking "Isn't he dead yet?" and forget what your product was.
• Stop trying to tell us how much you care, because you don’t.  We know this because we taught, hired, trained and managed you.
  

You only antagonize us by doing these things and, based on just about every economic projection I have seen recently, you are going to need every dime you can get of Boomer spending.  We are just about the only segment left that has any.

​February 22, 2022: Idle thoughts on a late winter day...

Just sitting around drinking coffee after a Fine Day Indeed at The Range watching a Tired Old Man be out of his depth… I am not expecting anything odd to happen, but Odd does not schedule appointments.

Time to shake some tired old platitudes out of my pack:

• Have you checked your firm's cyberinsurance for "acts of war" exclusions?  Updated your home firewalls and passwords?
• When was the last time you made physical backups of your vital and important family records, including Wills and such?
• Do you have current front-and-side pictures of family members?
• Do you have a hardcopy of your address book?
• Checked your pantry? Why not?  If you do not have too much food on hand you might not have enough. Dried beans and rice are cheap and last a long time.
• How about your medicine chest? Any idea where pharmaceutical feed stocks come from?
• Been to that range recently?  Have you replaced what you expended?
• How much gas do your cars have?
• Got maps?  
• Does you phone have ICE, "In Case of Emergency" contacts?
• Ummm… cash?  Remember cash?  Green paper with pictures of famous Americans?  Stuff that works when electricity does not?

There are times when a little bit of calm alertness and forethought can go a long way.

​​January 31, 2022: Anticipating change.

I have heard the Talking Heads warbling about the dangers posed by an imminent “return of Trumpism” and it got me thinking (always a dangerous thing.)

Trumpism, as such does not exist. The closest I can come using “normal political words” is that he is a neoJacksonian. He strongly resembles the “Progressive Republicans” that were common—and often dominant—in the “Greater New York” and New England region where I grew up… AKA “Rockefeller Republicans”. The best description of Jacksonians is Walter Russel Mead’s Special Providence—Jackson’s positions haven’t changed much since he died a while back, but support for them has wavered between parties as fashions changed.  I have a couple of essays on it plainly marked on the Home Page.

A non-exhaustive list of Trumpist positions would include, but not be limited to:

• Draining the Swamp: reduce the size and regulatory scope of the federal government, returning power to the state and local levels where voters can control it.
• Starving the Beast: CUT TAXES both keep money in its owners pockets, and reduce the ability of governments to expand.
• Filling the Seats: appoint strict constructionist/textualist judges at all levels, returning the judiciary to a purely legal function.
• Building the Walls: more than just a border fence, it is protecting our citizens in every way.

There were existing constituencies for each of those positions, and he built a coalition out of them, edging the Republican's Aristocrat/Oligarch and Atlanticist factions out, picking up a lot of unaffiliateds and disaffected Democrats along the way.

I am making a point of not mising any local-ish Republican meetings-- thankfully, they are all on Zoom.  Pleae note these are one person's observations of things in a small area of one state.

• Right now, most of the local and state-level Republicans I meet are Trumpists or Paulistas, some both. I am just not seeing the ... well, "Richkids" much, but they seem to be around at the state level.
  
• Many locals think we need “someone Trumpier than Trump”.
  
• There are incredible numbers of angry, socially conservative Blacks and Hispanics showing up at meeting as enthusiastic Trump supporters.
  
• A lot of supporters are unwilling to be publicly known as such for fear of losing jobs. MANY have advanced degrees.  Many are small business owners.
• The anger against School Boards is extremely high.

November 8, 2022 is coming fast, and I suspect that we are going to see a lot more change than some are anticipating.  I do not think they will be happy about it, or accepting of it.

​December 26, 2021:  My Yearly Reading List...

Lots of time on my hands again this year… still trying to maintain the "reading two hours a night" routine and focusing on things that might actually be useful. I note that there were a half-dozen or so that I bought, but just didn't get around to yet-- some of the places we gave money to sent us books, either to encourage us or scare us off, not sure which.  There were a few books that I started, but didn’t finish, due to their silliness.  Several of these were by authors who give excellent presentations or write useful blogs and tweets but seriously, seriously need better editors.  Just because you can self-publish doesn’t mean you should…

Books that significantly changed my thinking are in bold face.

Once again, blow-off sci-fi and fantasy are not listed… it is amazing the things I will read if they are cheap.  Appalling, actually.

Bailyn, Bernard:

• The Peopling of British North America:  An Introduction
• The Barbarous Years: The Peopling of British North America:  The Conflict of Civilizations, 1600-1675.
• Voyagers to the West: A Passage In The Peopling of America on the Eve of The Revolution
  
• The Ideological Origins of The American Revolution

Barrat, Adam:  The Great Devaluation:  How to Embrace, Prepare and Proper from the Coming Global Monetary Reset.

Beckley, Michael: Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World's Sole Superpower (Cornell Studies in Security Affairs)

Bey, Austin:  Cocktails from Hell: Five Complex Wars Shaping the 21st Century

Blas, Javier and Farch, Jack:  The World for Sale: Money, Power, and the Traders Who Barter the Earth's Resources. We were completely unaware of how ignorant we were on this subject, and it reads like a spy novel.

Braudel. Fernand:  The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World in the Age of Phillip 2  (a reread from ages back.)

Bresciani-Turroni, Constantino:  The Economics of Inflation:  A Study of Currency Depreciation in Post War Germany.

Bunker, Robert J (ed):  Criminal Drone Evolution: Cartel Weaponization of Aerial IEDS

Cross, Whitney R.:  The Burned-Over District: the social and intellectual history of enthusiastic religion in western NY, 1800-1850

Ferguson, Adam: Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe

Gurri, Martin:  The Revolt of the Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millenium

Hanson, Victor Davis:  Ripples of Battle: How the Wars of the Past Still Determine How We Fight, How We Live, and How We Think.

Hawke, David Freeman: Everyday Life In Early America

Klotkin, Joel:  The Coming of Neofeudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class

LeFevre, Edwin:  Reminisces of a Stock Operator. This should be read by any trader or investor.

Luttwak, Edward:  The Grand Strategy of the Roman Empire, From the First Century A.D. to the Third.

Mamula, Ned and Bridges, Ann: Groundbreaking! America's New Quest for Mineral Independence.  This is an excellent, if shrill, review of how politics affects resource scacity.

Marques, Patrick D.:  Guerrilla Warfare Tactics In Urban Environments

Papic, Marko: Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting The Future.  MP worked with Friedman and Zeihan, before going to an investment house.  This book offers several useful guidelines on "real-worlding" one's research.

Sainsbury, Peter:  Commodities:  50 Things You Need To Know

Skonieczny, Mariusz

• Due Diligence: How to Research a Stock 
• The Basics of Understanding Financial Statements…
• Scuttlebutt Investor.  I was amazed to see how close his methods are to what we did at My Final Employer.  Every serious researcher should read this.

Smil, Vaclav:

• Numbers Don't Lie: 71 Stories to Help Us Understand the Modern World.  This is an excellent book to keep on your cell-phone for idle time.  Short, snappy things I just didn’t know, or had not pieced together properly.
• Energy and Civilization: A History.  Reading this one now.

Turchin, Peter:

• Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History
• Ultra-Society

Wainright, Tom:  Narconomics: How to Run a Drug Cartel

Zeihan, Peter:  Disunited Nations; The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World (Second and third readings… taking notes each time.  Did I mention he has a blog?)

I am also spending far too much time following investment-related blogs, podcasts and Tweets.  I finally understand what hunter-gathering civilizations were like.

November 30, 2021: On the Perils of Victory.
It is the time of year when I formally rework my investment scenarios, instead of just updating my trendings as situations change.  I check back on each position I took, and see if my ideas are still broadly working, and if the time frames or underlying circumstances have changed much.  So far, even though the last few days have been annoying, I think I am pretty much on track, and added to some positions opportunistically. I had some ideas, though, on the way things are working out that might be of use to my readers that do not even come close to being investment advice.

World-wide, sadly, the timeline for The Disorders seems to be accelerating.  Reading or rereading Peter Zeihan's Disunited Nations might be helpful.  It is easy to blame the Administration for what is happening... but the trends have been in place since at least Bush 1. In short, nothing is going well anywhere, and this is as good as it is going to be for a while. Do not expect to get a realistic view of the evolving situation from the US mainstream media... any of them.

Domestically, I am seeing a bunch of projections that Republicans are going to take control of both the House and Senate in 2022, maybe add the Presidency in 2024. State and local races are looking good as well. This is a Happy Thought, but brings several questions to mind:

• Do you have contingency plans set up for large-scale urban unrest?
  
• Do you have a place of safety outside of urban areas?
  
• Have you laid in such supplies as you might deem reasonable and proper under the circumstances?
  

This is a simple extrapolation from current events.

​October 21, 2021... Another Odd Question from Quora:

I waste far too much time answering questions on Quora. Some are malicious trolling, some foreigners with questions about the US, some are kids trying to do their homework without using Google.  This one popped up today: 

"What do you think will be America's next big unexpected catastrophe?"

This is a free opinion, likely worth far less than what you paid for it:

Pro Tip: Very few catastrophes are “unexpected” …there is an entire industry of contingency, continuity of operations and disaster recovery planners constantly looking potential issues… driven by the need to find them and at least have a planning project “on the books” before their Boards, stakeholders or regulators think about it.

Leaving out nuclear war, civil wars (OK, and nuclear civil wars anywhere) things people “know about”, but lost interest in:

• Geophysics: The New Madrid Fault could let go. A mega-eruption at Yellowstone, or flood lavas in Iceland, the Afar Depression, or anywhere else. Collapse of the Old River Control Structure on the Atchafalaya River and sudden westward diversion of the Mississippi River.  Major earthquakes off the Pacific North West seem to be fading from attention as well.
• Biology: C19 aside, pandemics could get out of hand very quickly, either natural, or from biowar. There is always the chance some scriptkiddy with a CRISPR kit might do something very stupid too. A major natural, or bioengineered blight would be far harder to stop. So are pandemics affecting food animals (zoodemics). Completely antibiotic resistant bacteria could be encouraged to evolve quite easily, in Someone’s Mommy’s basement.
• Astrophysics: A Carrington Event could effectively destroy power generation and transmission, datacom, and any computing at any time. Never discount meteors and comets. 
• Weather: Warming might trigger the next glaciation. Look up thermohaline circulation disruption. and recent papers on the Lesser Dryas. Prolonged drought could seriously impact US grain production and all riverine transportation.
  
• Economics: Malicious or accidental "implosion" of the global payments system. 

Smart companies and people have adopted an "all hazards" approach to planning for such things, focusing on impacts rather than causes.

​September 19, 2021: Some thoughts on ANKUS

This is a free amateur opinion, likely worth far less than what you paid for it.

Much recent silliness on an interesting new agreement between the US, UK and Australia.

First, no, the Australians are not getting 8 brand-new Virginia-class attack submarines. The US has maxxed out its specialized shipyards and staffs with its own production. Second, the French do not now have a dozen attack submarines to sell to Iran.

Even though the French are mad, the only real change is that the Australian government replaced a plan to build a slightly larger number of locally-built but (considerably over-budget and behind schedule) French-designed conventionally-powered subs with what seems to be a cheaper locally-built versions of the UK “Astute” design with US propulsion systems. No word on who will provide the electronics. No word on the non-nuclear weapons systems. Note that an entirely new shipyard and support facilities will need to be built and staffed from scratch and they are just getting around to deciding things over the next 18 months… and constructing the industrial base to build any submarines will take years. 

Why? The US seems to have offered a better deal, with wide-ranging ramifications. From the press release, the Agreement is:

“to spur cooperation across many new and emerging arenas: cyber, AI – particularly applied AI – quantum technologies and some undersea capabilities as well. We’ll also work to sustain and deepen information and technology sharing and I think you’re going to see a much more dedicated effort to pursue integration of security and defense-related science, technology, and industrial bases and supply chains,”

Submarines are the “some underseas capabilities part.” They are DECADES away. Cyber AI, and QAI are NOW. Supply-chain integration, especially for rare earth elements and strategic metals, are NOW. If I was writing a formal appreciation of the event, I would suggest to clients that the submarine deal was “thrown is as a sweetener” for other considerations.

Aside from that, why this was important is open to conjecture… there is far more going on here than is showing on the surface. I am very curious from an investment perspective about the technology issues that were glossed over.

It likely that those outside the Australian government will never know the exact reason for cancellation, but… even a tiny bit of online research will show that the project was seriously late, way over budget, and had “technology transfer issues”. It is hard to see how the French could have been surprised, as even a few moments on Google will show that senior Australian dissatisfaction with the projects had been in the world press for three months. To an outsider, this looks like both sides looked on it primarily as a jobs program, and wanted they expensive work done in their yards… I suspect, on little evidence and no experience, that the adaptation from nuclear to AIP just wasn’t providing enough power to run the rest of the systems.

​​September 11, 2021: We do not fall into Darkness, we rise into Light.

Sometimes you get to be one of the Select just by being in the wrong place at the right time.

"They shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old:
Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn.
At the going down of the sun and in the morning,
We will remember them."

September 1, 2021: Permission to revise and extend?

Would all of my European friends and correspondents who spent last November cheering about how happy they were that the "Grown-ups are back in charge in Washington" and that America would once again have a "stable, predictable and professional foreign policy" like permission to revise and extend their remarks?

August 19, 2021:  Curiosity has exceded discretion.

Here is a “cui bono”  thought- exercise if you are bored:

Try to figure out who Biden, Harris and their minions are trying NOT to offend by making public statements on events in Afghanistan. Anything they say will offend somebody, so whose Good Will is too important to lose?

• Which of their supporting factions has lost the most face by current events?
  
• Which companies will lose the most money since the “Afghani Fire-hose” of funding is shut down?
  
• Why are individual Republican Swampcritters saying what they are saying?  Who or what is based in their district?
  

Money always speaks the truth…

​August 7, 2021, when Your Blogger was hit by a Blinding Flash of The Obvious. Yes, it hurt.

I am worried about food, fellow campers, seriously worried. Check your pantries.  None of this is to be construed as investment advice... or shopping advice, for that matter.  Really. Your observations, analysis and assessment may differ.

There is a pending food crisis that is just not being covered adequately in the media. I only found out about it by following a few farming-related YouTube channels and Twitter Feeds—yes, I have direct and indirect investments in farmland, agriculture technology and the like.   
It looks like the Midwest and California are being hit harder by drought than it being admitted in the press.  Corn and beans look very bad and, honest, so do things like almonds and anything requiring irrigation. A lot of grain is exported down the Mississippi River system and… guess what? States who get no rain move little or nothing by water.  Brazil seems to be in worse shape---but all the grainlands of South America are affected. Europe is burning due to drought-induced wildfires…even wine-growers are affected.

Oh… pigs, cows and chickens eat grain.  Lots of grain. Do you eat meat? Do you have a freezer? Do you eat grain products?  Do you have a pantry? Any room for a garden?  Can you at least “grow your own salad” in containers? Potatoes in bags on your patio?  Gardening supplies and seeds are going to be hard to find… so it is best to get a jump on it. Buy things at end-of-season sales! These are emerging issues-- you have some time, but it is usually better to be "early and wrong" than late.

Look up “African Swine Fever” and “People’s Republic of China”. Pork exports are reportedly up 15% so far this year… and 2020 was a record year.

You think food prices and shrinkflation are high now?  My guess is that you and your family are going to be presented with a maximal opportunity to lose weight involuntarily in 2022.  

8/8 UPDATE: Rain hit some very dry areas... though others are still.... VERY nervous. August is when corn and soy "fill out" so there are still major concerns. This doesn't look as catastrophic as some of the traders and farmers were claiming... but fields real close to each other can be very different. Charts I just looked at still SEEM to be showing a scarcity play... keep an eye on this, as the problems will be in 2022.  Bad weather seems widespread.

How much is people trying to profit on bad news?  How much IS bad news?

July 27, 2021: Idle Speculation...

When does PRC manufacturing and exporting fentanyl and fentanyl-related substances become a significant campaign issue as a biowar attack on the US?

July 11, 2021:  I was left unsupervised again...

Some Kid From New Jersey posted the following question on Quora… I am sure I am going to get my answer collapsed for Not Being Nice.

What is America’s real story?

• We were founded by Dunedin who sailed West after the Fall of Numenor, and many of the Founders and Framers were Half-elven.
  
• The Blue Wizards converted large numbers of orcs to the Path of Eru, and they live among us today-- many Americans have mixed Dunedin, Elven, and Orc ancestry.
  
• The Washington DC street plan is shaped like a star to commemorate Earendil.
  
• The ENTIRE space program is an attempt to reestablish links with the Undying Lands.
  
• Tom Bombadil lives under the Pentagon.

July 7, 2021: A Totally Unsolicited Opinion from an Unqualified Observer about the US leaving Afghanistan.

​Lots of loose talk in the media about "VietNam 2" and other... foolishness.  American forces left Bagram Airfield without warning in the middle of the night because they knew that the Badguys would be immediately alerted and our convoy attacked if Afghani forces became aware of their plan.

Primarily, the US geopolitical goal in the entire region was to keep the oil and gas flowing, and this is no longer a strategic concern as the United States is now effectively energy independent. We and our allies needed oil and gas from that region at one point and maintaining even a “Roman Peace” far inland and uphill from our main concerns was deemed to be in our mutual national interests. Other NATO members might have remaining interests of their own.  I project that any further…activities in the region will be conducted by Unmanned Things from a great distance.

Secondary to this was preventing the development of a regional hegemon able to block oil and gas shipment— again, due to our effective energy independence, this is no longer a strategic concern of the United States. Afghanistan and the entire region are no longer our problem, and it will be interesting to watch from a distance whose problem it becomes. I project that Japan, South Korea and Communist China will not be happy with any nation state that even threatens to impinge on their access to energy sources in some way.

Based on these long-term, implicit goals… the US won and fulfilled their strategic needs, sustaining oil flows until the US no longer needed it, and preventing the rise of any hegemonic local power.

Third… some well-meaning people in the West had the idea that the region could be dragged kicking and screaming into modernity, with functioning, non-corrupt governments, and prosperous, happy, people. Sadly, this failed utterly. As a group, we no longer care.  I project things will revert to a very bad— from a Western perspective— normal, and we still will not care.

Finally, the US never once even considered bringing a large amount of its force to bear. Ask the Germans and Japanese how that worked out for them backalong.   Note that a few generations later we are getting along with them fairly well.

In theory… Afghanistan might have exploitable mineral deposits that could be useful to somebody in the future, but the high costs of building, maintaining and securing the infrastructure necessary to develop them… is a chain of bad events. In practice... asteroid mining might be cheaper, safer, and we would not keep getting shot at or asked for bribes.

​June 28, 2021, when I finally ran out of delays.
Sorry for wandering off— we had multiple out-of-state trips for family stuff that triggered an empty-the-attic cleaning binge when we returned.  I think things have settled down for a while, so of course the HVAC is screwing up.  “Waiting for the Repair Guy” is a fine time to write…

Summer in scenic, historic North Carolina is just no fun at all.  Autumn, most of Winter and Spring are often perfection itself.  Summer is that nasty drunk friend you could never quite get rid of.  So... I am inside reading in my ongoing futile attempt to keep my post-retirement brain from turning into cottage cheese. 

Current reading on my cellphone is Tom Wainwright’s Narconomics: How to Run a Drug Cartel, which is a fascinating study of the economic drivers that has caused me to just sit still and think quite a few times. I am increasingly concerned about investments in firms along our Southern border, but just don’t know what to do about it yet.  Sooner or later someone running in 2022 or 2024 is going to bring up fentanyl as a PRC bioweapon.

Tablet-fare is Peter Turchin’s Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History which honestly is my bedtime reading because I nod off after a page or two.  What is it about academics that makes them think everything is cyclical?  Is Confirmation Bias not a thing anymore?  Does predicting a civil war raise booksales?

Aside from that I have been reading myself silly with some highly entertaining SF from New Guys, often self-published, and doing 4+ hours a day on investment research.  (The trouble with keeping a 3-year perspective is that one does not get immediate results.)  We are making money, but losing sleep and stomach-lining.

Otherwise,

• The UFO…ooops, UAP report turned out about as I anticipated.  I am increasingly convinced it is a distraction but haven’t the faintest idea from what. Why is a long-term world-wide event stream suddenly a problem for the Great Powers? ChiCom biowar blunders are the top thing leaping to mind, but even they were reporting UAP incidents before the “pandemic.”
  
• Democrats are just not acting as if they think they are winning. My bet is still on Jobama getting a 25th Amendment Wake-up Call on January 22, 2023. My prediction last year that nothing would get done by this Congress seems to be holding quite well.
  
• Keeping and bearing arms is a bigger thing for many...Casual thought from my range-time is that many of the people who panicked and bought firearms for the first time last year are actually out there learning to shoot, and seem to be having a lot of fun doing it.​  There are usually more women and minorities than the usual Old White Guys at the range I frequent now, all happily getting along and complaining about the cost of ammunition.

Right now... Inertia seems to remain the main driver, but the Shiny Folk and their media stooges are looking for new ways to rile us all up again.

​

May 11, 2021:  Some Thoughts on "America' Crumbling Infrastructure"

Just did a weeklong trip from North Carolina to New York, and my mind turned to the state of the infrastructure along the way… I mean, it is America’s Greatest Crisis, right?

I have driven this route at least twice a year since 2014, and the highways and bridges along the way were in just about the best condition I have ever seen them, with the absolute exception of New York State. Even the urban stretches of the Garden State Parkway were in better shape.

The “Lying Weasel Bridge” over the Hudson River, though,  was perfect… but that was about it.  State and local roads were a potholed mess, with garbage-strewn waysides. Even a mild rain caused heavy ponding on road surfaces.  Westchester County is supposedly one of the richest demographics on the planet… but there are backwater rural counties here in scenic North Carolina that take better care of themselves.

At least I didn’t actually see any rats this time… I guess they are making enough Bidenbucks to stay in their nests.

April 21, 2021: On History Repeating Itself.

I just finished reading Adam Fergusson's "When Money Dies: The Nightmare of Deficit Spending, Devaluation and Hyperinflation in Weimar Germany" and am just too depressed to talk about it.

Constantino Bresciani-Turroni's 1932 epic, "The Economics of Inflation: A study of Currency Depreciation in Post-War Germany" was supposed to be next... but I just can't do it.  History is often depressing, but even I have my limits.  I am firing up Randal Garret's "Lord Darcy" stories instead, to fight the nightmares.

March 30, 2021: The Next Big Thing...

I am almost embarrassed not to have had much by way of “blog-able” thoughts this month.  I have had my head down doing day-to-day investment research, which has meant entirely to much reading, listening to podcasts and watching YouTube pitches from optimists standing next to holes in the ground. I was surprised recently to note it is Spring "out there"... when did that happen?   The hardest thing to do, I find, is sit around and wait for things to develop.  The next hardest thing is knowing when to leave the party. I would be very happy to have a computer screen that was visible in bright daylight, as my office is NO Fun Anymore.

This is pure, unadulterated free-range organic Idle Speculation:  Covid19, climate change,  insurrection, economic issues and The Evils of Whiteness are not keeping us scared and/or angry enough to be politically malleable. The next Big Distraction is going to be a series of Earth-shaking Revelations about UFOs.  There has been a steady trickle of teasers coming out about US military encounters with stuff that might be “from out of town” in a serious way.  There might be some kind of government report coming out in June, but it has already been delayed for “reasons” at least twice.  No matter what, They will ask for more money to "deal with the issue."

Please at least try to look surprised, interested and concerned when They tell you about it... you know how They sulk when They don't feel appreciated.

​

February 28, 2021:  Small noises in the quiet.

I have been trying to find something new and exciting to write here, but it has been a fairly quiet few weeks, mostly spent reading and doing investment research.  I focus on the impacts of inertia, scarcity and constraints, so there is quite a bit to keep up on. 

Right now I am slogging my way through Bernard Bailyn's Ideological Origins of the American Revolution, having completed his Peopling of British North America series. Origins springs from some of his work collecting and publishing political pamphlets and sermons from the 1600s up to the ratification of the US Constitution. To me, the amazing thing is how little has changed—our Founders had exactly the same concerns about corrupt Aristocracies and Oligarchies as we do today, and their thoughts on the dangerous concentration of power in a monarchy still ring true. I hope to have some intelligent comments on it a bit.

Oh—I snuck Marko Papic’s Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework For Predicting The Future into the stack.  I heartily recommend it, as it shows a quant-ish approach to the subject and suggests some useful tools.  Papic was part of George Friedman’s team at Stratfor—so was Peter Zeihan.  Reading their books can help you reduce your risk of being unpleasantly surprised.

​​January 30, 2021: My 2020 Pandemic Reading List

OK, it was a boring year with several interesting moments that modified the direction of my reading at least once.  Somewhere in midsummer I decided to turn the electronics off at 8:00 PM, and read hardcopy under an incandescent bulb until 10:00 PM… page count adds up after a while.  All told, I think being informed is better than most alternatives. Having a hard-stop on watching business and political opinionating was soothing.

Note the list does not include any of the fiction… a lot of which were rereads. Far too many were not.  Books that significantly changed my thinking are in bold-face.

• ​Bew, John: Realpolitik: A History
• Bobrow-Strain Aaron: White Bread; A Social History of the Store-bought Loaf
• Boudreux, Donald, and Scott, James:  Seeing Like a State: A Conversation with James C. Scott.
• Crowley, Robert: City of Fortune; How Venice Ruled the Sea
• ​Ellsberg, Daniel: Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner
  
• Friedman, George: The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond.
• Gaudet, John: The Pharoh’s Treasure; The Origin of Paper and the Rise of Western Civilization 
• Heather, Peter; Empires and Barbarians: The Fall of Rome and the Birth of Europe
• Hoskins, W.G.: The Age of Plunder: The England of Henry VIII, 1500-47
• Judis, John B.: The Populist Explosion; How The Great Recession Transformed American and European Politics.
• Marighella Carlos: Minimanual of the Urban Guerilla
• O'Sullivan, Michael S.: The Levelling: What's Next After Globalization
  
• Parcack, Sarah; Archeology From Space, How the Future Shapes Our Past
• Phillips, Kevin; The Cousins' Wars: Religion, Politics, Civil Warfare, And The Triumph Of Anglo-America (TWICE, in fact, back-to-back.)
• St. Clair, Kassia:  The Golden Thread; How Fabric Changed History
• Skonieczny, Mariusz: How to Profit From The Coronavirus Recession
• Straus, W.; Howe, N.; The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny
• Stirewalt, Chris: Every Man A King; A Short, Colorful History of American Populists
• Taylor, Alan: American Colonies: The Settling of North America
• Terkel, Studs; Hard times; An Oral History of The Great Depression.
• West, John: Fry The Brain: The Art of Urban Sniping and its Role in Modern Guerrilla Warfare
  
• Zeihan, Peter: Disunited Nations; The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World

Please do not consider the list to be bragging... it is just amazing how much reading you can get done if you are bored, lonely and too angry to watch idiots on TV. Cutting my membership in Facebook groups to one (1) and defriending everyone but my family (and actual friends) was useful too.

To be honest, I haven’t completely finished The Leveling, which made me angry, and Hard Times, which made me cry.  I am sure I bought and read a book on the spice trade, but I can’t find it.  Yes, I checked under my bed, and in the car.

2021 has, so far, been focused on already-owned, but never read, histories by Bernard Baylin (The People of British North America series) and Fernand Braudel, as I spent too much on cheap Sci-Fi last year. I might re-read the Phillips book for a third time, as it is informative and... hopefully, not predictive.

Oh-- read the Zeihan book, unless you LIKE being unpleasantly surprised.

​January 17, 2021: "Being wrong is forgivable: being surprised is unacceptable."

OK, I hate to sound like ME again, and I know you have heard my rants before, but… sorry.  Here I go again.  A lot of my friends-and-relations are FIXATED on the Biden Election, and all the bad things that might happen.  Well… are you doing anything about it?  Have you looked at your savings and investments, to see what in particular might be impacted by what they claim they are planning to do? Please Note that I am NOT saying to “take the counsel of your fears”, but the economic environment WLL change, and you need to have an idea now what your options might be. Very few things are so bad that you cannot make a buck or two off them.

​​January 16, 2021: Numbers and mild speculation...

I am not happy with these numbers and stipulate you can stack them in various ways-- Please note that in my experience everyone lies about sex, money and firearms.

• Based on FBI reports there are at least 371 million firearms in the US at the start of 2021—and there is probably a significant multiple of that since firearms are permanent and cumulative...  and they only started checking in 1998.
  
• Registered Republicans can only account for about half of Trump’s 74ish million “counted” voters.
  
• According to a 2020 Gallup poll, 50% of self-identified Republicans are willing to admit they live in a firearm owning household... and only 18% of Democrats. 
  
• According to Military Times, half of veterans polled supported Trump.
  

So... I am willing to speculate that if either Republicans or Trumpists wanted an insurrection, they had the ability to have one. They did not.

January 12, 2021: Encouraging news.

We zoomed a county-level Republican Party meeting last night and are strongly encouraged. There were 93 logins at peak and 63 sat through the entire 2 hour session. The Chairman did an outstanding job of keeping things moving.  Based on the comments and discussions, it looked like most of the “major party factions” were represented, encouraged to speak, and listened-to respectfully.  

While other things were discussed, it focused on “What do you think the next steps for Republicans in Durham?” and was largely positive and upbeat. We were pleased to see that while there was an immediate, tactical discussion, our local leadership is firmly committed to long-range development plans. This makes it easier for us to "open our checkbook" on a more consistent basis.

What is YOUR local Party doing? Do they have your email address so they can let you know?

January 10, 2021:  Another expectation...

​This is NOT investment advice, prediction or forecast, but it is hard to imagine how any Trump or First Amendment supporter can own Apple, Twitter or Google shares any more.  This might have unanticipated repercussions.

I sort-of-strongly expect that we shall collectively have the opportunity to invest in new social media and communications channels over the next few months—for those of you who remember how I Used To Talk, that is a “P= 0.9” level of certainty.  As always, the trend is firm, the timing less so.

Do you know what is in your portfolio?  Are you happy with your fund managers choices?  More than one side can play this game.

January 9, 2021: I guess I am going to be posting more often...

It looks like the Ministry of Truth is shutting down access for many to Twitter, Facebook and YouTube. I am mostly on Parler and MeWe right now, pretty much mirroring my content across all platforms.  Maintain calm... we will all be a lot happier if this is contested inside the Courts rather than outside of them.  You can access Parler and MeWe directly from the internet, bypassing apps entirely. Get a website of your own-- they are usually fairly inexpensive.

Some thoughts:

Democrats had 58% of BOTH the house and Senate in the 111th Congress with Obama in 2009.  Biden has effectively 51% of the Senate and 51% of the House. He must maintain total party discipline—or seek a viable multi-partisan consensus-- to get anything done.  When was the last time you contacted your US Representative or Senators with your opinion on a bill?  Be a pest.  

Republicans now hold the legislative and executive branch in 24 states. Democrats in 15 states.  Amending the US Constitution still requires one of the following to happen:

• Having a bill which receives a two-thirds majority vote in both the House (290/438) and Senate (67/100) which is then ratified by the legislatures of three-fourths (38) of the states.
  
• Having two-thirds (34/50) of the state legislatures Call for an Article Five Convention on the subject, the convention passing the Amendment, and then having it ratified by the legislatures of three fourths (38) of the states.
  

​​When was the last time your contacted your STATE Representative and Senator about anything?​​​​  Very few of them get any real attention at all.  Controlling the States is important-- never forget it is redistricting time.

As I write there are 667 days until Election Day, 2022.  We were sort of thoughtless this year and put money into PACs.. never again--- we want them to see our name directly, not part of a blob controlled by someone we don't know. 

​

January 8, 2021: Idle Speculation ​​​from someone who reads too much of the wrong stuff.

The PRC's DCEP just might be the most important thing you are not paying attention to yet.

The Digital Currency Electronic Payment system is a centralized sovereign-issued currency operating on a closed transaction network inside the PRC.  It will be used on all electronic payment systems, trading 1/1 with the physical yuan.  As of 2020q4 the “backend and plumbing” is reportedly complete and being tested by a group of government employees.  Wider testing is anticipated in 2021, with roll-out in 2023. Use is expected to be mandatory for PRC businesses by late 2022 and required for all foreign businesses operating in the PRC in 2023. 

There has been quite a bit of online concern about how much information sharing will be required to use their digital wallet, and how deeply intrusive their “Know Your Customer” requirements will be.  PRC-reliant supply chains could see "possibly unanticipated" impacts.

The DCEP is an attempt to gain complete control and information on their domestic economy.  Further, it is an attempt to break the dollar hegemony and curtail the influence of the US economic system on world affairs.  World Central banks are reportedly scrambling to counter it. The curious recent regulatory kerfuffle around some “free-market” digital currencies and electronic payment systems might be an indication that the Deep State is rearranging the deck chairs prior to an enhanced state of economic warfare as The Disorders heat up. 

​Too much is unknown or still evolving to be anything more than unusually alert. No one I have read seems sure how this is going to play out, but most advise their readers to watch the situation intently.

December 12, 2020: Most definitely not predictions...

​I keep a general list of ideas and trends that influence my personal investment decisions… usually in a sloppy pile of magazine cuttings, reprints, scrap-paper notes, yellow stickies, and every once in a while a whiteboard. Every year I anticipate building a formal “Key Topics and Questions” document from it, sort of as a guide to help me find out what I got wrong, and why.  Thanks to all my unanticipated spare time this year I might actually get one done.  You can actually see the surface of my desk right now…well, parts of it at least.  I bet I threw the important stuff out.

I do not have anything close to a coherent scenario but suspect that Peter Zeihan and George Friedman will be pretty much in the correct general direction during this timeframe.  These are my General Expectations—they are not predictions, just stuff I sort of anticipate. 

• Nothing here is investment advice... not one tiny bit. 
  
• Nothing here should be a surprise if you have been paying attention. 
  
• Did I mention that NONE of this is anything like investment advice?
  

​As always, timing is weak, and I expect to be surprised in both good and bad ways.

Domestic:

• Expect increased spending and inflation. As much of an increase in federal spending as can be railroaded through Congress, with a sharp uptick in heavily earmarked “pork barrel” projects. Everyone will want, and most will get, their slice.  “Inflation” will be at/near 5% by q4 2021, though hyperinflation is still far off.
• Expect the economy to boom:  Free money is free money.
• Expect the US stock markets to crash.  This is not investment advice.  I sort-of expect a 25% + general market crash by early February (giving back half the Trump gains), centered on FANGs, SPY, DIA, QQQ stocks IF unemployment picks up, or people need to raid their IRAs for rent/mortgage payments. (Something like SPY 370 to 285, DIA 302 to 236, QQQ 305- 208… all are roughly NORMAL 20-25% pullbacks.) A “general rotation” is possible into dividend payers. Things could get very bad, very quickly for any number of reasons, though. I suspect we are in the beginnings of  a 5-10 year resources bull market. Sooner or later no one is going to want to buy any type of bond…
• Expect Businesses to come home: Zeihan says it is now cheaper to make textiles, chips, furniture and soon heavy equipment in the US, rather than importing them.  This does not mean more “factory” jobs, just increased pressure on infrastructure and tax give-aways by states. 
• Expect that not much will actually get done by this or the next Congress. Expect gridlock and rising tensions 2020-2024, regardless of which party wins the general election.  Everyone will blame everyone else. Everybody will be right.
• Expect a major push for “Goodies for Undesirables”… Wealth inequality will become a bigger issue. Covid19 will be the excuse for something that will look a lot like an Iron Ricebowl.
• Expect crushing debt loads to impact state and local government services: Expect increasingly strident calls for a “debt jubilee” geared towards “oppressed Democrat voters.” SOME segments might get some relief, especially voter-friendly student loan debt reduction.  Expect the slow-motion collapse and bailout of the public pension system, led by cities and states.
• Expect urban violence. There will be sporadic urban violence, but no actual “insurrection”.  Defunded police departments will not be much interested in helping—you will be on your own.
• Expect every single available firearm in the country to be sold by January 20 2021, and be lost in a series of tragic canoe accidents.  Already-scarce ammunition will see a similar draw-down.  Gun-grabbing efforts using Executive Orders will be a major 2022 issue, perhaps sparking violence. 
• Expect “Get out of town” trends to accelerate and widen. Flight from cities and increasingly “woke-broke” states will accelerate.  Urban real estate values will drop.  Suburban/exurban siting will trend high.
• Expect Increasing polarization…  no matter which party wins half the population will be angry, and the anger will grow over time.
• Wild Card: Both major parties “break up”, though stay together, and it will be difficult to maintain internal control. Democrats will be unable to shift from campaigning to governance. I sort of expect an amorphous, bipartisan sort-off centrist “alliance” to develop… not quite a new party.

International:

• Expect 365 days of 360’ problems: Everyone will be testing the new Administration at once…whichever one it is.  Expect this to drive increased defense procurement.
• Expect major problems between the PRC and all of its trading partners. CCP misreading the US domestic situation and pushing hard in the South China Sea and on Trade may drive actual skirmishes.   I expect the Bidencrats to keep a hard line, but coordinate with the EU, and SEA “allies”.  There will be loud noise, but limited real action, on trade in food and REEs through 2022.
• Expect The Disorders to begin… for others. Mideast will find out what life without the US is like… hard to see Biden doing much by way of re-insertion despite the Warhawks.  Some utterly inconsequential Line In The Sand will be drawn somewhere else… a new “Pivot to the Pacific” perhaps, and rebasing in the Philippines or Vietnam. 
• Expect neoImperialism in Africa. There COULD be a major anti-jihadist thing in Africa. I expect a multi-national “peacekeeping effort” to make the Congolese cobalt mines “Safe for Democracy”, etc. It is both vital and photogenic—enslaved child workers, evil warlords, etc. It will be a wedge to bring NATO into Africa for anti-jihadi work. Congo has huge resources in copper and tin, tantalum, tungsten and gold. PRC business practices in Africa will suddenly become an issue.
• Expect internal violence in the EU driven by racial, economic and ethnic divisions.

 When all else is cloudy… count on inertia.  There are literally no surprises here.   

November 12, 2020:  Some thoughts on not-quite leaving Facebook, Twitter and YouTube.

The most amazing thing about curtailing the left-legacy social media channels is how much free time I have... since so few of my friends and services are on YouTube, Parler and MeWe so far. Between the eXodus and no longer being a kneelingball fan  I have a lot of time to catch up on my reading.  Hard to dump Fox, too, but we subscribed to NewsMax yesterday, and are getting picky about who we watch on FoxBiz too

Please note that if you don’t use your real name no one can find you. Hint hint... Let your friends know where you ended up.  

Right now I feel like a single atom of hydrogen, floating in deep, dark, flat space... no doubt we will be a Sun someday, but... right now it is very peaceful.

​November 6, 2020: On Maintaining Forward Momentum.

The media does not decide who is president.  That normally happens December 14 when the Electoral Votes are counted… but may stretch out to noon, January 20, 2021… or longer.  Maintain forward momentum and Stout Hearts.

No matter what, the focus shifts to 2022.

• Your local, county and state Republican Party offices need money far more than the fatrats in the Imperial City.  Even small amounts count.
• Any idea who the Republicans running for your town, county and state offices will be?  How about your Representative? Keep your eyes open—find someone you like and get behind them early.
• “Money is expensive”… email is not. When was the last time you sent a note to your politicians?  In the past I noted they were a lot more responsive to people who contributed even small amounts. Bluntly, they may be a demonrat, but they are your demonrat.  Make them work, make them sweat.
• Call the media to account—if they say something stupid, wrong, or biased, let them know you disagree.  In fact, let their advertisers know you disagree with where their dollars are spent.
• Open accounts on Parler, or some other nonmachine social media.  Invite your friends, subscribe to politicians you know and—at least somewhat—trust.
• Do you have any news/opinion sources you trust?  Spread the word…

Do not be intimidated, do not be silent.

THESE are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman.

Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.

What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value. Heaven knows how to put a proper price upon its goods; and it would be strange indeed if so celestial an article as FREEDOM should not be highly rated.

Thomas Paine, The Crisis No. I (written 19 December 1776, published 23 December 1776)

October 16: 2020: Orwell was an optimist.

Bored?  Appalled by censorship? The latest actions by Facebook, Twitter and Google have made having multiple, redundant lines of communication vital.  There are some alternatives, all new, and in need of subscribers to hit critical mass.  All are clunky and limited in content so far-- you can help change that.  Eventually.  Note that I am less than happy with any of them, but you have to do the best you can with what you have.

The ones I currently try to use are

• Parler: a Twitter equivalent, with a deep Conservative/Libertarian client base.  I have been reading it for awhile, but just started posting on it.  Get your favorite information-providers and pundits to sign up, and it will be "just like home" in no time.
• Rumble—sort of Youtuby.  I understand people can make money posting things.  Seems value-free, and I have heard rumors of censorship issues. 
• MeWe—reminds me of Facebook in its very-much younger days.  It sort of su... was less than optimal for a long time.  Far too much like an eFleamarket so far, but some authors I follow have moved there.
• Quora-- at best, pointless and annoying, unless you like helping hyperliberal teenagers with their homework.  I use it to play Whack-a-mole with Wrongwingers.  They have a Partner's Program where they pretend you can make money by posting things advertisers like.
• LBRY:  Just signed up... has more of a YouTube feel than Rumble, fewer fluffykittens.

Do YOU have any alternatives?

Do you have a website and blog?  Do your friends know about it?  Make sure that your friends-and-relations know how to find you when the Thought Police zap your social media!

​​September 27, 2020:  Some thoughts on day-today economics.

I have been involved recently with some conversations with former analysts on recent events.  "Everyday Life" keeps creeping in as an analytic concept, (Yes, we read too much Fernand Braudel when we were in school), even though it really isn't catching on in the mainstream debate.  "Living Minimum Wages" and Basic Subsidized Income kept coming up as problems, NOT solutions.

Good wages for the poor… interesting concept. You mean alms? Bread and circuses? Most unskilled jobs are going away, and even skilled jobs are vanishing: the real impacts of improved design, automated manufacturing and quality control are just beginning to be realized. We may be on the verge of “permanent, never break, never wear out” technology. The white-collar purge is starting, and knowledge workers of all sorts are next. 

NONE of this should be news to anyone who has been paying attention!

OPINION: The US has been undergoing a “rolling depression” since the 1960s, as entire industries effectively closed. Human resources will be the easiest-to-replace production factor for the next generation.  Drivers included globalization, demographics, regulations and automation.  I suspect design and manufacturing improvements added to this by increasing usable product life in many cases.  Entire regions were hollowed out and became “job deserts”.  Still a nice ride if you are a technocrat in a nice little urban enclave somewhere, but even that is slipping away—a lot of the disturbance in the US might be the elites finally figuring out that their jobs are threatened not next, but NOW.

I have been trying to invest my way around the dollar tsunami that has been unleashed, and I am not seeing many “thought leaders” with a clear idea as to how to cope.  I am not seeing adequate descriptions, much less predictions and prescriptions.  Gold was the “reserve currency” for the longest time, but there just is not enough of it to replace the dollar without hyperinflation.  I expect to see a REAL flight from dollars as the possibility of a “hung” POTUS election seeps into the heads of money managers worldwide.

Buying your kid 5 arable acres a decent distance from urban centers might be a better way to ensure their survival and prosperity than sending them to college for a liberal arts degree.

August 23, 2020: Some Possibly Interesting Numbers

I was messing around this morning updating my Emerging Events pitch, because some habits die very hard indeed, and thought this might be of some interest... ALL numbers are from CDC webpages.

CDC Estimated US Influenza Disease Burden, by Season and Notable Pandemics 1918: 675,000 “Spanish Flu” Pandemic
1957:  116,000 “Asian Flu” Pandemic
1968: 100,000 “Hong Kong Flu” Pandemic
2002: 0 “SARS” Pandemic
2009: 12,469 “Swine Flu” Pandemic
2010: 37,000
2011: 12,000
2012: 43,000
2013: 38,000
2014: 51,000
2015: 23,000
2016: 38,000
2017: 61,000
2018: 34,157
2019: 24,000-62,000 (estimates)
2020: 174,645 “COVID19” Pandemic though August 23, 2020

CDC 2020: “Cigarette smoking is responsible for more than 480,000 deaths per year in the United States…”

​​

August 16, 2020: A Public Service Announcement.

There is no "safe". There has NEVER been "safe". If you thought you were "safe" you were not paying attention, got lucky, or were surrounded and protected by people who KNEW that there was no "safe". You will die. EVERYONE dies. Get over it. You cannot control events. You CAN control how you react to events.

​July 29, 2020:  Why I need to be kept busy...

I got ferociously bored a few years back... you know the tune:

I am the very model of a former Gartner Analyst

A writer and consultant and a willing trade-show panelist,

I know the major players and their boards and all their product lines

From funding source to total cost including late delivery times.

I’m very well acquainted, too with matters high and ethical

I understand relationships both good and problematical.

About forthcoming standards I am teeming with a lot of news

With many scary facts explaining all the ways that you can lose.

I’m very good at predicting the future course of world affairs

Regardless of environments containing either bulls or bears.

I’m quoted in the Bombay Times, Playboy and The Economist,

I am the very model of a Former Gartner Analyst!

 

I wrote the only case study your firm was ever mentioned in

Made everyone quite happy though the data was appalling thin.

Gave testimony to Congress on subjects hypothetical

With comments so meandering no client ended up in jail.

I can answer client inquiry in seven different languages

I’m sensitive to local needs and how each culture manages.

Revolving doors don’t frighten me I know just how to get ahead

what to do and where to go to furbish up my own street cred.

My powerpoint is perfect and presented in the latest style

With sufficient local ref’rences to make your local salesman smile.

I’m handsome and sweet smelling. I get by on oh so little rest—

I am the very model of a former Gartner Analyst

 

If you would only hire me I’ld make you so exstatical

energise your sales force and indeed make them piractical--

expand upon your client base, while increasing your wallet share,

reduce your risk, improve your fisc’ and increase all your market shares.

I keep a bag packed by the door, for traveling to foreign shores.

 I have my shots, don’t get the trots and seldom ask to be paid more.

In airport lounges far and wide impromptu sales pitches I give,

I remember children’s names for each targeted young executive.

I’m self-aligning, prescient, wide ranging but ferocious deep,

work globally think locally, on red-eye flights I rarely sleep

but labor so incessantly competitors will start to weep.

 

I say nothing that’s disparaging not now, not then or evermore

not here nor there or anywhere not even on a foreign shore.

My word is good and I stay bought, my promises I always keep

and just in case somebody don’t I have a notarized receipt.

I work in teams, collaborate so seamlessly around the clock,

do all my work and do not shirk between a hard place and a rock. 

Just hire me and you will take a chance that you just should never miss—

THE BEST CHOICE FOR YOUR TEAM IS me! The former Gartner Analyst…

July, 2, 2020:  Interesting times...

Bluntly, US firearms sales are at the highest level in recorded history.  I haven’t seen much about it in the media, which is somewhat surprising. 

Background: The National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) reports show that over 352,184,113 mandatory firearms background checks were initiated by licensed dealers between when record-keeping started in November 1, 1998 and June 30, 2020... not all purchases were approved, and sometimes more than one firearm is purchased with a single check, but that is the base-case accepted estimate of “firearms in the US”.  My guess is that there are easily an additional DOUBLE of that in people's closets (possibly far more), since firearms are permanent and cumulative (For them math-challenged, that is something like over a billion or so firearms of various sorts in civilian hands).  

Despite Covid19 Lockdowns restricting both travel and access to firearms shops—and severely inhibiting purchases--Bloomberg news has reported that in March 2020 firearms sales topped an estimated 2.5 million, up 85.3% year-over-year, Handgun sales increased 91.1% year-over-year,  and Long-gun sales were up 73.6%.  The National Shooting Sports Foundation, a trade group, reports a May 2020 member survey that over 40% of purchasers are “first time buyers”, up from an average of 24%.  

I expect to hear, but will not be deceived by, mainstream media reports that firearms sales are “slowing” in some areas. Recent reports—gathered from direct personal research and trade comments, indicate that the supply chain is essentially empty, all the way back to the manufacturers.  People are also holding on to their existing firearms:  trade-ins and resale has dried up for now.  Ammunition is scarce and expensive.  Manufacturing facilities are impacted by “social distancing” rules in the workplace, and heavily overstressed shipping to and from distributors.  Almost everyone has experienced at least some hit to their personal finances.

Despite this, people are arming up, getting trained, and practicing. My own experience is that local firearms ranges are running near capacity, and “Beginning Shooter” classes fill up rapidly.  The crowds are mixed racially, ethnically and by gender, standing and complaining happily in socially distanced lines.  People seem excited, rather than scared.

Interesting times.

May 30, 2020:   Day 93, not that I am counting or anything.

​​This is Day 93, or thereabouts, of social distancing… I think I might miss it when it is gone.

Pretty much up to date with investment research at the macrotrend level and sticking with my allocations.  We are sneaking back in on some stuff but are highly pessimistic—not about the economy or market, but with our ability to understand or even analyze it effectively right now.  The solid ideas we have are harder to act on than we like… but the whole goal is to make and keep money, not be 100% right.  

That said-- there are some situations that are spinning out of control, and it is entirely too easy to get distracted.  I have spent far to much time reading bad analyses and overly excited assessment of flawed data and wonky models.  When in doubt--- look around you.  What are you seeing?

Spent a bunch of time playing with some new genealogy tools, reading papers, and admitting that there was no new material relating to my particular “brick walls.”  Right now I am mostly improving the grammar and illustrations in the matriline history I am writing.  I am amazed how the editors and graphics guys at My Final Employer made me look good... OK, better.

So far I have completely caught up on my “professional” reading, and gone through entirely too much old, “bad” Science Fiction and fantasy.  Many thanks to the algorithm at Amazon that decided to remind me of the “Thieves’ World” and ‘Garret PI” fluff, and price them so cheaply I could blithely wade through them.

Recent unFluffy Reads: 

Disunited Nations by Peter Zeihan seems to be roughly predictive, but on a substantially accelerated timeline.  The author is highly active on YouTube and has a free newsletter.  He remains solid in his projections that Badness Things will be happening, mostly to everywhere but the US.

The Storm Before the Calm by George Friedman… similar but focused on the US.  This one triggered me to do some ongoing digging on “historical cycles” and have late-night thoughts about the Great Awakenings.  More later on that…maybe.  I am deeply skeptical on "wave theory" as applied to history.  His views on the world-wide "revolt against the technocrats" bears close attention.

The Populist Explosion by John Judis, Everyman a King by Chris Stirewalt, and Days of Rage, by Bryan Bourroughs, for background.  These seem to tie in pretty well with Zeihan and Friedman, though are unconnected in any way.

Rereads (this time I took notes)

American Nations by Colin Woodard, because it is an election year.

Out of the Mountains by David Kilcullen… second time through, to refresh my memory.  Pointed me towards some early stuff on coastal megacities.  This was driven by reading Judis, Stirewalt and Bourroughs.

The Revenge of Geography by Robert Kaplan, same deal.

Not Read yet… 

The Pursuit of the Pankera, by Robert Heinlein… I am hoarding this.

Mamelukes by Jerry Pournelle. Due out in June… another series that has been decades in hiatus.

Union, by Colin Woodard—also a June release.

Oh... many thanks to the Durham County Library for their online books program, which brought me  The Doomsday Machine by Daniel Ellsberg and City of Fortune by Roger Crowley.

Many Big Things are moving right now, and patient alertness is the best approach. 

April 14, 2020:  Mild Crankiness after Seven Weeks of Otherwise Healthy Self-Isolation...

What are YOU doing to prepare for coming OUT of Xi’s Pandemic and emerging from its associated Great Recession? Doing any on-line skills upgrades? Building your knowledge base? Is your email networking or whining? Even self-pity gets boring after a while and it is time to start acting like Grownups again...

Everything ends, including pandemics.  While I have no special insights, it is silly NOT to assume that long-term trends will largely remain in place.  When in doubt, bet on inertia; trends will bend, but not break.

I highly recommend works by Peter Zeihan, The Accidental Superpower, The Absent Superpower and his new, right-on-point Disunited Nations.  Many of his presentations and interviews are available for FREE on YouTube. See Also George Friedman's newest: The Storm Before the Calm.  Both authors have free newsletters as well.

Also--- try not to be so Unprepared next time, maybe?  Start a list of things you wish you had done before this Mess started, and an Action Plan for remediation.  My first hint that something was UP was when n95 masks were "gone" the first week in January... (I would like to say I was pandemic-prescient, but I needed to restock for craft projects...)

March 8, 2020:  Very Little Changes Over Time...

As almost always these days, this is a rewrite of previous work.

Back in 2008 I was heavily involved in researching the potential impact of an influenza pandemic, first on information technology in financial services, later as part of a team considering pandemic impacts on businesses in general.   I did some previous research in 2002 on SARS that we all sort of lost interest in as it failed to spread much—for many reasons-- in my US-centric customer base.  Other issues came up and we moved on.

In 2008 FEMA believed H1N1 “Swine ‘Flu” would have multiple, unevenly distributed waves of infection, with possibly 90 million US infections.  They thought infection rates would be 20% for adults and 40% for children, with perhaps 2 million US deaths.  Projections indicated over 70% of enterprises moderate-severely disrupted experiencing 40% absenteeism for as long as eight weeks.  Some organizations were expected to experience +95% absentee rates.

The very best epidemiologists in the world missed their projections, thankfully.  That H1N1  ‘flu was milder, though more infectious, than expected, and impacted different demographics.  This was good, since the vaccines—and continuity of operations plans, were deficient.

The CDC reissued its Planning Assumptions for an Influenza Pandemic in 2017.  (cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/national-strategy/index.html) They projected that any forthcoming ‘flu would have

• “…potential to disrupt national and community infrastructures (including health care, transportation, commerce, utilities, and public safety) due to widespread illness, absenteeism, and death among workers and their families, as well as concern about ongoing exposure to the virus.”

• “…near simultaneous clusters likely will occur in many communities across the United States, thereby limiting the ability of any jurisdiction to support and assist other jurisdictions.”

• “…infection in a localized area can last about six to eight weeks. At least two pandemic disease waves will occur. …”

• “The clinical disease attack rate could range” from 20% to 30% of the overall population

They provided no estimates on mortality and risk groups. NOTHING was mentioned on a possible novel coronavirus outbreak.

I am not going to go into what we recommended to our clients who paid a LOT for the research.  I will note, though, that response plans were optimistic.  Damned few firms were willing to contemplate high death rates. Very few individuals or families made and maintained any home-centric disaster preparedness of any kind.

After a while, I wasn’t with That Wonderful Firm anymore, but I kept up on continuity issues in general. You might want to keep these observations in mind--- emergency events seem to indicate We Were Right, and maybe a bit optimistic:

Expect quarantines.  This will disrupt repair, and critically, food supplies.  Your town most likely has less than 4 days supply of food available. EVERYONE will panic after their kids miss their third meal.  ATM machines will empty quickly, as EVERYONE tries to make sure they have cash on hand.  Gas pumps will dry up very fast too.  The impact on pharmacy supplies will be profound.

Expect incomplete, conflicting and rapidly-changing information on conditions.  This has been the case in Every Single Disaster and large-scale emergency since I started covering such things in 2001. The American news media cannot generally handle non-photocentric events involving science and numbers.  Expect bogus vaccines and cures to be peddled.​

Expect that you will be on your own.  Civic services are likely to break down early. EVERYONE is going to try to hit their doctor, urgent care, or local hospital at roughly the same time.  Ambulances, EMT and rescue teams will be maxed-out -so will funeral homes. Police resources will be stretched to the breaking point very early.  Your National Guard will probably be federalized out of your governor’s hands quite early.  It is not unreasonable to expect a steep curtailment in civil services (latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2010-sep-29-la-heb-pandemic-workers-20100929-story.html).  Expect a sharp uptick in crimes of opportunity-- especially "resource grabs."  

Expect a crowded house.  Many schools, adult-care, and businesses, have a quiet “close on suspicion” policy—even a rumor of a serious flu outbreak might end up with you being home with both your kids and elderly adults.  EVERYONE will log on at once, so don’t expect to work from home. Horrifically, cable may go down, or have loading issues.

Expect anything that breaks to be unavailable for the duration of the event.  If you lose cable TV, the internet, power or water, it might be a longish time before it comes back.  Repair services are kept small since most utilities rely on support from firms not impacted by the “disaster”. EVERYONE will be affected by an epidemic or pandemic. 

Remember “Be Prepared”?  This is why…

​

January 13, 2020:  Oops...

My idea for the State of the Union Address... DJT sends a handwritten, single-page note to Congress saying something like "Things are fine: Despite your attempts to remove me, America is great again. Gridlock is a feature, NOT a bug. I request that you Build the Wall, Starve the Beast and Drain the Swamp." 

Yes, this meets the Requirements of Article II, Section 3, Clause 1. 

November 3, 2019:  The last time I looked up it was still mid-October...

​Discussing “emerging change drivers” a few days back and had some left-over thoughts.  What happens if you no longer need a new car, personal electronics, shingles for your roof, or appliances? What if your clothing never wears out?

I think we are already facing an unsuspected economic driver: technology that never (or at least rarely) breaks or wears out. Instead, it enters a prolonged period of obsolescence, or just “becomes unfashionable.” This is largely due to improved material inputs, better designs, and a routinely encountered level of quality control that would have been unthinkable, maybe undoable, through the 1980s. One of the key uses of “big data” and machine-learning (that actually work as advertised) are systems that monitor capital equipment, predict problems and prescribe preventative maintenance, all of which drastically extend usability.

Radically stretching-out the replacement cycle for capital and personal equipment is going to have massive impacts on manufacturing and even resources extraction industries. Distribution industries shrivel.
• This is immediately noticeable in personal computing devices and cell-phones, which seem to have effectively plateaued from a performance perspective. It has been a long while (in “technology years”) since there was any user-perceptible improvement in computing. At one point my final employer had a “performance lab” testing the major corporate-grade PCs… some of the basic tests were how many times could it be turned on and off without breaking, and how long could it operate without being turned off. There was a running complaint that “laptops were born looking for a place to die.” By 2005 laptops were routinely rotated out of the field and into offices (or donated to charities) when they were no longer “advanced enough” to make our client-facing staff look up to date. They were clearly a fashion item by 2010. Cell phones were worse… purely a fashion item from Day 2. There have been few “Substantive net improvements” since 2011. Tablets now seem to last forever with any degree of care… and again there have been no “substantive net improvements” since 2015.
• Some writers have already pointed out that many vehicles can now run “almost forever” with limited maintenance: personal automobiles used to be worn-out by 50,000 miles: this is half the distance to the first major service point on my current vehicle. Commercial trucks now routinely last over 5,000,000 miles. We used to have to have our cars “oiled and lubed” every 3,000 miles… and you were lucky to get 20,000 miles on your tires: 50.000 is now not uncommon. Even the smallest towns usually had to have multiple service points for vehicles—these jobs are permanently lost.
• Comfortable “permanent” clothing is now possible, with engineered materials and improved polyesters. There was just an IPO for a retail chain selling “gently used” high-ticket fashion clothing. “Clothing subscriptions”, where you essentially rent clothing for a month or so, are out there too. Purses and jewelry can be easily rented.
• Ummm… B52s? Much military equipment world-wide is on its third or fourth owner, as cheap and efficient upgrades are readily available and pretty much do a fine job in oppressing more lightly-armed civilians.

Refurbishment and repair might be a bright spot for some product categories. Many common products are now “NUSPI”, with “no user serviceable parts inside”, with manufacturers trying (and often meeting legal challenges for) requiring service to be done at their facilities (at inflated prices) to keep warranties in operation. “Right to repair” by owners is a growing legal issue in capital equipment circles.

These “technology improvements” are low-hanging fruit that destroy jobs forever, and will drive massive economic change.

September 12, 2019: The Republican Party is not falling apart any more than usual.

I have been hearing a lot of noise and getting mail that the “Republicans are falling apart”, pointing to Anthony Scaramucci’s recent reversal of opinion on Trump.  Let me say right up front that everyone is entitled to an opinion... and by volunteering to help Trump in a position AM has done more for the party and country than I ever have.

While I do not know the man, Scaramucci seems, from what I have seen and read ...fairly typical of the state-level GOP in NY and New England I remember up until about the 1980s.  

I am from the area and it reminds me of the bickering I heard among the “Lace Curtain” Irish and Italian families I knew as I was growing up. Some folks called it “the progressive wing”… but while it seemed a whole lot more culturally open than other factions, it just as fiscally conservative (in a Big State way) as the Establishment wing, just as willing to “project force” on other countries, and equally delighted to ship jobs overseas to add a few percent to the bottom line.  In a lot of ways, they resembled the neoConservatives, former “Warhawk Democrats” who wandered over during the Reagan years, but without the nice suits and suntans.  

To guys like that… Trump betrayed them by putting a coalition together that included non-interventionist economic isolationists (“America Firsters”), Christian Conservatives, the libertarian wing (“Paulistas” now) and midwestern “Main Streeters”.  These were most emphatically NOT “People Like Us”.  Trump beat 16 other candidates, several from each faction, in the last Republican Party primary. The paleoCons (Pat Buchanan-ish) neoConservatives, Fiscal Conservatives (Tea Parties people like Cruz) Big Business Conservatives (Carly Fiorina) and Establishment/ Atlanticist (Bush, etc) factions lost hard and their power/prestige was greatly reduced.

To former insiders and Big Funders, and maybe certain media firms… he broke The Rules. Worse, he did not give them a piece of the pie. Though many of their envoys and figureheads got positions in the Trump Administration… they were soon gone.  He is outside of their control and they have no clue how to handle the situation.

While the 2020 election is far from certain, I think a successful internal challenge is unlikely. Right now Trump seems to have about a 90% approval rating inside the party, right about Reagan levels. People forget how low Reagan and the Bush's ratings dropped at times.

Trump’s coalition, at the grass-roots level, actually had elements of the old Reagan Wave, dragging in the (old) trade union members, but NOT their leadership. Trump has pulled in a lot of Blacks and Hispanics too— far more than previous Republicans.  I think I am personally seeing a lot more local support than I would have anticipated in an area rather over-endowed with universities and high-technology firms… firmly liberal/progressive in voting… state-level as well (outside of core-urban districts).  I would expect very little support from the “Swamp” DJT is trying to drain.

With the exception of Nate Silver at 538 (whose work on both Republican and Democrat internal groups is detailed, precise, and likely to be right), pundits seem to forget that political parties in the US are coalitions of stakeholder factions with only moderately overlapping opinions and interests that vary depending on geography and level of concern (local, state or federal)… ideology is in there somewhere, but a local fiscal conservative can be very different from one at the federal level. 

As far as I can tell at this time, we are just seeing the usual internal bickering from the losing players in an internal fracas.

​

September 10, 2019: Where did it go?

I would have bet my entire allowance that I wrote and posted another "Rant at the Commissioner of Baseball" back in mid August.  I have no clue where it ended up but it, or something else, will be up shortly.

July 6, 2019:  More on the Census "Citizenship Question"... again.

There has been lots of talk by the Former Slaveowners’ Party recently about how Evil Republicans are trying to Mess With The Census, Dominate Elections and Destroy America's Future by asking citizenship-related questions on the next Census. Several Attorneys General have promised to sue the Federal Government over the issue. The Supreme Court was not satisfied with the research and said, essentially, try again. You need to know, though, that the data is still being collected for mandatory federal reporting.

2010—The Citizenship question was moved to the American Community Census, that will hit everyone about every 5 years.  It asked Where was this person born? Is this person a citizen of the United States?  Is this person a citizen of the United States?

2019: The Current American Community Survey asks “about place of birth, citizenship, and year of entry to provide statistics about citizens and the foreign-born population.”  

Census states:  “Examples of Federal Uses ·

• Required in the enforcement responsibilities under the Voting Rights Act's bilingual requirements, to determine eligible voting populations for analysis and for presentation in federal litigation. ·
• Required to enforce against discrimination in education, employment, voting, financial assistance, and housing. ·
• Used in many reporting and research tasks to investigate whether there are differences for citizens and foreign-born individuals in education, employment, home ownership, health, income and many other areas of interest to policymakers. “ 

So, based on the question being moved to a different, though still mandatory Census Questionnaire, THE CITIZENSHIP QUESTION IS GOING TO BE ASKED AND ANSWERED TWICE AS OFTEN AS BEFORE.

BACKGROUND: For the record, EVERY SINGLE US Census in the 20th Century except 1960 asked directly, under penalty of perjury, about Citizenship.

ALL demanded place of birth, PARENTS' place of birth and languages spoken. Most asked about "ancestry" or ethnicity. Interesting, many of the surveys asked if the respondent was an idiot or insane, questions that should be considered for re-instatement. Place of birth, from which some estimate of citizenship can be derived, has been asked, in some form, since the seventh decennial census in 1850.

The Question was asked DIRECTLY 1850-1950, 1960-2000. 

 1790 – Not asked.

1800—Not asked

1810—Not asked

1820—They asked for “foreigners not naturalized”.

1830— They asked for “ALIENS—Foreigners not naturalized”

1840—Not Asked.

1850—“Place of birth”

1860-  “Place of birth”

1870—“Place of Birth”

1880—“Place of Birth” for respondent AND their parents.

1890—Place of birth of respondent and parents the number of years they have been in the US, and if they are naturalized or seeking naturalization.

1900— Under the Nativity header Place of birth of respondent and parents.  Under the Citizenship header they asked the year of immigration to the US, number of years in the US and naturalization date.

1910—Under the Nativity header they asked Place of birth of respondent and parents.  Under the Citizenship header they asked Year of immigration and whether naturalized or Alien.

1920—Under the Nativity and Language Header they asked Place of birth of respondent and parents  and their mother tongue.  Under the Citizenship header they asked year of immigration to the US, Naturalized or alien, and year of naturalization.

1930—place of birth and native language of the respondent and their parents.  Under the Citizenship Header the year of immigration to the Us and “naturalized or alien”.

1940—The Population Questionnaire asked: Place of birth and native language of respondent and parents. Under a citizenship Header citizenship of the foreign born.

1950—The Population Questionnaire asked: "What state was he born in? If Foreign-born is he naturalized?”

1960—The Combined Questionnaire asked place of birth, native language if foreign-born, parent’s birth countries.

1970—The Population Questionnaire asked Where the person was born, and details on whether they were Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, Central or South American, or Other Spanish; parent’s place of birth, What language, other than English, was spoken in the person's home as a child, immigration status and year.

1980—A SAMPLE was asked In what state or foreign country was the person born, and if foreign born, their year of immigration and naturalization status.

1990-- A SAMPLE was asked: In what state or foreign country was the person born, and if foreign born, their year of immigration and naturalization status.

2000- Everyone was asked: What state or country was this person from?  Is this person a citizen of the United States? If the person was not born in the United States, when did he come to live in the United States?

2010—The question was moved to the American Community Census, that will hit everyone about every 5 years.  It asked Where was this person born? Is this person a citizen of the United States?  Is this person a citizen of the United States?

2019: The Current American Community Survey asks “about place of birth, citizenship, and year of entry to provide statistics about citizens and the foreign-born population.”  Census states:

“Examples of Federal Uses ·

• Required in the enforcement responsibilities under the Voting Rights Act's bilingual requirements, to determine eligible voting populations for analysis and for presentation in federal litigation. ·
  
• Required to enforce against discrimination in education, employment, voting, financial assistance, and housing.
  
• Used in many reporting and research tasks to investigate whether there are differences for citizens and foreign-born individuals in education, employment, home ownership, health, income and many other areas of interest to policymakers. “ 
  

So, based on the question being moved to a different, though still mandatory Census Questionnaire, THE CITIZENSHIP QUESTION IS GOING TO BE ASKED AND ANSWERED TWICE AS OFTEN AS BEFORE.

June 18, 2019:  A Gentle Reminder.

​OK, Gentle Reminder Time again. When the Talking Head is screaming about Significant New Poll Results: 

1. Go to the website. 
   
2. Scroll all the way down until you find the disclaimers on the sample size, location, polling method and other characteristics.
   
3. THEN read the question. 
   
4. THEN read the results.
   

National polls with sample sizes under 5000 are not generally indicative of anything other than how desperate the media editors are for fresh copy.  

Oh... see if you can find out who paid for the poll.

I had several experiences last cycle of political pollsters calling me and hanging up when I answered a question the "wrong way".  I sincerely doubt that ethics have improved much.

April 3, 2019: Are Democrats test-marketing on Quora?

OK, I waste far too much time on Quora... but I have concluded there is a badly programmed AI using Quora to market test Democrat 2020 campaign slogans and marketing strategy variations. 

Almost identical question are being posted almost simultaneously on:

• Possible Trump Collusion with Russia
  
• Gun Control
  
• Repealing the Second Amendment 
  
• Healthcare  
  
• Universal Basic Income
  
• Statehood for Puerto Rico 
  
• Where Trump’s father was born? 
  
• Replacing the Electoral College 
  
• NATO membership 
  
• Is the US the World Bully?
  
• Is (name your Democrat Candidate) disqualified for being too touchy-feely?
  
• What would it take for me to vote against Trump?
  
• Is Trump a pathological liar?
  
• Closing the border
  
• Immigration
  

Just saw a new theme developing on Term Limits... I guess someone is concerned about the Calls for an Article Five Convention. 

These posts are different from those of the still-very-visible Troll Farms... you can see multiple levels of "inflammatory verbiage"("Mild, Hot and Incendiary" leap to mind) and twists on the concept all posted at the same time on the same forum, and retested on different forums. 

I am fairly certain that the same thing is going on over on Twitter, but I keep getting distracted by the newsfeeds I subscribe to over there.

March 23, 2019:  Thoughts on Americans and Firearms.

 Sorry to be away for so long, I have been wasting my time snarking at Wrongwingers over on Quora. The most common question I see these days is some variation on "Why do so many people in the USA have guns?"  This is a summary of my responses.

American’s right to keep and bear arms PREDATES the founding of the United States, and is rooted in cultural and political opinions dating to Saxon times.  Firearms ownership and proficiency was legally required for all males from age 15 to 55 from the earliest settlements through at least 1862 when large numbers of poor immigrants and freed slaves were “recruited” into state militias… this pretty much ended the free militias, though the tradition remains in place— one of our Framers said “the Militia is the Whole of the People” and the both the right and RESPONSIBILITY to keep and bear arms remains a core belief for a majority of citizens.

Keep in mind that the true role of the militia is to protect citizens against Governments gone bad”. Militia companies were self-funding, and elected their own officers uncontroled by politicians. Many of the Founders and Framers had ancestors who had fought in the English Civil War (on either side), or had fled religious persecution in England, and had NO interest in letting any government gaining tyrannical power over them under any circumstances.

Firearms ownership was specifically required for all citizens by the Second Militia Act of 1792.  All citizens were required to have the panoply and skills of an infantryman. 
"Section 1. Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That each and every free able-bodied white male citizen of the respective states, resident therein, who is or shall be of the age of eighteen years, and under the age of forty-five years (except as is herein after excepted) shall severally and respectively be enrolled in the militia by the captain or commanding officer of the company, within whose bounds such citizen shall reside, and that within twelve months after the passing of this act. And it shall at all times hereafter be the duty of every such captain or commanding officer of a company to enrol every such citizen, as aforesaid, and also those who shall, from time to time, arrive at the age of eighteen years, or being of the age of eighteen years and under the age of forty-five years (except as before excepted) shall come to reside within his bounds; and shall without delay notify such citizen of the said enrolment, by a proper non-commissioned officer of the company, by whom such notice may be proved. That every citizen so enrolled and notified, shall, within six months thereafter, provide himself with a good musket or firelock,a sufficient bayonet and belt, two spare flints, and a knapsack, a pouch with a box therein to contain not less than twenty-four cartridges, suited to the bore of his musket or firelock, each cartridge to contain a proper quantity of powder and ball: or with a good rifle, knapsack, shot-pouch and powder-horn, twenty balls suited to the bore of his rifle, and a quarter of a pound of powder; and shall appear, so armed, accoutred and provided, when called out to exercise, or into service, except, that when called out on company days to exercise only, he may appear without a knapsack. That the commissioned officers shall severally be armed with a sword or hanger and espontoon, and that from and after five years from the passing of this act, all muskets for arming the militia as herein required, shall be of bores sufficient for balls of the eighteenth part of a pound. And every citizen so enrolled, and providing himself with the arms, ammunition and accoutrements required as aforesaid, shall hold the same exempted from all suits, distresses, executions or sales, for debt or for the payment of taxes."

How many firearms do we have?   In the US, NCIS reports show that over 350,000,000 firearms were purchased from licensed dealers between 1999 and 2018... my guess is that there are easily an additional DOUBLE (meaning 4 times) of that in people's closets (possibly far more), since firearms are permanent and cumulative. My friends have and shoot “inherited” firearms that are a century old.  Making firearms from raw materials is possible in any workshop with only moderate skills.  There are, literally, trillions of rounds of ammunition in storage;  reloading is a common practice.

 A 2017 Pew Research Survey (“America’s Complex Relationship With Guns”) indicated that, overall, 42% of adults willing to ADMIT to strangers that they are living in “gun-owning households.” The best guesstimate I have seen indicates that 65% of US households “have access to firearms”.

​Firearms ownership and skills are an integral part of the unique American culture.

January 26, 2019:  My idea for the State of the Union Address

My idea for the State of the Union Address... DJT sends a handwritten, single-page note to Congress saying something like "Things are fine: America is great again. Gridlock is a feature, NOT a bug. I request that you Build the Wall, Starve the Beast and Drain the Swamp." 

Yes, this meets the Requirements of Article II, Section 3, Clause 1. 

December 16, 2018:  Clue-free, but with Republished Guesswork.

I freely admit I am in hiding right now, mostly scanning news and analysis in search of Clue.  I have written and discarded multiple potential blog entries this month.  Last month too, for that matter.  Like many, I have been watch events in both the US and EU with morbid fascination.  I am not in the least comfortable in calling these “revolts” populist, as I see them rather as a generic, non-coordinated anti-Elite movement which actually includes members of various non-ruling elites. 

OPINION: No 2019-2020 political, economic or investing projection that does NOT consider the impact of world-wide "populist revolts" should be relied on. My best guess is that we are seeing a neoJacksonian Upwelling in many Western nations, and that this revolt will both spread and intensify. 

Jacksonianism was first described in 1999 by Walter Russell Mead in "The Jacksonian Tradition", an article published in The National Interest.  I  strongly urge all to read this, plus his award-winning expansion of the theme in Special Providence: American Foreign Policy and How it Changed the World.   Mead's article on Hudson.org, "The Jacksonian Revolt" is equally enlightening.  In many ways neoJacksonianism is what happens when the Jacksonian outlook escapes the normal, elite-dominated communication channels and encounters social media.

I have taken the liberty of resurrecting some blog entries from 2010 where I address neoJacksonianism and make some guesses.If you are interested in my earlier predictions, please look over to the left hand side of this page for a "neoJacksonism" tab.

October 7, 2018:  Idle thoughts on an Autumnal evening.

..and we now sit and wait for Democrats to fabricate their next potential Fort Sumter moment. Wait for it... expect it and FIGHT it.  

The 2018 Mid-term Elections may be a turning point, regardless of which party wins or loses control. Cultural traditions of political civility have just evaporated.

Right now I just do not trust any of the polls or analyses that I am seeing—and I note that I am seeing far fewer of them than I expect to see by this point in the election cycle.  I would really like to think that News Is Being Suppressed but… honestly, I suspect that the already limited news budgets were spent on other more pressing (at the moment) things (stories about Fluffy Kittens and sports do not come cheap). Polls with fewer than 500 respondents are... insulting.  They should at least pretend to care about being accurate predictors. 

I am not seeing many campaign commercials either which is …odd.  There is the strong possibility that my local market just does not have anything the parties see as worth spending money on this cycle.

You KNOW how to do this—

• VOTE as soon as your early voting option opens.
  
• DRIVE: Offer to take your friends to the polls if they need a ride.
  
• SPEND: Send money to your candidates--- even five dollars will help. I sent my county party and both candidates to represent me modest contributions this time.  We have budgeted for ongoing contributions for "local party building."
  
• CONTACT Congress with your opinion, conveyed in a civil manner. Remember how to do that?  Be nice to the office staffer--- I will bet they are having a very bad day.
  
• JOIN organizations that support your principles, quit those which do not. This includes political parties if you are not yet a member of one.

Speak the Truth and fear no one.  We are well past the time when "worrying about losing friends" is an option. 

September 21, 2018:  Some thoughts on Ethnicity Testing.

There is a lot of conversation and confusion on the various “genetic genealogy” Facebook pages I frequent, and much consumer unhappiness.  In far to many cases people are asking “what do these results MEAN?  I am being shown as a different ethnicity than I KNOW I am.” 

One of the key problems that people are having, as far as I can tell, is that they Just Were Not Listening in History or Geography Class.    Few want to think that their ancestors walked for a living and mixed their genes whenever they could. Fewer want to think that their ancestors were just as promiscuous as they are.  Vital records really didn’t become mandatory in most places until the 1880s and free access to them is blocked in many jurisdictions.  Almost nobody wants to think that their carefully constructed Family History might just be a pile of bad data and worse speculation, compounded by a lot of misheard conversations and wishful thinking.  If you are going to start researching in this space be prepared for a LOT of reading.

A few years back I had an Extended Conversation with the FTDNA help desk.  They “did not disagree” with my summation that the ethnicity estimates “pretty much show where people with genes similar to yours, and thus share some level of common ancestry, live now.”   No one, at any company, has been willing to go into detail on their genetic samples.  This is causing a lot of confusion... for example:

As of 2018 I have had autosomal DNA tests from FTDNA, NatGeo2, Ancestry and 23&Me.  We have pretty good paper trails to the late 1790s on my father’s Italian ancestors, and the 1860’s on my mother’s Irish and Scots ancestry.  My mtDNA links, H7D2A are from Central Ireland, possibly linked through gallowglasses to the Hebrides and Scandinavia.  yDNA is I-A8689 (FTDNA) or I-L11949 (yFull) with few, VERY old matches to Germany.  My patriline may or may not have served in Constantine’s Palace Guard, the Palatini.  Numbers reported below are rounded.  I suspect that many of you will have the same experience.

• FTDNA recently updated its research and “My Origins” shifted oddly.  The first run had me 99% European, the second 89%; British Isles 37% changed to 49%; Southern Europe’s 34% changed to 8%; Western and Central Europe 23% changed to 32% and the Finland and Northern Siberia 5% changed to Zero.  Oddly, I now have a Jewish Diaspora-Sephardic component of 11%.  No clue where THAT came from, but I suspect they are picking up my deep “Irish” ancestors, who might have spent the last Ice Age in a hypothetical “Iberian Refuge.” 
• I ran the FTDNA data over at DNA.land, and got Northwest European 38%, Mediterranean islander 20%, Northeastern Europe 11% and South European 10%.
• Ancestry listed me as 55% “Ireland Scotland and Wales,” but from Munster and Kerry (our paper trail leads to Cork and Monaghan); 19% “European South” and in slight confirmation of FTDNA, 14% from the Iberian Peninsula.  A bunch of rounding errors included Great Britain, Caucasus, Europe East, Middle East and Scandinavia at 2% each—Contrasting with FTDNA, they hold my European Jewish ancestry to be under 1%.
• UPDATE 2018 10 26:  Ancestry just changed my mix.  I am now Ireland and Scotland, 58% (from 55), England, Wales and Northwestern Europe 23% (a new group, includes essentially everything west of Vienna), France, 12% (Huh?), Germanic Europe 4% (looks like Belluno is in there) Norway 2%  and Italy 1% (showing WAY south on their map).  So… very odd.  Mom’s side is from Ireland and Scotland, Dad’s from... North East Italy… maybe the yDNA trail goes into Germany, so… adding all the Carolingian stuff together  40% where it should be roughly 50%.  Iberia gone bye-bye.
  
• 23 and Somebody projects, rounded off, 45% British and Irish, 15% French and German, 12% Italian, 5% Iberian and “Broadly Northwestern European” at 11%, Broad Southern European at 8%.  I am amazed (OK, appalled) that they are “confident enough” to predict numbers on the right hand side of a decimal point.
• NatGeo pretty much waved their hands in the air and said “you are from over there someplace”:  Mediterranean 42%, Northern European 38% and Southwest Asian 18%. They listed me as 2.3% Neanderthal, 1.9% Denisovan by ancestry, very slightly more Otherly Human than average.  For comparison, 23&Me says I have 285 Neanderthal traits, more than 65% of their clients.
• Davidski’s Admixture Tests on GEDmatch—especially the EuK15-- predicted North Sea 30%, Atlantic 23%, Baltic 7% Eastern Europe 11%, West Mediterranean 15%, West Asian5%, East Mediterranean 7%, and a lot of small noise.  I ran a bunch of the others just for fun but didn’t keep the results.  I highly recommend that you run the Archaic DNA Matches as it can give you a good view of your “deep ancestry.”

Please remember that you are at the cutting edge of a new science and approach to history—your data will be re-analyzed by somebody every time something new is discovered, and that is roughly every day. You can help by filling in all the questions at your test vendor site, and answering the email other researchers will no doubt send you.

August 26, 2018:  An Earnest Plea to the Commissioner of Baseball

​To the Commissioner of Baseball:  

I hate to bother you, sir, but I have some thoughts that might help improve baseball.

Pitchers are burning out way too fast, mostly, I think, due to the Cult of the Fast Ball.  Yes, it is exciting, but should kids be getting Tommy John’s Surgery?  All the subtlety is gone… put a speed camera behind the plate and call every pitch over 95mph an automatic ball.  Heck, if nothing else, the umpire might actually be able to see where the ball went.  Hint hint.

Pitchers are hitting batters far too often, perhaps due to speed-induced fatigue.  I think safety would be improved if hitting the batter meant he got an automatic run for his team, NOT just first base.  No one else has to advance… no RBIs, for example.  The injured batter just heads back to the bench and the scorer puts a new number up on the board.  I think pitchers and coaches will get the point very quickly.

The defensive shift is out of hand and is leading to boringball.  Too many games this year have been mostly watching people play catch and walk back and forth from the bench.  I know that eventually more batters will learn to spread their targets, but… right now it is driving viewers away, something you cannot afford.

It might not be your problem, but could you tell the sportscasters to shut up, or at least talk about the game we are watching?  I watch Yankee games on MLBTV and AtBat… a lot of the ESPN and Fox sports casters are talking about other things than baseball… I have no interest in their life stories, who they know, or their golf scores.  Honest. One begins to believe they see the game as an interruption to their dialogue.  I don’t want to hear politics either.

What happened to speeding up the game?  It seems that, extra innings aside, things are taking forever.  Maybe they don’t need to give replacement pitchers a zillion warm-up pitches?  I have started giving up after 3 hours, no matter what else is happening.

..and OK, please sell advertising time to more companies.  I am tired of back-to-back, full-minute long commercials for pharmaceuticals.  I turned off the video feed on one game last month after a dozen repetitions of one particular advertisement, and just listened to it on the audio feed. They played the "Cars for Kids" spot too often, but it was an improvement.

Finally, what is this silliness with funny uniforms and hats?  Are the teams THAT desperate for funds that they need to sell clothing to make payroll?  I missed the highlights of a blacked-out game this morning since I didn’t see uniforms I recognized!

Thanks for your attention---

July 28, 2018:  Guest Column by The Mysterious Red-haired Woman

​I left the vision center wearing my darkest sunglasses, clutching the receipt for the lenses carrying my newly minted prescription and went home to wait for my vision to clear from the eye exam dilation chemicals.  Things were still blurry when I went to bed but, no worries.  Mine was a late afternoon eye exam and the eye drops might still be in my system I thought. The double vision was still firmly in place when I awoke the next morning. After Google searches indicated dilation’s normal duration seldom exceeding 6 hours, I returned to the vision center as soon as they opened to express my concern.  The vision center agreed my condition wasn’t usual. They rechecked my sight with glasses and without, pronouncing everything the same as the first exam including the recommended prescription. Maybe my system was different, they said.  Perhaps I should just wait a while longer for the drops to wear off.

I don’t wait well, especially when my analytical subconscious knows I missed something.  But, these folks were certified specialists, so I took their advice and waited, somewhat. My husband and I also started researching and not just internet searches.  We consulted my insurance carrier’s nurse information line, contacted my primary care doctor to secure a referral to an ophthalmologist for a second opinion. My double vision persisted while we worked through day 2 and day 3 after dilation.

On day 4, I was rewarded with an early morning appointment.  The ophthalmologist’s technician quietly took all my information, repeated the same vision tests short of dilating my eyes. She was puzzled.  All looked good except for my double vision complaint. She looked at my glasses and asked if any adjustments had been made by the optician at the vision center.  Yes, I said.  I asked for updated lenses for my frames. And yes, the optician said she had to trace the lenses to ensure a good fit with the new lenses. The technician took them to “read” their prescription and “Eureka”, the right and left lenses had been switched! The vision center switched the lenses back to normal later that with sincere apologies.

Here’s the “sad but true” moral of this story.  Multiple, simple, quality checks were missed in this saga, any one of which would have shortened or eliminated the terror I experienced at the prospect of my vision having been permanently impaired. 

• The vision center optician on day 1 did not verify the lenses position in my glasses after measuring the replacement lenses.
  
• The re-exam at the vision center on day 2 did not repeat the “reading” my glasses prescription, so no comparison was possible.  Nor, honestly, was one offered. 
  
• The ophthalmologist technician didn’t initially think to evaluate my glasses but, as a former optician, she considered the glasses once all the other tests hadn’t solved the problem.
  

​My subconscious was right, as usual, but it lacked the knowledge to solve the problem.  Stress of the situation didn’t help critical thinking either. The struggle to obtain that knowledge through the insurance and medical machine was equally stressful but, thankfully, I was believed.

I hope this story helps you believe your subconscious when it tells you to get more, better information. Thanks for listening.

​

July 27, 2018 How do you handle potentially "fake news"?

​I am currently more involved than I would like to be  in a flame-war… details are less than unimportant, but it raised an interesting problem:  how do you know when something was fake news?
Background: 

• A criminal event was reported without substantiation—no link to a police report, news story or anything.  Just a statement of something that the poster claimed to have happened to their friend.  Please note that the posting was to a members-only bulletin board, and that the organization sponsoring it is growing so fast that not everyone knows everybody.  Heck, I know almost nobody there any more, even by reputation.  I am just about ready to give up even trying.
  

• It was suggested by several other experienced, well-known posters that it might be a rumor, as several “roughly similar events” have been reported over the last few years, and that people should wait until the facts, if any came out.
  

• People on both sides became extremely enthusiastic and vivid in their opinions..
  

• Within a few hours there was credible, multiple-source substantiation of the story.  People are still posting.  Feelings are hurt. Foolhardy things are being said.  I have added several names to my  "People To Ignore" list..
  

So… how do you determine if something is the first report of an important breaking event,  the mindless gossip of people with time on their hands, or a malicious attempt to manipulate events with untrue, partially true, or misleadingly portrayed information?

There are some relatively straight-forward methods that require only a little effort on your part.  I hate quoting myself, but: "The simplest methodology is lifted from the US military, so you already paid for it. With it, you focus on the source and the credibility of the information, leading to a simple alphanumeric designator, such as "A1" or "F6".
​​

Reliability is based on the known performance of the source of the information, and is rated alphabetically:
a- Completely Reliable
b- Usually Reliable
c- Fairly reliable
d- Not Usually Reliable
e- Unreliable
f- Reliability Unknown

Credibility focuses on the information itself: Is it believable as a thing in itself?
1- Confirmed by Other Sources
2- Probably True
3- Possibly True
4- Doubtful
5- Improbable
6- Credibility unknown”
Look at each story you see and assign it a classification number, based on your subjective experiences, before passing it along.  Think about what it means. You might decide not to repost, to repost with warnings, or hold the story and its original poster up to ridicule….  Your choice, but at least you will be examining each story by the same standards.  If nothing else you might think about why you trust a certain source more or less than others, and gain a greater understanding of your personal “standards of belief” and why you think this way.  It may feel unnatural at first, but it is better than feeling like an idiot later.

After a while you may decide just not to read certain data flows, since the source just isn’t up to your standards.  Note that this does NOT mean that they aren’t right some of the time, or are being malicious, or acting as full-time Agents of Evil.  Remember though, the first report of something important can be from an unreliable source of improbable information... you have to know the characteristics of your own, personal Lunatic Fringe.   

Never forget that your personal reputation as an information provider hangs with everything you post online.  Bad information, analysis and assessment can be with you forever.

July 16, 2018:  Soft on RUSSIA?

Lots of Talking Heads on the mainstream media screaming that Trump is treasonously soft on the Russians. Really?

Since he was sworn in, DJT has

• Requested a 10% US military spending increase, focused on preparedness.
• Reinforced NATO positions in Norway and the Baltic nations, prepositioning major amounts of war material.
• Insisted that NATO members increase spending to the REQUIRED amount they previously agreed to, and urged doubling that amount.
• Destroyed a large Russian mercenary force attacking a US position near Dier Ezzor, Syria.
• Repeatedly used military force against Syria, a Russian ally.
  
• Reactivated a US Navy Fleet and repositioned it in the North Atlantic as a response to increased Russian submarine activity.
• Imposed harsh sanctions, freezing all US assets of several Putin-allied Russian oligarchs and officials.
• Objected to Germany becoming dependent on Russian Oil and natural gas.
  
• Initiated two new military Commands for Cyber and Space warfare.
• Approved the admittance of  Montenegro to NATO against specific Russian protests.
• Provided anti-tank missiles and defensive technologies to Ukraine and the Baltic nations-- Obama had refused to do this after the Crimea was seized.
• Closed Russian consulates and declared 60 Russian diplomats persona non grata in response to the Russians publicly nerve gassing their former spy and his child in UK .

This was just off the top of my head, without research.  I am sure I have missed a few things.   

I seem to recall that during the October 22, 2012 Presidential Debate Obama told Romney “the 1980’s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back — because the Cold War has been over for 20 years.”  Looks like the Democrats have changed their mind on a few things... or do they think YOU have forgotten?  Remember Hillary giving Putin a "relationship reset" button that said "That Was Easy" when pushed?

Looks like the Warhawks are back.  Don’t forget Democrats Presidents got us involved in  WW1, WW2*, Korea, Viet Nam and, to be honest, the American Civil War.

________________

* Check FDR's policies BEFORE Pearl Harbor....

June 15, 2018:  MINOR Genealogy update
 To my surprise and delight, I just had a hit on my yDNA line, (passed directly from father to son) from a different branch of the clan.  Our lines both seem to have branched off from the same forefather within about 20 generations or so… early 1500s.  My only other link prior to this was back at roughly 450 AD, so this is quite an improvement.  The dates will shift, as there was a lot of intermarriage in the small, remote Alpine village our ancestors spent time in, and that can mess up calculations.  

I had pretty much given up on this line of research since our branch is VERY small, and few people have actually spent the money to be tested.  Genes for frugality are entirely hypothetical, mind you.  Frugality is just a …virtue. Honest.  More testing, analysis and research needs to be done but… hey, that is the fun part.  TWO links from the same place is interesting.  I have been testing and upgrading since 2003, started and "tested out" at FTDNA.com (and yFull), and have just taken the Ancestry.com test to support my family tree there.  The 23&me version is next... big sale on now.

yDNA and mtDNA are mostly useful for deep genealogy, not the “out to fourth cousin” tests commonly advertised for finding ethnicity.  In my opinion, though, it is where the really useful and interesting stuff on human migrations is hidden. I am I-a8689, sometimes called I2A3, or even I-P37.2*Alpine (depending on when you last looked) for yDNA, the original pre-Ice Age settlers of Europe.  My mom’s folks, H7D2A wandered in after things warmed up.  She always hated cold weather.

May 7, 2018: ​​​​Hawaii is NOT Puerto Rico
Looks like a major disaster might be winding up in Hawaii— time to think before the knee-jerk anti-administration ranting about racially biased aid distribution begins. (“Asians” and Islanders are ethnic majorities on Hawaii, just as Hispanics are on Puerto Rico.)​

Volcanos and earthquakes are NOT hurricanes.  From a recovery perspective, volcanos and earthquakes are geographically limited, relatively contained events, with a huge hinterland that will remain at least relatively undamaged.  Hurricane Maria, for comparison, stretched 300 miles, far wider than the Island, and moved directly from Puerto Rico up the sea route needed to bring relief to the island, blocking them completely until the storm moved on.  There was NO place to run, nowhere to hide.  In Hawaii, disaster recovery can be staged from "just down the road a bit." 

Massive, featured -on-Discover Channel style eruptions are NOT likely. Kilauea’s eruptions seem, historically, to have a Volcanic Explosivity Index near zero, with lava flows typified as effusive and continuous.  UPDATE MAY 10, 2018: USGS has mentioned the possibility of phreatic "steam" explosions from Kilauea. This could be Very Bad. It could also be bureaucratic butt-covering, or a press-generated distraction.  Estimates include debris in the 10-ton chunk range.

Earthquakes—and 6.9 is bigger than I would ever want to experience-- are driven by local vulcanism.  (OK, Mega-tsunamis could be huge if there is a major landslide.  These have been massive but are uncommon... but could do more damage to nearby islands than an eruption. The solution is to head uphill fast. Based on its disaster site, California seems far more concern about tsunamis generated by local plate tectonics than by distant landslides.) 

Some drone footage seems to show that the major lava pools have drained, so the even might be working itself out-- there is plenty more hot glowing rock where today's shipment came from, though.

Hawaii is not Puerto Rico.  Both are islands, but it pretty much stops there.  Hawaiian infrastructure is reportedly in much better condition than its PR counterpart was.  People KNEW they were building near a volcano.  Vulcanism is a well-understood part of Hawaiian life—in fact, it is a tourist attraction.   

On the other hand, both are pretty much single-party states. Neither seemed to pay much attention to civil defense.  Evacuation is, in both cases, pretty much impossible in any realistic time-frame.  

Competent help is nearby.  Even though the US military is not set up for large scale civilian disaster relief,  Hawaii has many military bases that will be likely untouched by anything other than an expectedly large and explosive eruption.  Further, the bases on the pacific Coast will remain untouched under most circumstances.  Help can move into place swiftly, despite the distance.  Bases on Puerto Rico were shut down by 2005.

With vulcanism, the best risk remediation is Being Somewhere Else When It Happens.

​

May 4, 2018: ​​​Throwing Money At A Problem...

Throwing even limited amounts of money at a problem is usually my LEAST favorite way to improve things, but sometimes You Just Gotta…

You Tube is aligning itself with the rest of the Google and Facebook properties and seems actively intent on eliminating nonProgressive information feeds.  They deny this is the case, of course.

There are a couple of ways to respond—some free.

• Friend and Subscribe to every moderate, conservative and firearms related Facebook Page and You Tube Channel you find.  You do NOT have to read them all.  There are great non-mainstream news sources on Facebook, such as Geopolitical Futures, STRATFOR, The Daily Caller, Drudge, Townhall Media… check your favorite news sources and they are most likely there, even if Facebook doesn’t want to show them in your Newsfeed.  Don’t let Facebook think you don’t care! Be sure to link with your favored candidates for office too.

• Look for alternatives to Facebook, Instagram, Google and YouTube.  Google is EASILY replaced by privacy-friendly sites like DuckDuckGo and StartPage.  Web pages are cheap these days—I use GoDaddy, but there are a lot of them out there, some free.  I used to blog every week but was seduced into a major Facebook… presence.  I hope this will change.
  

• Consider setting up a Patreon account, and making small, monthly contributions to Channels you support.  VERY little worthwhile is free.   Making videos is expensive, and You Tube is refusing to place advertising on many sites they think of as “inappropriate”, like a Whole Bunch of history-related channels.  (Sadly, history was often violent and contained weapons.)  Most free You Tube channels are extremely happy to accept a dollar a month as a fee.  I am sneaking into this myself, and support 5 channels for a buck a month.
  

• Buy some Google and Facebook stock.  This is NOT investment advice— Stockholder Relations is the BEST complaint Department, and even a single share will make them listen politely.  Keep in mind that since most of their growth and revenue is from overseas they really don’t care… but they HAVE to track stockholder comments.  eMail is CHEAP, so use it freely.  This will prove useful over time.
  

You can help keep us from being submerged forever under a wave of feel-good, fluffy-kitten progressive media output. This is, sad to say, a long, drawn-out struggle where the Bad Guys LITERALLY own the high ground.

March 27, 2018:  Civis Americanus Sum.

There has been lots of talk by the Former Slaveowners’ Party this week about how Evil Republicans are trying to Mess With The Census, Dominate Elections and Destroy America's Future by asking citizenship-related questions on the next Census. Several Attorneys General have promised to sue the Federal Government over the issue.

For the record, EVERY SINGLE US Census in the 20th Century except 1960 asked directly, under penalty of perjury, about Citizenship.  ALL demanded  place of birth, PARENTS' place of birth and languages spoken. Most asked about "ancestry" or ethnicity. Interesting, many of the surveys asked if the respondent was an idiot or insane, questions that should be considered for re-instatement.  Place of birth, from which some estimate of citizenship can be derived, has been asked, in some form, since the seventh decennial census in 1850. The Question was asked DIRECTLY 1850-1950, 1970-2000.

I checked with my own eyeballs at the official US Census website. YOU can do that too.  The Democrats are counting on you NOT to do it.  What are YOU going to do?

The link:   census.gov/history/www/through_the_decades/index_of_questions/2010.html

​​February 23, 2018:  "Turkey Shoot" or Chicken... Droppings?

I posted some links on my Facebook page over the past few days on an even in the Middle East that is being called the “Deir Ezzor Turkey Shoot”, an armed conflict between US and Russian forces in Syria.  There has been essentially NO mainstream media coverage of this story in the US. I just might be having some second thoughts about it, though.

Back in early February there were mainstream media reports that a US drone had hellfired an old Russian T-72 tank in Syria.  No real follow-up or excitement then, but over the next 15 days there were increasing and conflicting rumors—including reports on Bloomberg, Reuters and ABC-- that a MAJOR event had occurred.  UPDATE: on April 12, 2018 Mr. Pompeo confirmed during his confirmation hearings for Secretary of State that a "couple of hundred Russians were killed" in Syria.

Summing up the rumor-stream it was suggested that:

• ​A partially mechanized battalion (approximately 700 troops) of Russian mercenaries, with tanks and artillery, possibly lead by Russian Special Forces officers, crossed the Euphrates on a temporary bridge they constructed and attacked an Allied outpost staffed by Kurds with US Special Forces advisors.  UPDATE, May 1, 2018:  In response to complaints, if you want to make a distinction between "mercenary" and "professional military contractor", feel free.  Marketing is important to some people.
  
• After warnings were made to the Russians to “deconflict the airspace”, the mercenaries were essentially annihilated by a massive strike from B52 bombers dropping JDAM and conventional, “dumber,” bombs in an “Arc Light” style strike while the initial attack was underway.  Estimates have ranged up to 600 deaths, with more wounded or missing.  Follow-up forces didn’t find any remaining targets.  No allied casualties reported. There are reports that audio recordings from the mercenary’s radio net are being widely distributed.  
  
• The Russian Defense Department—and Putin—denied involvement.  The White House had no comment.

While it is fairly obvious SOMETHING happened it is hard to figure out where on the “One drone, one missile, one tank three dead” to “an entire Russian mechanized battalion exterminated in under 10 minutes” continuum the truth lies.

• No official government or para-government organization has really made anything like a formal statement on this, though sillier things get their attention.
  
• There has been NO YouTube cellphone video, though an event of this scale SHOULD have been audible and visible for MILES. 
  
• No civilian drone footage of the battle zone has made it online. The impact of the air attacks should be visible from orbit… not a film clip anywhere. 
  
• Most tellingly, there has been NO strident antiAmerican rants and claims of genocidal warmongering from the antiTrump media industry, or opposition politicians in a tightly contested election year.  Further, an administration that has proven to take delights in announcing its accomplishments has said Not One Single Thing.
  

Several correspondents of mine have suggest the whole event is being kept quiet to avoid escalating tensions and permit each side to back down gracefully.  Others think that the Mercenaries were operating “on their own” trying to capture an oil field.  I agreed for awhile that Messages Were Being Sent by the US to Russia, Turkey, China, Iran and North Korea.

I now suspect that we are seeing active misinformation, disinformation and malinformation campaigns by several players, including, but not limited to, proPutin and antiPutin political forces inside Russia.  It might just be some very inventive trolls-- possibly employed by an group with "interests in the outcome"-- screwing with our heads.

I have not one single clue how this situation-- if there even IS a situation-- will resolve itself.  I suspect it will just fade into the background noise.

January 19, 2018:  Nothing to sneeze at...

OK, it is ‘flu season again.  Did you get your shot?

One of the things you either forgot or were never taught was that in 1918 a killer strain of influenza spread worldwide within 6 months.  Approximately 6% of humanity died, and over a third of all living humans were infected.  Information was stifled on both sets of allied nations, so as not to reveal the disease’s impact on warfighting capability.

Back in 2008 I was heavily involved in researching the potential impact of an influenza pandemic, first on information technology in financial services, later as part of a team considering pandemic impacts on businesses in general. 

FEMA believed there would be multiple, unevenly distributed waves of infection, with possibly 90 million US infections.  They thought infection rates would be 20% for adults and 40% for children, with perhaps 2 million US deaths.  Projections indicated over 70% of enterprises moderate-severely disrupted experiencing 40% absenteeism for as long as eight weeks.  Some organizations were expected to experience +95% absentee rates.

 The very best epidemiologists in the world missed their projections, thankfully.  That H1N1 t ‘flu was milder, though more infectious, than expected, and impacted different demographics.  This was good, since the vaccines—and continuity of operations plans, were deficient.

I am not going to go into what we recommended to our clients who paid a LOT for the research.  I will note, though, that response plans were optimistic.  Damned few firms were willing to contemplate high death rates. 

After a while, I wasn’t with That Wonderful Firm anymore, but I kept up on continuity issues in general. You might want to keep these observations in mind:

• You will be on your own.  Civic services are likely to break down early. EVERYONE is going to try to hit their doctor, urgent care, or local hospital at roughly the same time.  Ambulances, EMT and rescue teams will be maxed-out.  Police resources will be stretched to the breaking point very early.  Your National Guard will probably be federalized out of your governor’s hands quite early.
• 
  
• Schools, adult-care, and some businesses, had a “close on suspicion” policy—even a rumor of a serious flu outbreak might end up with you being home with both your kids and elderly adults.  EVERYONE will log on at once, so don’t expect to work from home.
• 
  
• If you lose cable TV, the internet, power or water, it might be a longish time before it comes back.  Repair services are kept small since most utilities rely on support from firms not impacted by the “disaster”. EVERYONE will be affected by an epidemic or pandemic. 
• 
  
• ATM machines will empty quickly, as EVERYONE tries to make sure they have cash on hand.
• 
  
• Expect quarantines.  This will disrupt repair, and critically, food supplies.  Your town most likely has less than 4 days supply of food available. EVERYONE will panic after their kids miss their third meal.

There doesn’t seem to be any need to panic at all right now.  REPEAT:  there doesn’t seem to be any need to panic at all right now.  It is a good time, though, to review your general home (and business)  preparedness measures.

​

December 13, 2017: Whining about Bad Political Analysis.

OK, even more whining.  I gotta call out bad analysis when I see it. 

So far the major media-- Fox included-- have utterly missed the point: Most media polls were predicting a Democrat victory for most of the campaigns.  There were huge variances, but... Jones was generally the favorite of the pollsters, often by several percent..

I think it irresponsible to call this election an overwhelming victory for the Democrats.  Yes, indeed they won… by 1.54%.  Preliminary numbers indicate Jones took 49.92%, Moore 48.38%, not anywhere near a resounding victory—in sports I suspect it would be called a squeaker, won in the bottom of the ninth inning with a badly-fielded walk-off single.

Let Us Remember:

The Republican, Moore was considered by most to be the worst candidate in a generation, reportedly roundly disliked by his own local and national party leaders.  He defeated the National Republican Party’s hand-picked candidate in a late run-off.   Despite that, he lost by less than 2%

He faced an unending drumbeat of personal attacks from the mainstream news and talk-show powerhouse.  Despite that, he lost by less than 2%.

The Republican faced UNPROVEN allegations of sex-crimes during a rare bit of media and national outrage on the subject. Despite that, he lost by less than 2%.

The mainstream media reported that Democrats funneled huge amounts of out-of-state money to support their candidate, dramatically outspending the Republicans.  Despite that, he lost by less than 2%. 

None of this particularly points towards a broad-based surge in support for generic Democrat candidates in 2018.

Predictions: 

• Substantial irregularities will be found in the mail-in ballots, though I doubt it will be enough to toss it back. 
  
• It will be real hard for the Democrats to keep up their rate of spending while contesting the entire House and a third of the Senate in 2018. They will focus their money on a few key races, leaving many supposedly sure candidates without necessary support.
  
• Strident support from outsiders for a candidate will prove to be more damaging than supportive in 2018.
  

Notes:

(Problems with polling were discussed brilliantly by Nate Silver at https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-hell-is-happening-with-these-alabama-polls/amp/?__twitter_impression=true)

(Though we await Opensecrets.org's analysis, spending was discussed at (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/roy-moore-scandal-ignites-fundraising-explosion-democratic-challenger-doug-jones-n821961) 

December 1, 2017:  OK, this time I AM whining…

I am in the process of wasting part of my life car-shopping.

I do not want, or really need, to purchase a vehicle right now, and HATE shopping for cars.  We are searching because my current car, a Nissan Quest min-van, is no longer being produced-- and having been happy Pontiac and Saturn owners, we KNOW this is the time to cut and run, even though it is in fine condition, and one of us still likes it.

My main vehicular criteria? FITTING through the door.

Almost all vehicles now have canted their windscreens dropped their rooflines and narrowed their front doors enough to make access by a people with bad backs and other worn-out parts very difficult.  While I know it makes them more fuel efficient and safer in a roll-over, it also means I cannot drive them.  Sad to say, but car-makers also seem to be ignoring the trend that Americans Just Aren’t Getting Thinner.

I have tried 15 minivans and SUVs so far... only 3 were even marginally accessible. I have 4 more to try as soon as my back and knee recover... not to mention the bruise over my right ear from whacking my head on car roofs. 

Right now, my best, though limited, options seem to be some things on the truck-side of SUVs—some of which cost more, and are larger, than my first house. Can you spell YUCK, boys and girls?

I admire their perseverance, but salescritters kept trying to sell their Stuff to me, even when it was plainly obvious I did not, and could not, fit their offerings.  WHY should “great financing” matter in that case?  Their “customer service teams” just don’t seem to get the hint either… FOUR follow-up calls and multiple eMails for something I can’t use? 

​

​November 22, 2017:   TALK to them...

For once, this is a genealogical rant, and NOT a political one.  Tomorrow is Thanksgiving Day in the US, a chance for families and friends to get together, talk and maybe eat a bit too much.  Maybe.

Holidays are your prime chance to get the answers to family history questions like who is really related to who, where everyone lived, and the tiny, intimate details of everyday life that might bore YOU to tears, but will be fascinating to YOUR grandchildren.  Maybe you can even convince some of the Older Ones to take a genetic test... there are lots of tear-jerking reality TV shows that may have softened them up a bit.

You will hate yourself later if you let this chance pass you by.  With luck, genealogy will be less controversial than politics.

​Regardless of ANYTHING else, Happy Thanksgiving to All!

November 8, 2017:  Stop Whining...

Honestly, how can Republicans losing the Virginia and New Jersey governors' races be considered a surprise? You ARE kidding, right?  The amazing thing is how well Republicans did in two dominantly Democrat states, not how poorly.

Virginia was, and is, the Heart of the Swamp. Only six of their thirty-six Governors since Reconstruction ended in 1874 have been Republicans.  They hold grudges there, it seems.

Christie was a rare anticorruption anomaly in a state noted, shall we say, for procedural irregularities. No surprises here.  The previous four Governors of New Jersey were Democrats.

Keep in mind— your local candidates need money and support.  I was just faced with a supposedly non-partisan local election without a single Republican or Conservative option.  National money and data on supporters doesn't seem to have trickled down to the county level.

One of the key drivers in the Constitution is driving decision making back to the State and local level, so non-national races count in a big way.  We need to expect variation in policies, pick the best choice we can, and, if necessary, vote with our feet.

October 10, 2010:  ​​​​​​​​​​​​Before I get overtaken by Events...

This stuff would normally sit awhile (until I got a Clue, usually) , but I suspect I am about to be overtaken by events.

Lots of times I see tinder, and oxygen, but no spark.  So far.  These aren’t trends, or emerging events, but the substrate from whence such things might grow.  I haven’t even made a slide for these yet.  I am confident in the observations, but these are political projections, and anything might change at any time.  NOTHING is to be construed as investing advice… ever.

Observations:

• Web commerce has helped destroy retail jobs and commercial areas, devastating local economies and government revenue streams. 

• Several US-based “social media, eCommerce and web moguls” have expressed interest in running for the presidency in 2020.  Early statements indicate a common far-left, extreme Progressive stance. 

• There are allegations that intelligence agencies world-wide have used social media and eNews to manipulate government policies and elections.

 Projections: 

• All US web commerce will be subject to rigorously ENFORCED Federal or State sales taxes by no later than 2020.  The Federal sales tax will be applied where there is no state or local sales tax, and will be designated for job retraining and urban redevelopment.

• Shipping rates for web commerce will rise by 2018 as the “USPS subsidy” is phased out.

• Social media and eCommerce firms will come under detailed legal scrutiny world-wide by 2018 for monopolistic business outcomes—actions “tending to reduce competition”--  if not actual anti-competitive practices.

• Behind the scenes steps will be taken by governments, including actual cyber warfare, by 2018 to reduce or eliminate anonymous or untraceable web activities and mechanisms.
  

October 3, 2017:  Silly Opinions on Hurricane Relief Efforts.

​This is a disjointed  summary of several AMATEUR Facebook conversations on recovery efforts for Hurricane Maria, in Puerto Rico.  Thanks to everyone who took part. Many thanks to Google and Wikipedia.

A series of gross oversimplifications: 

Water is HEAVY: On average, people consume 10lbs of food & water a day. Might be more in tropics as water usage is higher. Water is HEAVY, and the first efforts were supplied by helicopters.

• Figure each helicopter has 30,000lbs total lift per flight, figure 25,000lbs after pallets/etc

• This means 25,000 pints of water, in effect, ROUGHLY ENOUGH FOR 300O PEOPLE per day, not counting washing or sanitation, per trip.  I seriously doubt that assault vessels carry, or have storage room for, much by way of emergency relief supplies.  Warfare stuff, yes… baby formula, no.

• There were a limited number of helicopters... 42 is the design maximum capacity of an LHD (Landing Helicopter Dock, our multipurpose amphibious assault ships), not all being cargo carrying types.  Katrina Relief, from the USS Iwo Jima, was reportedly about 1000 flight operations TOTAL.

• I figure an hour a trip, daylight operations only. (No hovercraft on the ships that got there first.) Maximum sortie rates seem curiously missing, but overall rates for comparable NATO warships seem about 100/day.  (It costs something like $20,000 per flight hour per copter). IIRC, it takes 6 hours of maintenance for every hour of flight time... (may be dated... that was 1990s era).

Airports weren't open yet. Airdrop capability is a small fraction of what it was during the Cold War, and THAT is US based...NC, GA, we think.  What I have read leads me to think that military airlift is in critically short supply even for day-to-day operations.   No one has ever managed to supply something the size of PR by air. (The Berlin Airlift just slowed the rate of starvation to manageable levels. Mostly carried coal dust for winter heating and grain.)

Most US cities have around 3 days supply of food. I suspect PR, being an island, had a bit more, but not much more. The grocery industry is optimized for fast, even, throughput, and almost nothing sits in warehouses for more than a few days. "Just in time" manufacturing and process optimization means there is almost no slack, and a lot of delays means hungry people. (Some of us discovered during pandemic planning that, using history as a guide, food riots start within a week of a strict quarantine. The similarity between pandemics and PR imilarity is that disaster planners generally have unaffected are contiguous to them to stage first wave recovery from. The mainland is too far away to be an easy recovery base... it is like recovering in Chicago from NYC.) I have been digging around, and can't find much about disaster recovery on THIS scale. I hope the WW2 playbooks are still available. WW3 planning assumed cities were gone, but road/rail intact except for major switching centers. There was nothing public about planning for event like this, though.

Why no local military-lead recovery?  Armed forces are optimized to destroy things, and are already heavily over-tasked. The National Guard has been focused on war fighting.  The regular armed forces were severely cut post-Cold War, and were never designed to do this in the first place. There was massive base-closing from 1988-2005, to “save money”.  PR forced closure of navy bases there years ago, redeveloping the property for tourism.  EVERYHING has to be shipped in from unaffected areas, by ships that had to go around a hurricane headed up along the coast.

In short, not much can get to non-coastal areas until the harbors and roads are open.  How long does it take to get roads open if ALL roads & bridges down? Years. Longer than it took to build them in the first place. There used to be sea-transportable water treatment plants... concrete plants too. This work is dominantly done now by contractors ("mercenaries and war profiteers" according to media) and STILL has to be assembled and shipped in.

I am still wondering how/ where on debris removal... massive chipper/grinders, and equally big trucks (and fuel, and...) to haul them. All must be imported. Opening the ports and roads is the FIRST priority, as everything hangs from it.

September 12, 2017:  Can you trust your search engine results?

​PROJECTION: the influence of social media magnates on elections will be the surprise element and key scandal in the US’s 2018 mid-term elections, starting no later than December 2017.
Most of us know that media sources have definite political agendas, even if they refuse to admit it, but may be surprised to think that we are “getting the wrong answers” when we look things up online.

• There are a lot of allegations, and some proof, that Certain Social Media Companies are stifling debate, skewing their news feeds, and spinning search results based on the political opinions, and perhaps ambitions, of their management. 
• Overall public confidence in the news media and polling firms is already low, with each political faction having distinct preferred and hated sources. 
• Allegations that the “same bicoastal elite that controls the media” is controlling the flow of information through electronic means will further polarize and alienate the public in general, and “conservative factions” in particular.

Test:  I freely admit I drink too much coffee and think too much about this sort of stuff.  Sooo--- here is a chance for YOU to figure out if it is time for decaf and a new hobby.

• Run identical searches for some divisive political trend or controversial event on Google, Bing (who keep track of your searches), Duckduckgo and Startpage (who claim NOT keep track of your searches), or any other search engine you are fond of, at least three days in a row. Note the story, Headline, source and spin. 
  
• Repeat the exercise at least once.
• Compare the results for the first, tenth and 100th return they give.  Are they “fair and balanced”?  Do the results for the same search change over time?
• Decide for yourself what the implications of this might be.
  

I would be delighted to be wrong about this.

August 21, 2017:  Eclipse notwithstanding, same sandwich, different day.

Those of you unfortunate enough to have worked with me might remember how I always kept a slide-deck of “Emerging Situations” prepared and updated, on the odd chance that they would be useful.  Sort of like having a few backup ammunition magazines in your pocket.  Catchy graphic, a solid soundbite for the lead, and fill the notes sections with observations.  Often, being seen as smart just means being slightly better prepared.

I was updating a slide the other day (what made you think I would stop?) and noticed that, to my surprise, nothing had changed except, maybe, the names of some of the players.  Some of these “emerging” situations have been bubbling away for 10 or more years without coming to an actionable crisis.  Some of them have been in place for hundreds of years without resolution.

Honestly, the chance of Civil War breaking out anytime soon is effectively zero.  Gang wars aside, there seems to be less violence going on right now than after a disputed sporting event.  The media is playing you for a sucker… the side most generally supportive of “law and order” just isn’t all that likely to start fighting in the street. 

Coup d’Etat? The chance that the Progressive Left will instigate and lead a military coup in their favor is so remote that it isn’t even laughable.

Pre 2018 Impeachment?  This requires indictment by the Republican-dominated House Committee on the Judiciary and passage by a simple majority of the Republican-held House.  Prosecutors need a two-thirds vote in the still-Republican Senate.  Holding your breath?  Please don’t fall over here.

You are the victim of a media desperately trying to retain their relevance and income streams.  Think they are unfair or deliberately misleading?  Complain to their advertisers.  NOTHING else, short term, will work.

​July 20, 2017:  OK, I lied about the updates.

Actually, the reader count is near zero these days, and I didn’t want to write anything inflammatory to boost ratings.  Sorry.  Too hot to think here in the Triangle right now.  I watered some plantings at dawn this morning, and sweated through my gear within minutes.

Some idle thoughts:

Sudden family things and general busyness dragged our butts back up to the Imperial City area this week, really for the first time in three or so years.  I was surprised at the large number of vacant stores and business locations right next to new and ongoing construction for both in the People’s Republics of Connecticut and Westchester.  Back from the coast a bit, many empty storefronts and dead businesses, though.  Small, locally-owned firms seemed to be the worst hit. 

The divergence between rich and un-rich seems to be growing, at least as evidenced by a long drive down Route 1, along the coast.  Residential construction (old reflexes die hard, I guess...still looking for that sea-front fixer-upper) seemed to be centered on that uneasy border between “McMansion” and “Imperial Palaces”.  Some Amazing Things are being built, so I guess money is still no object for some, despite the State wobbling toward bankruptcy. 

The cash being poured into infrastructure, though seems limitless.  I lived in that area for 50+ years and NEVER saw the roads in such good shape.  Some of I-95, though, seems to have been under repair and renovation since 1980.  Rush hour southbound from New Haven was still bumper-to-bumper, with hot and cold running maniacs, at 11:00 AM.  I had the supreme joy of sitting in traffic next to a bright yellow supercar of some sort as we moved, inch by inch, southward.

I was surprised to hear political talk at the craft show we attended, some quite vicious, all from the Left.  Several well-groomed Shiny Folk were loudly assuring each other that they had unfriended and ostracized former friends and relations that were “Republicans.”  One was “terrified” that there might be Republicans still working at his firm. I behaved myself, remembering that most of us had left the state already, and the remainders probably had status as Protected Species.  As an economic note, VERY few people seemed to actually be buying anything.  Except us, of course.

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​​May 22, 2017:  Sort of a placeholder...

My apologies for the lack of blogging.  I have been editing and rewriting a 200+ page matrilineal family history, running back to 1860ish.  All descendants of Mary Elizabeth McCabe, roughly 1840, with all descendants of all lines (and all lines run back to emigration to the US), detailed up to the 1940 US Federal Census, with scanned copies of 90+% of the vital records on thumbdrives.  I tried to read the new Irish Parish Records, but some of the entries seem to have been written by someone holding the pen between their toes, while running to their next appointment.  I will never again accept criticism of MY handwriting.  Ever.

My old Editor will be happy to know that I gave up my careful, surgical approach to the existing text, and am now wielding the literary equivalent of a claymore.  Huge bloody chunks of explanatory text, open research questions, careful drawing and detailed tables of dates and locations are now buried deep in appendices, most likely never to be seen again.  Careful discussions of research protocols methodological considerations? Gone out back somewhere.  Bye! Interesting explanations of who did what, where are now reduced to "All Descendants of.." charts.  Very soothing.  All speculation is now clearly marked as such, and Genealogical Proof Standards are pretty much adhered to, most of the time. (That is what I am working on now…)

Moving to a straight matrilineal approach, aimed at my sisters' daughters' yet unborn daughters focused things wonderfully-- got rid of 60+ pages of yDNA stuff, pushed into a free-standing document of its own.  This will eventually become an essay on history, viewed from my yDNA haplogroup.  There is a LOT of new research on the settlement of Europe that I need to assimilate and digest. 

I should be back shortly.  Honest.

March 7, 2017:  What happens to politics when voters “cannot” forget?

I have been watch both the repeal of the soi-dissant “Affordable Care Act” and the media slug-fest about Possible Impacts of Evil Russians on the political process with increasing… I don’t know, maybe puzzlement is the best word.

My confusion does not relate to who is on each of the many sides in either scuffle—more with the implications on future political discourse when everything a politician has said on camera, tweeted or written is instantly metatagged and stuffed in a database.  We have already seen this to some extent in the last two POTUS campaigns, and recent confirmation hearings.  The “Russian Ambassador” meme is now widespread and still humorous.  It may just have killed off, or limited, that investigation.

Projections:

The ready availability of previous statements will stiffen position-holding, making compromise and deal-making extremely difficult.  Politicians may find themselves unable to adjust their positions as things change and their understanding improves.  This will be very bad, several steps worse than political correctness.   

Politicians will drain their rhetoric of anything that might be held against them in the future, rendering the essential discourse of their role as innocuous as an elevator conversation about the weather. Adaptability to circumstances is admirable, but hard to defend to a constituency that really doesn’t want to pay attention, and expects stuff not to change.

It will be progressively harder to get people to run for office, or fill roles requiring confirmation. We are already seeing this.  Would you volunteer to have every tweet and statement you have made examined by people who need to prove you are uniquely unsuitable for a job?

I expect to keep chewing on this without result for quite a while, and will try not to bother you too much with it.

February 12, 2017:  Post-Election Stress Disorder?

OK, it is well past the 2016 POTUS Election, and maybe, just maybe, too soon by a couple of days to start morbidly obsessing about the midterm elections.  Really.

The whole damned thing, from the soft jerky start to shuddering, late-night finish was an adrenalin surge for all sides, in many ways like riding a bicycle, blindfolded, down a stairwell.  Bumps, jumps, unexpected turns then sudden quiet.  I think I, a feckless amateur, was paying 4 hours a day of rapt attention, not counting time spent writing snaky Facebook posts and Tweets. 

Many of us have are trying to fill the sudden hole in our lives by recreating the excitement and remembered drama, picking fights over trivia.  Folks seem to miss the heady, soul-filling taste of Us against Them.  Life-as-usual is… dull.

We have figured it out by now:  you don’t like us, we don’t like you, other parties don’t like either of us, and in a short time no one will care.  Again.  ALL the old coalitions we call political parties are in turmoil, and are either realigning or breaking up.  Got it.  Understood.  We used to call this “business as usual.”

A civil war is NOT starting, and it is just NOT the End of the World as We Knew It.  The disturbances I am seeing on The Noisy Box seem, honestly, like a low-budget “reality” drama, thrown together at the last minute in a desperate attempt to keep our eyes glued to the screen and our brains unfocused, watching advertising. From here, the plot looks rather thin, and the characters need a lot of work.

The main-stream media is terrified of losing your attention, and the revenue YOU generate.  Expect all sorts of manufactured crises in the next few months.

February 5, 2017:  Why do people listen to actors and comedians?

“WAKE UP & JOIN THE RESISTANCE. ONCE THE MILITARY IS W US FASCISTS GET OVERTHROWN. MAD KING & HIS HANDLERS GO BYE BYE”

Some Wonderful Person, a TV comedian seemingly, has called for a military coup ‘etat to “overthrow the Fascists”.  IF you were looking for a single, paradigmatic example of how far removed the Progressives and Liberals are from reality, this would be a good choice. 

If putsch comes to shove, there are some hard realities:

·         Active-duty US military and veteran voters overwhelmingly supported DJT… the last poll I saw on the subject, November 22, 2016, showed a 3 to 1 lead for Trump over Clinton in that segment.  Exit polls reportedly showed veterans supported Trump by a 2 to 1 margin.  Absent major, provable, well-documented and generally-accepted threats to the US Constitution, that comedian and her friends are going to have a long wait.

•       Democrats and Progressives clump.  City lab.com came up with a remarkable statistic:  , “below 800 people per square mile, there is a 66% chance that you voted Republican. Above 800 people per square mile, there is a 66% chance that you voted Democrat.”  Democrats are “generally” concentrated in and around certain major urban areas.  In general, these have less than days’ supply of food, and tenuous water supplies.  Power lines into cities are large, and impossible to defend.  Republicans are highly dispersed.  With extremely limited and unreliable data, I think far more “preppers” Lean Republican than Democrat.  Military bases tend to be rather remote from major urban conglomerations, rendering "marching shoulder-to-shoulder into That Golden Dawn" an unlikely way to garner their support.

•       Firearms are cumulative and permanent.  I have some usable firearms that are fairly close to a century old.  Note that while recent numbers show a decline in firearms purchases (OPINION:  price-gouging is a current industry reality.)  Gallup polls from 2010 show only 20% of Democrats admit to owning a firearm, on a dropping trendline, while over half of Republicans admit to owning firearms, on a rising trendline.  Overall, Obama and Clinton were the best sales drivers for firearms purchases in recent American history.

I suspect that the Idiot Remarks In Question do not reflect the majority thought in either the population as a whole, or in its Democrat-leaning segments, but wonder if I am wrong in discounting the role of Such People in thought-leadership for likely voters over time.

The 2018 races—just over 20 months away—are looking to be even more important than we thought.  What are you doing to secure the blessings of Liberty?

​January 22, 20117:  Watching the Snowflakes melt…
After a while you begin to wonder... did Snowflakes flunk Civics? Did they remember the Electoral College?  Are they able to Google-search what it takes to change the US Constitution? Can they count how few states where they hold the statehouse, and control both chambers of the state legislature?

First, the Congress seems to be doing its level best to ignore the various State Calls for an Article 5 Constitutional Convention.  Since there is no specified time limit on calls, the necessary two-thirds majority of States Calling the Convention has long ago been met.  Keep in mind that there are NO limits on what can come out of such a Convention. I leave speculation on this to my readers.

Second, the way most folks think of it, is by the proposed Amendment to pass the House AND Senate by a two-thirds vote. Please note that the Republicans can block any Amendment now, without necessarily being able to pass one against opposition.  The proposed Amendment must then be sent by Congress to either the State legislatures or special State ratifying conventions.  If ratified by THREE Quarters (38) of the States.  Constitutionally, there is NO time limit on ratification, though the Amendment MAY include such a limit in its text.

In either event, 34 States can Call for an Amendment, and 38 must ratify it 

Finally, right now, Republicans hold the presidency, and have effective control of the House and Senate.  Democrats hold the statehouse and legislatures of FIVE (5) (ONE TENTH) of the States, Republicans have full control of TWENTY FIVE States.

The 2018 races are IMPORTANT, and the campaigns have already begun.

January 6, 2017:  More Post-Election Thoughts.

Okay, Congress assembled, and counted the Electoral College votes, and we can exhale.  What next?

1-- Reminder: make sure you have signed up for your congresscritters’ Twitter feeds, and pay attention to them.  Bookmark their websites too.  Hold them immediately accountable for their actions.  ONE day of reading MY congressman’s tweets made me resolve to double my campaign contribution to his opponent.

2- Keep focused: You have probably stopped obsessing over the news.  THIS is why we lost in 2008 and 2012.  Capture and update stories of wrong-doing and malfeasance so you have them ready at hand when needed.

3-  Watch your flanks:  migration away from the bicoastal cesspits continues, which may change the characteristics of your voting district and area in odd ways. Keep alert for changes.  My “new 55+ community” might be big enough to swing a local election on its own when building ends in two years.  Note that it was TWO YEARS before anyone from our local party contacted us, though we registered to vote within days of moving... please don't let potential new voters feel unloved.

4-  Volunteer: Younger readers should consider running for local office in 2018, or volunteering for duty on public boards and groups, especially those related to education.  Older readers should keep their checkbooks handy and back Likely Young Pups with money.

5- Put your money where your heart is.  I have ceased doing business with some firms whose leaders’ politics I find repulsive.

6-  Why do you watch people who hate you?  I am near the last of people to suggest NOT watching opposition news, but just following their twitter feeds instead of watching their broadcasts eventually cuts down their revenue from commercials.

Hopefully I can get back to interesting things in my next entry.  “Pitchers and Catchers Call” is coming up soon… and I need to do a Daily Rant on genetics in genealogy research.

November 10, 2016:  Some post-Election Day thoughts…

1- It isn't over. Set up a 2017 budget, even a little one, to save up for campaign contributions to the candidate of your choice.  They even notice $100 contributions. $1,000 to a state or local-level race can make you New Friends.  FOLLOW ALL THE RULES.

2- Get on the email list of your political servants. Pay at least a small amount of attention to what they do. SEND THEM A PERSONAL E-MAIL WHEN THEY SCREW UP OR DO SOMETHNG GOOD.  You have opinions on Facebook... send them to your employee. Friend or follow them on Facebook.  Praise good actions on your blog.

3-  Be Prepared to help.  You know how the Mysterious Background Figures and Influencers in politics got there?  Many offered research and opinion to Congressional and Legislative staffers, and proved to be reliable.  Most of my readers are experts in SOMETHING… many of you are reliable.  ALL of you have opinions.  Offer them.   

4- Use it or lose it.  OK, you bought a firearm. Learn to use it. Training is readily available, and usually quite inexpensive. As a hobby, it is cheaper than golf.

4-  Speak up. There WILL be a propaganda war against you. Fight it with facts. Be relentless in defense.  Do not let them control the narrative.

5- Gloat not, lest gloater become gloatee.

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​​​​​​​​Welcome to the Briarpatch...

I am Richard J. ("Rick") DeLotto, MBA, former knowledge wrangler, ignorance manager, Cassandrist, competitive intelligence worker and research analyst... currently wandering around unattended exercising my curiosity.  This is almost indistinguishable from being retired.​

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